Under Trump, is the US no longer interested in playing maritime referee?
The conspicuous absence of the annual report for the US fiscal year 2024, still unpublished as of August 10, is a telling indicator of the seemingly shifting strategic priorities under US President Donald Trump's second term. Its notable delay, combined with the absence of confirmed reports of South China Sea freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) since Trump's return to the White House, points to a significant recalibration of US maritime policy.
I believe the lack of the annual FONOP report reflects at least three interconnected developments: the Trump administration's overwhelming focus on pressing geopolitical crises in global flashpoints at the expense of long-term maritime strategy, the disruptive effects of domestic budget cuts to
diplomatic institutions and a strategic reluctance to strain already fragile alliances further.
Together, these factors suggest a deliberate, if unacknowledged, retreat from the US' traditional role as the primary enforcer of the so-called rules-based international maritime order, particularly in the South China Sea. Since taking office for a second term in January this year, Trump has been preoccupied by high-stakes geopolitical challenges, leaving little room for sustained engagement in the South China Sea.
Indeed, Trump's major attention has been dominated by attempts
to mediate a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, manage the consequences of what some have called his 'economic nuclear war' and control the volatile
Israel-Hamas conflict as well as counter Iran. Portrayed as a broker of peace, Trump seems to have enjoyed his new role over the past six months.
Historical records of the US' FONOPs also underscore this strategic shift. During Trump's first term, the US Navy conducted an average of seven FONOPs a year that targeted China, challenging China's 'excessive maritime claims', totalling at least 27 operations from May 2017 to December 2020. By contrast, the first six months of his second term have witnessed zero confirmed reports of FONOPs in the South China Sea.
This inactivity coincides with the delay of the annual report for fiscal year 2024, which now exceeds even the Covid-19 related postponement of the release of the annual report for fiscal year 2019 in July 2020. This leads to an unmistakable assertion that maritime issues have fallen sharply on Trump's list of strategic priorities, at least in the South China Sea.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
South China Morning Post
a minute ago
- South China Morning Post
Chinese military ‘warns off' US destroyer from South China Sea's Scarborough Shoal
A US destroyer has entered disputed waters in the South China Sea , less than two days after an apparent collision involving a Chinese coastguard vessel and a PLA Navy ship while the former was pursuing a Philippine coastguard vessel in the area. The People's Liberation Army's Southern Theatre Command said on Wednesday that the USS Higgins destroyer, type DDG-76, had 'illegally entered China's territorial waters around Huangyan Island without the approval of the Chinese government'. 03:09 Chinese ships collide during clash with Philippine coastguard in contested South China Sea Chinese ships collide during clash with Philippine coastguard in contested South China Sea The PLA Navy 'has tracked, monitored, and warned the vessel to leave', the Southern Theatre Command said in a statement. It also criticised the US military for 'seriously violating China's sovereignty and security, undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea, and violating international law and basic norms of international relations'. The US destroyer entered the disputed waters near Scarborough Shoal, known as Bajo de Masinloc in the Philippines or Huangyan Island in China, where the collision on Monday is said to have occurred. Manila claimed that a Chinese coastguard vessel sustained severe damage to its bow after colliding with a larger PLA ship the Guilin, a Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, while chasing a Philippine coastguard ship.
AllAfrica
an hour ago
- AllAfrica
Taiwan readying 'carrier killer' missile to thwart China invasion
Betting on stealth over speed, Taiwan is forging a long-range 'carrier killer' to push back China's carriers and toughen the First Island Chain—even as layered Chinese defenses and shaky allied politics cloud the gambit. This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Taiwan is developing a long-range subsonic anti-ship cruise missile that defense analysts say could significantly strengthen deterrence against China's growing naval power, citing a defense ministry procurement list. Under the Defense Industry Development Act, the ministry will spend NT$40 million (US$1.3 million) over two years on 80 frequency-agile coaxial magnetrons, radar components for the new missile and existing models. Meanwhile, local media said more than NT$800 million (US$26 million) was allocated in 2021–2022 to adapt Hsiung Feng IIE land-attack technology with enhanced stealth. Taiwan's National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) is believed to have led the weapon's development since 2021. Analysts, citing the US AGM-158B and C as references, estimate the missile will have a range of 600–1,000 kilometers—enough to reach beyond Chinese carrier-based aircraft and cover large parts of the East and South China Seas. The new weapon aims to offset the Hsiung Feng III's 400-kilometer limit and the US-made Harpoon's 200-kilometer reach, both requiring risky penetration of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) layered defenses. The timing highlights urgency, with two PLA Navy (PLAN) carriers exercising in the Western Pacific amid a years-long escalation since Beijing cut ties in 2016. China claims Taiwan as its territory, while the US remains Taipei's leading arms supplier, shaping the self-governing island's procurement and war planning. Jonathan Harman mentions in an October 2024 Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) article that domestic production of missile platforms offers Taiwan mainly quicker deployment and reduced costs for weapons that match the performance of US systems. Harman notes that Taiwan aims to replace specific US missile systems