Kelly McKinney: The power blackout in Spain and Portugal wasn't a fluke. It was the future.
While understandable, the immediate obsessive search for the cause — whether cyberattack, software error or rare atmospheric phenomenon — missed the point. In tightly coupled, highly complex systems like the European energy grid, the next catastrophe is not caused. It is triggered.
Over the past 2 1½ decades in the disaster business in New York City, I've watched weather systems, electrical grids, transit systems and terrorist networks overwhelm the best-laid plans. And I've come to understand what physicists and systems theorists have known for years: In complex systems, disaster is not the exception; it's the destination.
Back in the 1990s, Danish physicist Per Bak proposed a theory he called self-organized criticality. His insight was that complex systems — whether electrical power systems, cities, economies or even ecosystems — inevitably organize themselves into fragile states. As connections grow and efficiency increases, the margin for error disappears. One small, almost trivial fault can suddenly cascade into a continent-wide collapse. Not because the fault is catastrophic — but because the system itself evolves into the crosshairs of catastrophe.
This is what happened in Spain and Portugal. And it will happen again.
In his landmark work 'Normal Accidents,' sociologist Charles Perrow explained why. Systems like telecommunications networks or national power grids aren't just complicated — they're 'tightly coupled,' meaning that one failure rapidly affects the next. The result is failure that is not only probable — but normal. Trying to find and eliminate every possible fault is a fool's errand. You can't debug your way out of systemic risk.
This concept might seem abstract unless you happen to be on the hook to solve the issues and unmet needs of the millions trapped in the blackout. The elderly patient whose ventilator shut down. The train passenger stuck underground. The nurse working by flashlight. The grocery store that lost everything in the dark.
We are used to thinking of disasters as external shocks — terrorist attacks, hurricanes, pandemics. But more and more, the disasters we face are emergent properties of the systems we've built. Lean, efficient, interconnected infrastructures may work beautifully on a good day. But they break spectacularly on a bad one.
Statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his influential work 'The Black Swan,' calls the world where low-probability, high-impact events dominate 'Extremistan.' In Extremistan, what seems improbable happens regularly. What seems stable collapses without warning. And what seems isolated is deeply, dangerously connected. I hate to break it to you, but we live in Extremistan now. So what should we be doing about it?
First, we must stop debating probabilities. Catastrophic failures are not rare. They are built in. The question is not if another system will collapse — but when and how many others will collapse with it.
Second, we must shift from an optimization to a resilience mindset. The critical infrastructure that sustains daily life — transportation, communications, water and wastewater, energy, food, health care — must be rendered able to absorb shocks and keep functioning, not just on paper but in practice. That means slack in the system. Redundancy. Cross-training. Manual overrides. And a professional emergency management class empowered to plan, rehearse and lead.
And finally, we must prepare for the moment of truth — that first hour when the system breaks, and the response begins. That hour is not a drill. It is life or death for the vulnerable, the elderly, those with access and functional needs, the isolated. And if we are not ready, it will be too late.
The Iberian blackout was not a one-off. It was not a fluke. It was a signal from the future, sent in the language of darkness. Our job is to listen — and act — before the next black swan comes.
