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Business Insider
18-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb shares 4 life lessons — and reveals what keeps him awake at night
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan" and "Antifragile," has advice for navigating this period of economic instability, geopolitical upset, and technological upheaval: Stick to what you believe in, future-proof yourself against AI, exercise your mind and body, and have a holistic view of success. The scholar, statistician, and former hedge fund manager also shared what keeps him up at night. Here are four life lessons he shared during a wide-ranging interview with Business Insider. 1. Have the discipline to stick to what you said you'd do A cornerstone of success is having the "discipline to stick to what you promise you're going to do, and do it in the best possible way," Taleb said. Universa Investments, a "Black Swan" fund where he serves as a distinguished scientific advisor, specializes in protecting client portfolios against rare and extreme market events. It now has more than $20 billion in assets under management. The fund has spent "two decades doing the same trades, and we haven't drifted," Taleb said. "If you stick to something that you really believe in, you should never stray," he continued. 2. Future-proof yourself against AI Taleb championed the "Lindy Effect," the theory that the longer an idea, technology, or cultural practice has survived, the longer it is likely to continue to survive. "AI is not denting Lindy skills," he said, advising people to work in "robust" professions less likely to be displaced by AI. He pointed to gardening, nursing, cooking, plumbing, and masonry as "essential" skills that AI can't replace for now. The AI revolution marks the "first time in history" that white-collar knowledge professions are "in danger" relative to manual trades, he said. 3. Exercise your mind and body Taleb told BI that he does 10 to 15 hours of exercise a week, and emphasized that working both the mind and body is essential to living a good, long life. "We all underestimate how much exercise we need," Taleb said. "Being sedentary requires a lot more exercise than we think." He praised Wall Street legend Ed Thorp, 92, for remaining "athletic, in shape, mentally sharp." Now that Taleb is no longer running a hedge fund, he relishes having more free time to read widely and dig into anything that intrigues him, he said. 4. Redefine success as more than getting rich "What I consider success is looking at yourself in the mirror and not being ashamed," Taleb told BI. Taleb, who was born in Lebanon, said his concept of success extends beyond having a great career and making money. It also involves behaving ethically, being useful to others, surrounding yourself with grandchildren and other family members, and being loved by your community. What keeps him awake at night When asked what keeps him awake at night, Taleb said he fretted over the "physical and financial health" of friends and family. Taleb said it's troubling when he sees older people "realize they don't have enough for retirement." A key underlying issue is that advanced economies "struggle to keep the momentum going" as they mature, leading to slower growth and "less of a good future" for their citizens. "They don't realize the dangers," Taleb said. "That worries me." The system "worked for a few generations because people were always doing better than their parents," but that's no longer true for many, he said.
Yahoo
16-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb tells BI he agrees with Elon Musk on debt, saying a 'crisis' is looming
"The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb spoke to BI about tariffs, Elon Musk, dollar woes, and crypto. Taleb raised the prospect of a "debt crisis" fueled by America's runaway deficit spending. He rang the alarm on the national debt and was dismissive of bitcoin even as it hit record highs. Elon Musk is right to worry about America's debt problem — and bitcoin is no more valuable than a flower, author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said in a wide-ranging interview with Business Insider. Taleb popularized the term "Black Swan" to refer to rare, extreme, unexpected events that are seen as less surprising in hindsight. He's a distinguished scientific advisor to Universa Investments, a "Black Swan" hedge fund that manages over $20 billion in client assets and specializes in hedging against "tail risks" — rare and extreme market events. Taleb spoke about Donald Trump's tariff fights, Musk's deficit angst, declining trust in the US dollar, and why he remains deeply skeptical of bitcoin even as it rises to new highs. Debt spiral Taleb told BI there's "plenty of risk" but it's "not necessarily linked to things you read in the paper every day." He singled out the US federal debt, which has more than tripled to around $37 trillion within the past 25 years, and is set to rise further with Trump's "big, beautiful bill" forecast to add another $3 trillion at least over the next decade. The US government paid $881 billion of interest on its debt in fiscal 2024 — more than the $865 billion it spent on Medicare or its $850 billion outlay on defense, per the Congressional Budget Office. "We have enormously burdenous debt," Taleb said. "Elon's quite justified to be upset with the two-party system," he added, nodding to the Tesla CEO and ex-DOGE boss who formed an "America Party" after falling out with Trump over his bill. Concerns about America's debt, and other factors, including Trump's tariffs, have fueled a roughly 10% decline in the dollar against a basket of global currencies this year. Taleb said the dollar "ceased to be the reserve currency" when the US said it would freeze assets with ties to the Russian government following the country's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Many people were "uncomfortable" at what they perceived to be an overreach, Taleb said, adding this prompted several central banks to swap dollars for gold, contributing to a broader de-dollarization trend. Taleb added that Trump was "antagonizing" US trade partners with import taxes. He told BI that he has "nothing against tariffs in principle," but the president's use of them to strike deals is "not very coherent and spooks the rest of the world." Deteriorating trust in the dollar and America is "bad because we have to borrow and we don't want a debt crisis," Taleb said, pointing to soaring interest costs that make the debt a "source of fragility." Crypto critique Taleb has been a vocal critic of bitcoin for years, calling it a "cult," a "tumor," and a "magnet for imbeciles." Speaking as it continued to hit record highs of more than $120,000, Taleb told BI that bitcoin was an "electronic tulip" — a reference to the Dutch Tulip Bubble in the 17th century that saw a speculative frenzy lift the price of tulips to eye-watering levels. Taleb again said that bitcoin "cannot be a currency," highlighting its volatility and crypto fans' desire for it to keep rising, when stability is core to being a reliable medium of exchange. He also questioned how the coin could be widely adopted when many governments would be loath to undermine their currencies by supporting it. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
