Mild US Inflation Is Backdrop for Fed's Powell on the Hill

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5 hours ago

(Bloomberg) -- US inflation probably inched higher in May, offering scant evidence of extensive tariff-related repercussions that the Federal Reserve expects to become more apparent later in the year.
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Ahead of the key figures on Friday and fresh off the Fed's decision this week to keep interest rates unchanged, Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill for two days of testimony in which he'll lay out the case, again, for the central bank's go-slow policy approach. The Fed chair is likely to emphasize that while rate cuts are possible this year, officials want more clarity on the economic impact of White House trade policy.
Economists see the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation — rising 0.1% in May for a third month. That would mark the tamest three-month stretch since the pandemic five years ago.
US central bankers largely see the Trump administration's expanded use of tariffs putting upward pressure on prices, eventually. But their latest economic forecasts also show officials see weaker economic growth and higher unemployment this year.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Friday told CNBC that the inflation hit from import duties is likely to be short-lived, and he sees room to resume lowering borrowing costs as soon as next month. The Fed's next policy decision will come on July 30.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
'The Fed's preferred gauge, core PCE inflation, likely rose just 2 basis points in May, a modest uptick that will offer little clarity about upside risks to inflation in coming months. That's likely to leave some Fed officials still balancing the two sides of its mandate, rather than shifting focus to upside inflation risks.'
— Estelle Ou, Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger and Chris G. Collins, economists. For full analysis, click here
Along with the May inflation data, the government's report on Friday is projected to show a second month of modest growth in household spending on goods and services. The last two months included a steep downturn in sentiment, related in part to heightened anxiety about the possible impact on prices from higher tariffs.
Economists will also look to the report's personal income data to gauge the ability of consumers to continue spending. In the three months through April, inflation-adjusted disposable income growth averaged 0.6%, the strongest in more than two years.
Other US data in the coming week includes May existing- and new-home sales, as well as two surveys of June consumer confidence. On Thursday, the government will issue its advance economic indicators report that includes an initial estimate of the merchandise trade deficit for May.
In addition to Powell delivering the Fed's semi-annual policy report — he testifies to a House panel on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday — a slew of other central bankers, including New York Fed President John Williams, hit the public speaking circuit.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics' full Week Ahead for the US
Further north, Statistics Canada will release the first of two inflation prints before the Bank of Canada's July rate decision. Policymakers are closely watching firmer-than-expected core inflation and have signaled they'll remain on hold unless underlying price pressures ease.
Industry-based gross domestic product data for April and a flash estimate for May are likely to show a pullback in exports and business investment as Trump's tariffs took hold.
Elsewhere, multiple inflation releases in Asia, appearances by the euro-zone and UK central bank chiefs, and a prospective rate cut in Mexico may be among the highlights.
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what's coming up in the global economy.
Asia
It's a data-heavy week in Asia, with inflation figures due from four economies as well as fresh reads on industrial output, trade and consumer demand.
For investors navigating geopolitical flare-ups and a fragmenting trade environment, the week's releases will offer timely clues about inflation persistence, consumer strength, and industrial momentum across Asia's most influential economies.
Price prints from Singapore, Malaysia and Australia will help guide central banks as they tread cautiously on rate decisions. Singapore reports CPI on Monday, followed by Malaysia on Tuesday and Australia on Wednesday. Tokyo CPI — a leading indicator for Japan's nationwide gauge of prices — is due Friday.
Beyond inflation, the slate offers insight into how Asia's trade-driven economies are faring amid global demand shifts. Early in the week, Australia, India and Japan report purchasing manager indexes, while South Korea releases confidence and sentiment surveys, along with exports and retail sales.
Singapore's May industrial production data, due on Thursday, will help shed some light on domestic resilience. China publishes industrial profits on Friday, giving investors a read on margin recovery as the economy adjusts to trade frictions and a still-weak property sector.
With stimulus measures limited and external demand cooling, Beijing is leaning on targeted support to maintain growth near its official target.
Japan will report retail sales and the jobless rate Friday, which together with Tokyo CPI will help inform the Bank of Japan's next policy moves. The BOJ just left rates unchanged and unveiled a plan to step back from the bond market at a slower pace from next year.
Thailand's central bank is expected to hold its key rate steady on Tuesday, with car sales and manufacturing data rounding out its domestic picture.
The decision comes amid domestic political upheaval after the second-largest party in Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's government quit the ruling coalition, an outcome that may concern foreign investors who've dumped a net $2.3 billion of Thai stocks this year.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics' full Week Ahead for Asia
Europe, Middle East, Africa
Business surveys and testimony by central bankers are among the highlights in the euro zone and the UK this week. The flash PMIs for June, due on Monday, will point to whether manufacturing and services are weathering the uncertainty posed by US tariff policies.
Germany's Ifo gauge of business sentiment comes the following day, revealing how companies in the region's biggest economy are faring with trade stress in the initial months of Friedrich Merz's term as chancellor. Meanwhile, inflation numbers for France and Spain — the first major readings for June — are due on Friday.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak in the European Parliament on Monday, and a dozen or so other appearances by euro-area policymakers are on the calendar.
Bank of England officials will also be out in force, with more than 10 appearances on the agenda. Among them, Governor Andrew Bailey will testify on Tuesday to the House of Lords, parliament's upper house. Views on a dramatic drop in UK retail sales may be eagerly awaited by investors.
In Sweden, the Riksbank will release minutes of its decision to resume its rate-cutting cycle.
Bulgaria's application to join the euro may advance on Thursday, with European Union leaders set to approve convergence reports on the country's readiness to adopt the currency. Ukraine's statisticians will release first-quarter growth numbers during the week.
The South African Reserve Bank will publish its quarterly bulletin on Thursday, providing data on household debt and shedding light on whether the government achieved its first back-to-back primary surplus since 2008-09.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics' full Week Ahead for EMEA
Some monetary decisions are also on the calendar:
With an inflation rate that's way below the central bank's target for 2025, Moroccan officials will most likely cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points on Tuesday to boost financing for an investment spree led by preparations to co-host the FIFA World Cup in 2030.
The same day, Hungary's central bank is poised to keep its key rate unchanged for a ninth month due to inflation and geopolitical risks.
Czech policymakers, in a decision on Wednesday, are likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged.
Latin America
Argentina's output report on Monday is likely to show that the economy expanded for a third straight quarter in the three months through March.
Most analysts see faster growth through mid-year, and the consensus puts 2025's expansion at 5%.
Analysts expect Mexico's mid-month inflation rate to have slowed, paving the way for Banxico's eighth straight rate cut Thursday.
Also due from Latin America's No. 2 economy are retail sales, jobs data and the April GDP-proxy reading.
Brazil's central bank on Tuesday posts the minutes of its June rate meeting. The BCB delivered a seventh straight hike, to 15%, and signaled that borrowing costs will likely remain steady for a long period.
Brazil watchers can also look forward to the central bank's quarterly monetary policy report, national unemployment data and mid-month consumer prices data, along with a reading of the country's broadest measure of inflation.
Colombia's central bankers meeting on Friday may see a bit of daylight for a second straight cut as May consumer prices data were better than expected, but the early call from analysts is for a hold at 9.25%
In Paraguay, the central bank isn't expected to tinker with its 6% policy rate on Tuesday, even after May inflation slowed to 3.6%.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics' full Week Ahead for Latin America
--With assistance from Swati Pandey, Mark Evans, Laura Dhillon Kane, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Ros Krasny and Souhail Karam.
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