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CNBC
3 hours ago
- CNBC
How Putin could try to outmaneuver Trump when they meet
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Ukraine and its European allies (who have not been invited to the talks) also argue that Putin is not serious about ending the conflict of more than three years. Kyiv's leadership also claimed this week that intelligence suggests Russia is preparing to mount new offensives , rather than preparing for a ceasefire or peace. CNBC contacted the Kremlin for a response to the claims and is awaiting a response. Military analysts cited several reasons that Russia might not want to end the war before it needs to, such as its forces' relatively advantageous position on the battlefield despite high attrition rates; entrenched position in Russian-occupied regions in the south and east of Ukraine; and ability to throw more manpower into the fight. Maximum concessions It's therefore likely that Putin will try to extract the as many concessions and benefits for Russia as he can from the United States when he sets foot on American soil for the first time in almost a decade. "The Russian side will likely seek to broaden the agenda beyond Ukraine, emphasizing the potential for strategic geopolitical and economic cooperation — including lucrative energy deals and potential arms control or strategic weapons treaties," Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo, said in emailed comments this week. "The Kremlin likely hopes that the transactional nature of Trump's approach to foreign policy will help advance Putin's objectives in Ukraine, such as territorial concessions, restrictions on Ukraine's sovereignty and military capabilities, and replacement of its political leadership," he added. The Kremlin's awareness of Trump's transactional nature when it comes to deal-making is likely to underscore how Putin approaches him during talks, and Putin is a skilled negotiator, according to Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard. "Putin is always skillful in using 'give and take,'" he told CNBC's " Squawk Box Europe " on Monday. "True, Putin's got a big win [by being invited to Alaska] and securing negotiations on a deal before a ceasefire," he said, "but he's given Trump something." "He's given the impression that Trump's hardline has worked, that Putin has offered concessions on territorial swaps ... and that's already a sign of this skillful 'give and take' — or illusion of 'give and take'' —which President Putin has deployed so successfully on many occasions in the past," he said. Trump showed weakness A potential source of weakness for Trump as he heads into the meeting is that Putin will recognize that the U.S. president has, despite repeated threats, resisted heaping more punitive sanctions on Moscow even though it refused a ceasefire with Ukraine that was supported by both Washington and Kyiv. In fact, Trump has so far preferred to punish Russia's friends and trading partners such as its oil buyer India — rather than Russia itself — with higher tariffs and the threat of "secondary sanctions." "Putin is smart enough to recognize that Trump is turning up the heat, but it's very significant that Trump decided to turn up the heat on his friend [Prime Minister] Narendra Modi in India, and not on Putin himself," Fordham told CNBC. "It tells us that President Trump is very reluctant to actually put the pressure directly on Putin, so much so that he's willing to jeopardize this relationship with India, which is a hugely important ally within the wider context of U.S.-China relations," she added. Trump has also been accused of showing his cards to Russia by suggesting that Washington could entertain the notion of Ukraine "swapping" some territory with its neighbor, a suggestion that has provoked consternation in Europe, which has urged Trump not to concede too much to Putin. Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy chief, told CNBC on Tuesday that Putin was stringing Trump along and was just " pretending to negotiate ." CNBC has asked the Kremlin to respond to the claim. Russia's economy helps But although Putin appears to be entering the talks from a position of strength rather than weakness — a position not many global leaders find themselves in when meeting Trump — the Russian president could arguably be looking for an off-ramp as Russia's economy and citizens labor under the weight of international sanctions, labor shortages and rampant inflation, which even Putin described as "alarming." ″[Putin] starts from a relatively strong position on the battlefield. They're advancing," Richard Portes, head of the economics faculty at the London Business School, told CNBC Monday. "On the other hand, from the economic point of view, he starts from a weak position. The Russian economy is not in very good shape. They're running a significant fiscal deficit, partly because oil revenues are down very substantially, oil and gas [are down] because of the oil price. And ... this is a weak economy," Portes told CNBC's " Europe Early Edition. " Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. trade representative, told CNBC that Putin could agree to a ceasefire, but only if Trump offers serious concessions on Russia's oil exports, which have come under sanctions and restrictions, including an oil price cap. "I think if Putin comes in and says, 'Alright, I'm willing to accept a ceasefire, but you got to relieve the pressure on my oil sales,' well, that's a deal that that could be talked about, right? That's the president using leverage to get Putin to come to the table, to do something he was not willing to do before, which is to accept an unconditional ceasefire, and that would put an end to the fighting." "If the president is able to come back from Alaska with a ceasefire, that will be a significant achievement, if it they start getting into trading territory at Ukraine's expense, then it's not going to be a very good or sustainable agreement," Froman said.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