01-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Restaurants remove ‘king of fish' from menus as prices soar
Chefs are being forced to take the so-called king of fish off their menus, as the soaring price of seafood makes it virtually impossible to turn a profit. Treasured for its succulent flesh and superior flavour, turbot has long been considered among the finest fishes on restaurant menus. Yet it is becoming a rare option for diners following steep increases in the cost of fish and seafood. Tommy Banks, chef patron of Michelin-starred restaurants The Black Swan and Roots, both in Yorkshire, said: 'It's the king of the sea, a beautiful fish. Pre-pandemic, I paid £18 per kilo. Now it can be as much as £65. 'You can't afford to put it on the menu. And if you do… the amount you'd have to charge for it. There's just no value whatsoever. There really isn't cheap or cheaper fish any more. But turbot in particular is just outrageous, and you can't afford to use it.' Mr Banks recently hosted a tasting night at his restaurant Roots where one of the dishes included turbot. However, he said: 'I was giving a 60g sliver, literally a sliver [to diners]. We were like 'Well, we need to make turbot the smallest [dish] because it's so expensive'. It was costing £9 for 60g of fillet.' Adrian Nunn, director of The Upper Scale, which sells fish to consumers and restaurants in London, said many restaurants had stopped ordering turbot altogether, and were using more affordable alternatives – like Dover sole. He said: 'I don't think I've got one restaurant using turbot. They used to and they've stopped, they can't afford to.' Seafood prices have soared across in recent years, with produce such as langoustines also becoming unsustainable to serve in restaurants. Mr Banks said: 'Some of these really luxury ingredients – like turbot, langoustine, lobster, caviar and truffle – you'll only really find in Mayfair now.' However, Mr Nunn added: 'It's not just the prime fish, It's all fish, whether it's frozen or whether it's sardines, mackerel, whether it's turbot, Dover soles, it's all gone up.' Traditional fish suppers have been hit too. According to the Office for National Statistics, the price of a kilogram of white fish fillets has risen by more than 28pc in the three years to January 2025 to hit £20.59. Inflation in fish and seafood has been blamed on steep rises in the cost of labour, shipping and energy – keeping fish chilled or frozen is particularly energy intensive – and the reduction of fishing quotas by international governments. Laky Zervudachi at fish wholesaler Direct Seafoods, added: 'This year we have seen increasing inflationary pressure on virtually all species of seafood, whether it be simple staples like cod and haddock, to the more exclusive species like scallops and lobsters. 'As always, there are many factors that combine to create these increases, not least are a number of precautionary measures that have been taken by international bodies to help preserve fishing stocks around the world.' Adding to pressure is increased demand for fish from Spanish and French buyers, which has driven up the price for British firms, Mr Nunn said. He said: 'We buy in North of England, because there's not so many Spanish and French buyers up there. They'll just outbid us. We'd love to buy turbot at £10 per kilo, but they'll pay £20, £25, £30 so that's it.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Black Swan' hedge fund Universa reaps 100% return amid tariff chaos, investor says
By Carolina Mandl NEW YORK (Reuters) -"Black Swan" hedge fund Universa Investments posted a 100% return on capital in a turbulent April for markets as U.S. President Donald Trump's administration unveiled new tariff-based trade policies, an investor who allocates money to the fund told Reuters. A so-called tail-risk hedge fund with $20 billion in assets under management, Universa specializes in risk mitigation against "black swan" events - unpredictable and high-impact drivers of market volatility. Funds of its kind use cheap credit default swaps, stock options and other derivatives to profit from severe market dislocations, like an insurance policy. Universa's founder and Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel declined to comment on the fund's performance in April. He told Reuters he believes financial markets will perform in a Goldilocks zone for a while, with the economy not growing too fast or too slow, before further turbulence. "I expect a euphoric high before it is over, but when that happens... it's going to be the worst crash I think that we will have seen in our lifetime," he said, adding U.S. stock markets could fall 80%. He said he saw April's market turbulence as a "temporary blip." Universa - which counts "The Black Swan" author Nassim Nicholas Taleb as its distinguished scientific adviser - tends to perform well when unexpected events happen, posting a roughly 4,000% gain in March 2020 as stocks worldwide sank as the COVID-19 pandemic broke out. Spitznagel said the tariffs may have a recessionary impact on the economy at a time that the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates at historically high levels. "The Fed is way behind (the curve)," he told Reuters. "Despite a slowing economy, (Chair Jerome) Powell's holding the line." Last week the Fed held rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, citing a cloudy economic outlook amid tariff threats, as risks of both higher inflation and unemployment had risen. The Fed hiked rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame a surge in inflation, a process that Spitznagel sees as the beginning of a pop in the economic bubble after years of monetary easing that drove investors to riskier assets. "This crash is going to come eventually," he said.
