Latest news with #TheBlackSwan
Yahoo
01-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Restaurants remove ‘king of fish' from menus as prices soar
Chefs are being forced to take the so-called king of fish off their menus, as the soaring price of seafood makes it virtually impossible to turn a profit. Treasured for its succulent flesh and superior flavour, turbot has long been considered among the finest fishes on restaurant menus. Yet it is becoming a rare option for diners following steep increases in the cost of fish and seafood. Tommy Banks, chef patron of Michelin-starred restaurants The Black Swan and Roots, both in Yorkshire, said: 'It's the king of the sea, a beautiful fish. Pre-pandemic, I paid £18 per kilo. Now it can be as much as £65. 'You can't afford to put it on the menu. And if you do… the amount you'd have to charge for it. There's just no value whatsoever. There really isn't cheap or cheaper fish any more. But turbot in particular is just outrageous, and you can't afford to use it.' Mr Banks recently hosted a tasting night at his restaurant Roots where one of the dishes included turbot. However, he said: 'I was giving a 60g sliver, literally a sliver [to diners]. We were like 'Well, we need to make turbot the smallest [dish] because it's so expensive'. It was costing £9 for 60g of fillet.' Adrian Nunn, director of The Upper Scale, which sells fish to consumers and restaurants in London, said many restaurants had stopped ordering turbot altogether, and were using more affordable alternatives – like Dover sole. He said: 'I don't think I've got one restaurant using turbot. They used to and they've stopped, they can't afford to.' Seafood prices have soared across in recent years, with produce such as langoustines also becoming unsustainable to serve in restaurants. Mr Banks said: 'Some of these really luxury ingredients – like turbot, langoustine, lobster, caviar and truffle – you'll only really find in Mayfair now.' However, Mr Nunn added: 'It's not just the prime fish, It's all fish, whether it's frozen or whether it's sardines, mackerel, whether it's turbot, Dover soles, it's all gone up.' Traditional fish suppers have been hit too. According to the Office for National Statistics, the price of a kilogram of white fish fillets has risen by more than 28pc in the three years to January 2025 to hit £20.59. Inflation in fish and seafood has been blamed on steep rises in the cost of labour, shipping and energy – keeping fish chilled or frozen is particularly energy intensive – and the reduction of fishing quotas by international governments. Laky Zervudachi at fish wholesaler Direct Seafoods, added: 'This year we have seen increasing inflationary pressure on virtually all species of seafood, whether it be simple staples like cod and haddock, to the more exclusive species like scallops and lobsters. 'As always, there are many factors that combine to create these increases, not least are a number of precautionary measures that have been taken by international bodies to help preserve fishing stocks around the world.' Adding to pressure is increased demand for fish from Spanish and French buyers, which has driven up the price for British firms, Mr Nunn said. He said: 'We buy in North of England, because there's not so many Spanish and French buyers up there. They'll just outbid us. We'd love to buy turbot at £10 per kilo, but they'll pay £20, £25, £30 so that's it.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Black Swan' hedge fund Universa reaps 100% return amid tariff chaos, investor says
By Carolina Mandl NEW YORK (Reuters) -"Black Swan" hedge fund Universa Investments posted a 100% return on capital in a turbulent April for markets as U.S. President Donald Trump's administration unveiled new tariff-based trade policies, an investor who allocates money to the fund told Reuters. A so-called tail-risk hedge fund with $20 billion in assets under management, Universa specializes in risk mitigation against "black swan" events - unpredictable and high-impact drivers of market volatility. Funds of its kind use cheap credit default swaps, stock options and other derivatives to profit from severe market dislocations, like an insurance policy. Universa's founder and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel declined to comment on the fund's performance in April. He told Reuters he believes financial markets will perform in a Goldilocks zone for a while, with the economy not growing too fast or too slow, before further turbulence. "I expect a euphoric high before it is over, but when that happens... it's going to be the worst crash I think that we will have seen in our lifetime," he said, adding U.S. stock markets could fall 80%. He said he saw April's market turbulence as a "temporary blip." Universa - which counts "The Black Swan" author Nassim Nicholas Taleb as its distinguished scientific adviser - tends to perform well when unexpected events happen, posting a roughly 4,000% gain in March 2020 as stocks worldwide sank as the COVID-19 pandemic broke out. Spitznagel said the tariffs may have a recessionary impact on the economy at a time that the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates at historically high levels. "The Fed is way behind (the curve)," he told Reuters. "Despite a slowing economy, (Chair Jerome) Powell's holding the line." Last week the Fed held rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, citing a cloudy economic outlook amid tariff threats, as risks of both higher inflation and unemployment had risen. The Fed hiked rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame a surge in inflation, a process that Spitznagel sees as the beginning of a pop in the economic bubble after years of monetary easing that drove investors to riskier assets. "This crash is going to come eventually," he said.
Chicago Tribune
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Chicago Tribune
Kelly McKinney: The power blackout in Spain and Portugal wasn't a fluke. It was the future.