White House lands on Trump-Putin summit location as officials race to prepare for historic Alaska meeting
American officials scrambling this weekend to identify and lock down a venue for Friday's summit between President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart quickly discovered a major snag: summertime is peak tourist season in Alaska, and options both available and equipped to host the two world leaders were severely limited. When word reached certain prominent Alaskans that Trump and Putin were coming, a few began reaching out to the president's allies with a proposition: could their home be an option? It's unclear if those offers ever reached White House officials, who were calling sites in Juneau, the state capital, along with Anchorage and Fairbanks. Organizers of the summit soon came to believe the only city in the massive state with viable options for the summit would be Anchorage. And only Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, on the northern edge of the city, would meet the security requirements for the historic meeting, though the White House had hoped to avoid the optics of hosting the Russian leader and his entourage on a US military installation. That is where the two men will meet Friday, two White House officials said. The struggle underscored the rush now underway to nail down the details of Friday's meeting, the first time the top US and Russian leaders have met in more than four years. The summit is still largely a work in progress as US and Russian officials make haste to prepare for the high-profile encounter. The two countries' top diplomats — Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov — spoke Tuesday to discuss 'certain aspects of preparation,' according to Russia's foreign ministry. Usually, a high-stakes summit with a US adversary would be preceded by extensive negotiations over the agenda and outcomes. But Trump himself has said he is approaching the meeting as a 'feel-out' session, with few advance expectations for how it will proceed. The White House on Tuesday termed it a 'listening session.' 'The president feels like, 'look, I've got to look at this guy across the table. I need to see him face to face. I need to hear him one-on-one. I need to make an assessment by looking at him,'' Rubio said in a morning radio interview Tuesday with Sid Rosenberg, offering one explanation for why Trump's five known phone calls with Putin this year wouldn't suffice in determining the Russian leader's intentions. Landing on Alaska Trump's administration and the Kremlin landed on Alaska as the site for the summit after a lengthy behind-the-scenes back-and-forth, according to people familiar with the matter. There were few places that would work for the sit-down, the people said, particularly given a war crimes warrant issued for Putin's arrest by the International Criminal Court in 2023. With that fact looming, Russia balked at a European destination — even in a city like Vienna or Geneva, where US and Russian leaders have met dating back to the Cold War. While Putin himself raised the United Arab Emirates as an 'entirely suitable' location, many inside the White House hoped to avoid another lengthy trek to the Middle East after Trump's visit in May. In the end, sources said, it came down to Hungary — whose Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is close to both Trump and Putin — and the United States as possible hosts, according to two US officials. American officials were pleased and somewhat surprised when the Russian president agreed to a meeting on US soil — on land that once was part of the Russian empire, no less. 'I thought it was very respectful that the president of Russia is coming to our country as opposed to us going to his country or even a third-party place,' Trump said this week, as his team was rushing to finalize details of the summit. Others were not so taken. 'The only better place for Putin than Alaska would be if the summit were being held in Moscow,' said Trump's former national security adviser John Bolton, who fell out with Trump during his first term. 'So, the initial setup, I think, is a great victory for Putin.' Previous Putin meetings The last time an American president met with Putin — President Joe Biden's 2021 summit in Geneva — the date and venue were announced three weeks ahead of time. But the planning between Russian and American officials started months before that. Biden, on a week-long swing through Europe, spent the days leading up to the sit-down in intensive preparation with top advisers, blocking out time in the mornings to parse potential directions the conversation could take and anticipate some of Putin's moves. He consulted other leaders, including the German chancellor, for pointers on how to approach the notoriously wily Russian leader. By the time the summit arrived, aides had planned the day down to the most minute detail, including what order the leaders would arrive, how long each session would last and what type of flower would sit on the table (it was white roses). American officials even ensured there were bottles of orange Gatorade — labeled 'POTUS' — inside a refrigerator at the 18th-century villa where the meeting took place. During Trump's first term, he and Putin sat one-on-one in Helsinki, Finland, during a summit in 2018 that ended with a remarkable moment when Trump sided with Putin over US intelligence agencies on the question of Russian election interference. Trump also met Putin alone in 