Chicago Tribune
12-05-2025
- Politics
- Chicago Tribune
Kelly McKinney: The power blackout in Spain and Portugal wasn't a fluke. It was the future.
At 12:33 p.m. local time on a crystal blue Monday, the system that provides the power essential to the daily lives of 50 million-plus people collapsed. The lights went out from Lisbon to Barcelona; trains stopped, air traffic controllers went offline and hospital workers scrambled to keep patients alive. Two highly modern, eminently civilized nations were plunged into chaos. While understandable, the immediate obsessive search for the cause — whether cyberattack, software error or rare atmospheric phenomenon — missed the point. In tightly coupled, highly complex systems like the European energy grid, the next catastrophe is not caused. It is triggered. Over the past 2 1½ decades in the disaster business in New York City, I've watched weather systems, electrical grids, transit systems and terrorist networks overwhelm the best-laid plans. And I've come to understand what physicists and systems theorists have known for years: In complex systems, disaster is not the exception; it's the destination. Back in the 1990s, Danish physicist Per Bak proposed a theory he called self-organized criticality. His insight was that complex systems — whether electrical power systems, cities, economies or even ecosystems — inevitably organize themselves into fragile states. As connections grow and efficiency increases, the margin for error disappears. One small, almost trivial fault can suddenly cascade into a continent-wide collapse. Not because the fault is catastrophic — but because the system itself evolves into the crosshairs of catastrophe. This is what happened in Spain and Portugal. And it will happen again. In his landmark work 'Normal Accidents,' sociologist Charles Perrow explained why. Systems like telecommunications networks or national power grids aren't just complicated — they're 'tightly coupled,' meaning that one failure rapidly affects the next. The result is failure that is not only probable — but normal. Trying to find and eliminate every possible fault is a fool's errand. You can't debug your way out of systemic risk. This concept might seem abstract unless you happen to be on the hook to solve the issues and unmet needs of the millions trapped in the blackout. The elderly patient whose ventilator shut down. The train passenger stuck underground. The nurse working by flashlight. The grocery store that lost everything in the dark. We are used to thinking of disasters as external shocks — terrorist attacks, hurricanes, pandemics. But more and more, the disasters we face are emergent properties of the systems we've built. Lean, efficient, interconnected infrastructures may work beautifully on a good day. But they break spectacularly on a bad one. Statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his influential work 'The Black Swan,' calls the world where low-probability, high-impact events dominate 'Extremistan.' In Extremistan, what seems improbable happens regularly. What seems stable collapses without warning. And what seems isolated is deeply, dangerously connected. I hate to break it to you, but we live in Extremistan now. So what should we be doing about it? First, we must stop debating probabilities. Catastrophic failures are not rare. They are built in. The question is not if another system will collapse — but when and how many others will collapse with it. Second, we must shift from an optimization to a resilience mindset. The critical infrastructure that sustains daily life — transportation, communications, water and wastewater, energy, food, health care — must be rendered able to absorb shocks and keep functioning, not just on paper but in practice. That means slack in the system. Redundancy. Cross-training. Manual overrides. And a professional emergency management class empowered to plan, rehearse and lead. And finally, we must prepare for the moment of truth — that first hour when the system breaks, and the response begins. That hour is not a drill. It is life or death for the vulnerable, the elderly, those with access and functional needs, the isolated. And if we are not ready, it will be too late. The Iberian blackout was not a one-off. It was not a fluke. It was a signal from the future, sent in the language of darkness. Our job is to listen — and act — before the next black swan comes.
