Mojtaba vs Khomeini: Who leads Iran after Khamenei?
DUBAI, U.A.E.: Iran's top clerics are quietly accelerating succession plans for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was threatened with assassination by Israel and the United States during the recent 12-days of conflict. The 86-year-old figurehead has ruled the Islamic Republic for over three decades.
The push has gained urgency following Israel's attacks on Iran and public threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. According to five sources with knowledge of the matter, a three-man committee—formed two years ago by Khamenei himself—has intensified its work to choose his replacement. Khamenei moved into hiding with his family, under the protection of an elite Revolutionary Guards unit, prior to the announcement on Tuesday of a ceasefire. He is believed to have remained in hiding and is being briefed regularly on the succession talks.
If Khamenei is killed at any time, Iran's leadership aims to immediately name a successor to project stability, though insiders admit the path ahead is uncertain.
Two candidates have emerged as frontrunners. The first is Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, long seen as the continuity choice. The second is Hassan Khomeini, the reformist-leaning grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic.
Though Mojtaba, 56, has never held a formal position, he wields influence behind the scenes as a gatekeeper to his father and is known for echoing the elder Khamenei's hardline positions. Hassan Khomeini, 53, by contrast, is a respected cleric with ties to Iran's reformist faction and is viewed as a more moderate option.
"I once again humbly express that this small and insignificant servant of the Iranian people stands ready to proudly be present on any front or scene you deem necessary," Khomeini said in a message of support to Khamenei over the weekend, just hours before the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites.
Sources say Khomeini's name has gained traction amid the escalating conflict because he might present a more conciliatory face to both domestic and foreign audiences. While loyalty to the revolution's founding principles remains a prerequisite, some insiders say the leadership is also weighing public sentiment and international optics.
Choosing a new Supreme Leader may prove difficult under current circumstances. Several senior Revolutionary Guards commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes, complicating any transition. Analysts say it's unclear whether any successor could command the same authority Khamenei consolidated over the years.
Planning for succession had been ongoing due to Khamenei's age and health, but the Israeli and American attacks have dramatically increased the stakes. "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding," Trump said on social media last week. "He is an easy target."
Khamenei has publicly resisted the idea of Mojtaba taking over, worried about perceptions of hereditary rule—a concept Iran overthrew in 1979. The Supreme Leader is formally chosen by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body whose candidates are vetted by a hardline watchdog group aligned with Khamenei.
"The regime has to opt for someone who'll facilitate slow transition," said Iranian political analyst Hossein Rassam, who noted that Hassan Khomeini could steer Iran in a new direction. Khomeini was barred from running for the Assembly of Experts in 2016 due to his reformist ties. Still, his name remains widely respected among both clerics and the public.
Mojtaba's staunch alignment with hardline ideology may prove risky in today's climate. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned him in 2019, saying he represented the Supreme Leader "in an official capacity despite never being elected or appointed."
Other potential successors have died or been sidelined. Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in 2024; former judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi and ex-president Hashemi Rafsanjani died earlier. Some, like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, remain in contention but have fallen behind.
"There's a chance they choose someone unknown who won't wield real power," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. That would leave control largely in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards.
Still, as Iran braces for the possibility of a post-Khamenei era, officials know the stakes are immense. Whether the Islamic Republic survives in its current form may depend not just on who comes next—but on how the handover is handled.
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