At 12:33 p.m. local time on a crystal blue Monday, the system that provides the power essential to the daily lives of 50 million-plus people collapsed. The lights went out from Lisbon to Barcelona; trains stopped, air traffic controllers went offline and hospital workers scrambled to keep patients alive. Two highly modern, eminently civilized nations were plunged into chaos. While understandable, the immediate obsessive search for the cause — whether cyberattack, software error or rare atmospheric phenomenon — missed the point. In tightly coupled, highly complex systems like the European energy grid, the next catastrophe is not caused. It is triggered. Over the past 2 1½ decades in the disaster business in New York City, I've watched weather systems, electrical grids, transit systems and terrorist networks overwhelm the best-laid plans. And I've come to understand what physicists and systems theorists have known for years: In complex systems, disaster is not the exception; it's the destination. Back in the 1990s, Danish physicist Per Bak proposed a theory he called self-organized criticality. His insight was that complex systems — whether electrical power systems, cities, economies or even ecosystems — inevitably organize themselves into fragile states. As connections grow and efficiency increases, the margin for error disappears. One small, almost trivial fault can suddenly cascade into a continent-wide collapse. Not because the fault is catastrophic — but because the system itself evolves into the crosshairs of catastrophe. This is what happened in Spain and Portugal. And it will happen again. In his landmark work 'Normal Accidents,' sociologist Charles Perrow explained why. Systems like telecommunications networks or national power grids aren't just complicated — they're 'tightly coupled,' meaning that one failure rapidly affects the next. The result is failure that is not only probable — but normal. Trying to find and eliminate every possible fault is a fool's errand. You can't debug your way out of systemic risk. This concept might seem abstract unless you happen to be on the hook to solve the issues and unmet needs of the millions trapped in the blackout. The elderly patient whose ventilator shut down. The train passenger stuck underground. The nurse working by flashlight. The grocery store that lost everything in the dark. We are used to thinking of disasters as external shocks — terrorist attacks, hurricanes, pandemics. But more and more, the disasters we face are emergent properties of the systems we've built. Lean, efficient, interconnected infrastructures may work beautifully on a good day. But they break spectacularly on a bad one. Statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his influential work 'The Black Swan,' calls the world where low-probability, high-impact events dominate 'Extremistan.' In Extremistan, what seems improbable happens regularly. What seems stable collapses without warning. And what seems isolated is deeply, dangerously connected. I hate to break it to you, but we live in Extremistan now. So what should we be doing about it? First, we must stop debating probabilities. Catastrophic failures are not rare. They are built in. The question is not if another system will collapse — but when and how many others will collapse with it. Second, we must shift from an optimization to a resilience mindset. The critical infrastructure that sustains daily life — transportation, communications, water and wastewater, energy, food, health care — must be rendered able to absorb shocks and keep functioning, not just on paper but in practice. That means slack in the system. Redundancy. Cross-training. Manual overrides. And a professional emergency management class empowered to plan, rehearse and lead. And finally, we must prepare for the moment of truth — that first hour when the system breaks, and the response begins. That hour is not a drill. It is life or death for the vulnerable, the elderly, those with access and functional needs, the isolated. And if we are not ready, it will be too late. The Iberian blackout was not a one-off. It was not a fluke. It was a signal from the future, sent in the language of darkness. Our job is to listen — and act — before the next black swan comes.
Yahoo
22-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
3 North Yorkshire pubs shortlisted for best in the county at national awards
Three pubs across North Yorkshire have been nominated in the National Pub and Bar Awards for 2025. In total, 256 pubs and bars across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are among those shortlisted for a prestigious County Winner title. The annual event, which returns later this summer, highlights an eclectic range of venues across the whole of the UK by naming 94 sites as the best in their respective counties. The awards look at a number of elements that affect the customer journey, including marketing, digital presence, design, service, style of offer and investment. In North Yorkshire alone, The Black Swan in Helmsley, The Black Swan in Ripon and The Plough in Wombleton have been revealed as the pubs battling to be crowned best in the county. The Plough, located in the village of Wombleton, has been praised by customers on Tripadvisor for its 'fabulous' atmosphere. Someone added: 'Very welcoming and beautiful and relaxed bar and restaurant. "We ordered the Sunday roasts. The roast pork was outstanding, and the recommended wine for pairing was perfect with it. "Can't wait to go back! Thank you.' Meanwhile, The Black Swan situated in Ripon has been hailed for being a 'proper' pub by visitors. This person wrote on Tripadvisor: 'Drinks are good and really cheap, dog friendly, which is a must for me and to there is always a good atmosphere. 'Sports fans are really well catered for with big TVS showing football, racing rugby.... I bet they'd even find the tiddlywinks World Cup if you asked nicely. 'Staff are spot on, really friendly, and the recent refit has transformed the place.' Tristan O'Hana, editor of Pub & Bar magazine, which runs the National Pub and Bar Awards, said: 'The aim of the National Pub & Bar Awards is simple. 'We want to showcase how brilliant these businesses are and how valuable pubs and bars are to the fabric of society across the whole of the UK. Have you been to any of these shortlisted pubs? (Image: Tripadvisor) 'It has never been harder in hospitality. Whether it's a countryside pub with rooms or a city centre bar showing live sport, these operations deserve widespread recognition and more customers – hopefully the National Pub & Bar Awards can help with both.' Recommended reading: Some of the best pubs in and around York for 'amazing' food according to readers 'Absolute priceless find' - the York pub crowned best in North Yorkshire What is the 'oldest' pub in York? See inside the former Civil War hospital In a change to previous years, the 94 County Winners will be announced live at the event held at Big Penny Social in London on June 24, as well as Highly Commended venues for each area. The awards night will also crown the Pub Group of the Year, Bar Group of the Year, The Tyrrells Tyrrellbly Good Taste Award and ultimately, the overall National Pub & Bar of the Year. On top of that, the 2025 event will launch the Top 10 Pubs & Bars in the UK list, which has been voted for by hundreds of operators from across the country.
