‘Big beautiful bill' to push the ASX deeply in the red, expert warns

News.com.au

19-05-2025

Cautious investors pushed the ASX lower on Monday as investors wait to see the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia's board meeting and monitor the US debt markets.
The benchmark ASX 200 slumped 48.60 points or 0.58 per cent to 8,295.10.
The broader All Ordinaries Index also finished in the red down 55.10 points or 0.64 per cent to 8,524.80.
Nine of the 11 sectors finished in the red, led by energy and material stocks which were down 1.82 and 1.55 per cent respectively.
Among the key falls were the major iron ore miners including BHP which slid 2.44 per cent to $38.75, Rio Tinto which fell 1.31 per cent to $119.46 and Fortescue Metals which slumped 4.88 per cent to $16.17.
It was a mixed day for Australia's big four banks. CBA jumped 1.00 per cent to $171.36 while Westpac dropped 0.76 per cent to $31.37, NAB fell 0.46 per cent to $36.84 and ANZ sank 1.73 per cent to $28.40.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said investors were cautious ahead of the 'very unlikely scenario' the Reserve Bank of Australia does not cut on Tuesday.
'If we don't get a rate cut tomorrow the ASX 200 will be down 100 points and it will be a tricky day,' he said.
'It's fully priced in so there will be carnage in the rates market, carnage in the equities market, the Aussie dollar will probably be supported.'
Mr Sycamore said the other major issue to watch is the US bond rate, which is on the back of US President Donald Trump's latest bill.
Dubbed the 'big, beautiful bill' by Mr Trump, there are substantive tax cuts of $2.5 trillion over 10 years, which could mean $4 trillion less is added to the government's coffers by 2034.
Mr Sycamore warns, what happens tomorrow will largely depend on how the bond market reacts to the White House bill.
'It is going to be all about US yields. We could come into an absolute shocker tomorrow but I think it's all going to depend on where the US yields and whether they can digest it or not,' he said.
'It feels like yields want to pop to me, but it is at a huge level and whether it pops now or in a month's time it's hard to tell.'
Moody's downgraded the US from its all important triple A credit rating, while US Treasury yields were up, with 10 year treasuries adding 7 basis points to 4.51 per cent while 30 year treasuries notched 8 basis points to 4.98 per cent.
Defensive stocks including gold miners were among the major winners with Capricorn Metals was the best performer on the ASX 200, rising 3.4 per cent to $8.71, while Evolution Mining rose 3.2 per cent to $8.12.
In company news, New Hope shares tumbled 7.1 per cent to $3.65 after downgrading its guidance for future coal output and sales.
Domino's shares also slumped 2.6 per cent to $24.55, after announcing the chief of its Australian and New Zealand business Kerri Hayman would step down in August, following just nine months in the job.