2017, during their first encounter at the G20 summit in Hamburg. Mystery over meeting's origins While American and Russian officials have been in extensive conversations to prepare for the sit-down since it was agreed to last week, the encounter that prompted the event remains something of a mystery. Trump's foreign envoy Steve Witkoff visited Moscow last Wednesday for a meeting with Putin that resulted in the decision to meet, though what exactly Putin said in the meeting is still largely unknown. European officials spent much of the last week trying to ascertain the parameters of a peace deal that Putin offered up, but some said they were frustrated by the lack of clarity offered by Witkoff, a real estate developer and longtime friend of Trump's. Trump plans to hear from European leaders and Ukraine in a virtual meeting on Wednesday, arranged by the Germans so the president can get their perspective ahead of the Friday meeting. And he has promised to get on the phone with them, along with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, immediately after the summit concludes. But Zelensky isn't expected to be in Alaska for the summit, so any potential trilateral meeting is off the table for now. Instead, Trump will spend at least part of the summit meeting with Putin one-on-one, the White House said Tuesday, allowing time for the two men to carry out a discussion unheard by anyone else aside from their translators. 'That's part of the plan,' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said when asked whether the two presidents would meet as a pair. 'As for the other mechanics and logistics, I will let our team speak to that when they're ironed out.' It's not atypical for leaders to meet alone with their counterparts, but Trump and Putin's relationship has been the subject of intense scrutiny. And during Trump's first term, even senior officials said they sometimes were left in the dark about what was discussed when aides were left out. In Trump's previous two meetings with Putin, both encounters included translators, but not high-ranking aides. After the Germany meeting, Trump reportedly asked his translator for his notes. For his part, Putin has spent the days ahead of Friday's meeting placing phone calls to his remaining global allies — including some who have staged their own high-profile summits with Trump. That included North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, the Kremlin said Tuesday, who met three times with Trump during his first term, but still hasn't abandoned his nuclear weapons. This article has been updated with additional information
The Hill
8 hours ago
- The Hill
White House puts a low bar for Trump-Putin summit
Trump and other administration officials have indicated Friday's summit in Alaska is not meant to be one that will bring an end to the fighting in Ukraine, using terms like 'listening session' and 'feel-out meeting' to describe the planned discussion about the war in Ukraine. The president and his team have also largely avoided predicting any deliverables that might come out of the meeting and noted that it will likely take a follow-up summit involving both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for any concrete progress to be made on a ceasefire. 'There's a very good chance that we're going to have a second meeting that will be more productive than the first,' Trump said Wednesday. 'Because the first is I'm going to find out where we are and what we're doing.' The White House has steered clear of making any firm commitments about what will come out of Friday's gathering in Anchorage, and details have been scarce as officials work to rapidly pull the event together on one week's notice. The president himself has offered mixed signals about what will happen. Trump is expected to meet one-on-one with Putin, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, and the event will take place at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson. But other logistics were still being sorted out as the summit approached. 'This is a listening exercise for this president,' Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday. 'Look, only one party that's involved in this war is going to be present. And so this is for the president to go and to get, again, a more firm and better understanding of how we can hopefully bring this war to an end.' Trump is a wild card in Friday's meeting. He has avoided setting expectations for the event, telling reporters earlier this week that the conversation with Putin 'will be good, but it might be bad.' Trump on Wednesday threatened 'severe consequences' if Russia did not stop the fighting after this week's summit, then minutes later acknowledged that he is unlikely to be able to get Putin to stop targeting Ukrainian civilians. And he said he hoped to arrange a second meeting quickly involving Putin and Zelensky, or that perhaps a second meeting would not happen at all. 'If the first one goes OK, we'll have a quick second one. I would like to do it almost immediately,' Trump said. 'I think the second meeting – if the second meeting takes place. Now there may be no second meeting, because if I feel it's not appropriate to have it because I didn't get the answers that we have to have, then we're not going to have a second meeting.' Some critics have bemoaned that Trump is giving Putin a win simply by holding the meeting on U.S. soil without Zelensky or leadership from Ukraine present. And European allies have approached Friday's meeting with caution, expressing appreciation for Trump's efforts while bracing for the possibility that he may go off script. Trump has in recent days suggested Ukraine may have to give up land to Russia as part of a peace agreement, something Ukrainian leaders have said is a non-starter.