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
These ETFs protect against ‘black swan' stock-market events like we've just seen
Insuring your portfolio against a 'black swan' event in the financial markets isn't as easy as you'd think. Black-swans events are rare — hence the name — but when they happen they are sudden, awful and unpredictable. The U.S. stock market's double-digit percentage loss over the past three trading sessions presumably qualifies. 'This is not in my tolerance level': I inherited a $600K portfolio from my father. Should I move it all into bonds? Bond-market chaos is fueling concerns about a crisis. Here's what you need to know. Here's what it may take for this beaten-down stock market to solidly rebound S&P 500 rebound collapses in biggest U-turn since at least 1978. Investors can't shake tariff jitters. Here's the unsettling reason the world's most important market is getting hammered by Trump's tariffs Most of us think that the same risk-reduction strategies we employ in 'normal' times will also protect us from black swans. We believe it's possible to dial portfolio risk up or down, depending on our tolerance. For example, we think that by pursuing a not-too-risky, not-too-conservative strategy, we can still enjoy the bulk of the market's upside while also being protected from its black swans. Risk analyst and author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his 2007 book 'The Black Swan,' argued that this belief is mistaken, since 'middle-of-the-road risks' are not related in any straightforward way to the risks at the tails (extremes) of the distribution. A man whose feet is in the oven and head in the freezer is not OK, no matter what his average body temperature would lead you to believe. Take the traditional approach to risk management, the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Over the three U.S. trading sessions through Monday, it produced a 6.9% loss (assuming the stock portion was invested in the S&P 500 SPX and the bond portion in long-term Treasurys). In contrast to traditional risk-management approaches, Taleb recommended what he called a 'barbell' strategy: 'Your strategy is to be as hyperconservative and hyperaggressive as you can be, instead of being mildly aggressive or conservative.' One barbell strategy is to allocate the bulk of your portfolio to Treasurys and invest the interest you earn from these U.S. government bonds in S&P 500 call options. To be sure, this strategy will still experience some short-term volatility. But because you're only investing the interest you earn, you won't lose money with this approach so long as you hold the Treasurys until maturity. And, depending on the options you purchase and the behavior of the S&P 500 SPX, you will participate in much of the market's upside. Exchange-traded-fund providers now offer ways for individuals to employ these sophisticated game plans. One that employs a variant of Taleb's strategy is the Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF SWAN, which invests 90% in U.S. Treasurys and 10% in S&P call options. Though this ETF was created in late 2018, the index to which the ETF is benchmarked has been calculated back to December 2005. Over that backtested time it has produced a 6.8% annualized return, versus 8.4% for the S&P 500. In other words, the historical 'premium' for this black-swan insurance has been 1.6 annualized percentage points. Given the fear and anxiety of the past few sessions, you may decide that this is a fair price. Another barbell approach is to invest most of your portfolio in a stock index fund and allocate a small portion to S&P 500 put options. One ETF that pursues a variant of this approach is the Swan Hedged Equity US Large Cap ETF HEGD. This ETF's issuer reports performance back to 1997 for managed accounts that pursued a substantially similar strategy to that of the ETF (which was launched in late 2020). From mid-1997 through the end of 2024 this strategy lagged the S&P 500 by a margin of 7.5% annualized to 9.1%. That implies an insurance premium of 1.6 annualized percentage points, nearly identical to that of Amplify's ETF offering. The bottom line? Black swans are unavoidable. And because they also are unpredictable, insuring against them can't rely on the fantasy we'll be able to anticipate when one is about to occur. Answer honestly: Before April 3, did you have any idea what would ensue over the next three sessions? Protection against black swans depends on insurance policies we have in place through thick and thin. Homeowners don't let home-insurance policies lapse. Nor should you for any black-swan insurance you buy. Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at Also read: As the S&P 500 crashes, this new retiree says advisers are 'head-in-the-sand clueless' How to protect your money during today's economic uncertainty After two big days of selloffs, here's what history suggests will happen next This strategist told investors to raise cash — in November. Now he sees a path to Dow 50,000 and $200 oil These 20 stocks have risen during Trump's trade tirade. Analysts see up to 30% additional upside. The stock market staged an epic rally after Trump's tariff pause. Volatility will continue. I moved my money into international stocks and blue-chip funds because I'm 5 years from retirement. Was this wise? Sign in to access your portfolio
