Turkey could be key partner as Ukraine, Europe seek new security framework: Analysts

Al Arabiya

13-03-2025

Turkey has emerged as a key potential partner in restructuring European security, diplomats and analysts say, as Europe scrambles to bolster its defense and find guarantees for Ukraine under any forthcoming ceasefire deal urged by the United States.
European countries have been unsettled by US President Donald Trump's plan to end the Ukraine war, which has upended Washington's policy, halted Russia's isolation with possibility of rapprochement, piled pressure on Kyiv after disastrous talks with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and endangered transatlantic ties.
Analysts say Europeans' push to maintain Ukraine's military capabilities and agree security guarantees, while boosting its own defense without Washington, has created a rare opportunity for Turkey to deepen ties with Europe despite lingering disputes over the rule of law, maritime issues with Greece and Cyprus, and Ankara's long stalled European Union membership bid.
'European countries that thought they had the luxury of excluding Turkey until today are now seeing that they cannot exclude Turkey anymore' said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM).
Speaking after talks with Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he brought a 'clear proposal for Turkey to take on the greatest possible co-responsibility' for peace in Ukraine and regional stability.
A senior European diplomat said Turkey had 'very important views' on what is needed for peace in Ukraine.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had managed to balance his relationship between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the war, the diplomat said, 'so it makes sense to have him on board.'
NATO member Turkey has the alliance's second largest army. It has begun producing its own jets, tanks, and naval carriers in recent years, and sells armed drones globally, including to Ukraine. Its defense industry exports totaled $7.1 billion in 2024.
In a blizzard of talks and decisions since Trump's return in January, several European nations discussed forming a 'coalition of the willing' to help Ukraine. France has offered to consider extending its nuclear umbrella to allies.
Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have said Europe must include Turkey in the restructure of its security architecture in a 'sustainable and deterrent' way.
A Turkish official, who requested anonymity, said there were no clear plans yet on a new European security architecture or Turkey's possible contributions to it, but certain steps could advance cooperation.
'Instead of including Turkey in projects in an 'a la carte' way, it would be more logical (for Europe) to seek partnerships in a more holistic way. For example, they can start by including Turkey in the European Peace Facility program,' the official told Reuters, referring to an EU initiative supporting Ukraine.
Common interests
A Turkish Defense Ministry official said Ankara and Europe had common interests, from counter-terrorism to migration, and Turkey's full participation in EU defense efforts was critical for Europe to be a global actor, adding Turkey was ready to do what it can to help form the new security framework.
Despite the window of opportunity, analysts say Turkey's stance towards Russia remains a test, as Ankara refused to impose sanctions after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and still shares strong ties in energy, tourism, and trade.
'The fundamental question that will come before Turkey is the issue of ties with Russia because the essence of Europe's security framework starts by viewing Russia as a threat,' Ulgen said, adding Ankara must choose a side and position on Russia to take a greater security role.
Turkey has backed Ukraine militarily and voiced support for its territorial integrity and sovereignty. It hosted peace talks in the first weeks of the war and offered to host future talks, while seeking to revive a deal on Black Sea navigational safety.
Last week, a Turkish Defense Ministry source said Turkey could consider contributing to a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, if a ceasefire is declared.
Turkey's armed forces chief of staff Metin Gurak attended a meeting of European army chiefs in Paris this week, and met counterparts from Britain and France, who have also discussed deploying troops.
Another European diplomat said it was vital for Turkey to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine.
'Erdogan's interests lie with us right now, especially as he no longer has that Russia dynamic in Syria,' the person said, in a reference to Russia's backing of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkey backing opposition forces for years.
'So, in a way, the stars are aligned for them to play a role within the future European guarantees for Ukraine.'