with its indigenous variants, although some still require improvements to serve as a more credible deterrent. In line with that, Taiwan's subsonic Hsiung Feng II is slower, more vulnerable to shipboard defenses and has a short range of only 120 kilometers. Although the Harpoon has a longer range, it remains a subsonic missile. The supersonic Hsiung Feng III may have a better chance of punching through shipboard defenses but lacks sufficient reach for standoff fires against PLAN surface groups. Together, these limits may explain Taipei's shift toward a stealthier, longer-ranged option. Taiwan's emphasis on a stealthy, long-range anti-ship missile may also reflect a change of philosophy in defeating shipboard air defenses. The AGM-158, which Taiwan may take as a design reference for its new missile, has a low radar cross-section and minimal infrared signature to evade modern ship defenses. In contrast, supersonic missiles try to 'outrun' interceptors, but they emit intense heat during flight, increasing detectability and engagement opportunities. The divergence captures two schools of thought about beating increasingly sophisticated naval shields. Underscoring just how formidable China's carrier defenses are, Daniel Rice notes in a July 2024 China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) report that its carrier battle groups employ three concentric zones. These include: An Outer Defense Zone 185–400 kilometers from the carrier, where J-15 fighters and submarines conduct surveillance and precision anti-air/anti-ship strikes, executing 'offense to enhance defense' A Middle Defense Zone, 45–185 kilometers away, where large surface combatants—Type 052D 'sword-carrying guards' with advanced radars and vertical launch systems (VLS), and Type 054A frigates acting as 'bodyguards'—focus on anti-submarine warfare and area air defense An Inner Defense Zone, 100 meters–45 kilometers from the carrier, where shipborne point defenses ring the flattop, which serves as the command-and-control (C2) hub. Taiwan's existing anti-ship missiles leave gaps that a new system aims to close. The Hsiung Feng II, Harpoon and Hsiung Feng III cover short to medium ranges. A longer-ranged, harder-to-detect missile would extend its sea-denial envelope. Further, Craig Koerner mentions in an October 2021 Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) article that Taiwan's asymmetrical defense strategy would leverage its terrain to deploy numerous ground-based anti-ship and anti-air missile units. According to Koerner, these units, concealed by camouflage and decoys, can target invading forces while avoiding detection. Koerner says this 'porcupine strategy' offers a cost-effective defense, reduces vulnerability to China's strikes and surveillance, and sustains deterrence. The regional picture trends in the same direction. Taiwan is not alone in pursuing land-based, anti-ship capabilities; US allies are normalizing distributed, road-mobile launchers to complicate PLA planning. For instance, Japan plans to acquire 1,000 upgraded Type 12 cruise missiles and host the US Navy/Marine Corps Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS), while the Philippines indefinitely hosts the US Typhon and NMESIS systems—moves that toughen the First Island Chain's anti-ship missile wall and create cross-pressures on PLA surface operations. However, this larger US strategy of containing China faces significant caveats. Eric Gomez argues in a November 2023 Cato Institute report that Taiwan's asymmetric strategy is less flexible than traditional capabilities in peacetime or gray-zone scenarios, but remains essential for deterring and surviving a Chinese invasion. Suppose the PLA blockades Taiwan with naval and air forces to cut off shipping without storming the island's beaches in an amphibious invasion; then, Taiwan's shore missiles have no clear target unless it escalates to firing the first shot. While a blockade may seek to force capitulation without fighting, Gomez says that approach often fails to achieve its aims, while pointing out that an invasion carries the highest risk but is the most likely approach to succeed. Masashi Murano points out in a March 2024 article for the US Studies Centre (USSC) that Japan's long-range strike capability faces critical gaps in support assets, munitions stockpiles, joint operational doctrine and persistent intelligence tracking. He adds that legal constraints and escalation risks further limit its ability to credibly deter nuclear-armed adversaries such as China through conventional counterstrike operations. Domestic politics can also reroute strategy. Derek Grossman warns in a July 2025 Foreign Policy article that shifting Philippine politics could upend US defense plans: Vice President Sara Duterte—the 2028 presidential frontrunner after midterm gains—could roll back President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's US alliance expansion, invoking the constitution's call for an 'independent' foreign policy and thus implicitly criticizing the US Typhon deployment in northern Luzon that has sparked Beijing's ire. Grossman notes she might follow her father's precedent by revisiting moves to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and by curbing the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement's (EDCA) now nine-site access, risking US access, training and surge capacity in the Philippines. Strategic bandwidth is another constraint. US involvement in overlapping conflicts—support to Ukraine, naval operations against the Houthis in Yemen, backing Israel versus Iran and responding to North Korea's nuclear saber-rattling—could sap political will and overstretch the defense industrial base, making US intervention against China's designs over Taiwan unfeasible if the timelines collide. Ultimately, Taiwan's deterrence hinges less on one 'carrier killer' than on whether Taipei can outlast a Chinese blockade while allied resolve from the Philippines to Japan—and US bandwidth—holds fast.
The Standard
2 hours ago
- The Standard
Trump weighing lawsuit against Fed's Powell over renovations, White House says
U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speak during a tour of the Federal Reserve Board building, which is currently undergoing renovations, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 24, 2025. (Reuters)
