Harford County's growth hits housing, development barriers

Business Journals

25-04-2025

Harford County has been steadily growing, but barriers to further development remain. Leaders from the county gathered to share their thoughts on what they can do next to continue the momentum.
Story Highlights Harford County is experiencing population growth and economic stability amid regional decline.
The county faces a housing supply shortage despite high demand for homes.
Harford's health care and education sectors are expanding to meet growing population needs.
While Baltimore City and other parts of the metropolitan region have faced population loss, falling incomes and faltering educational performance, Harford County has quietly become a haven of stability.
Professionals on the ground — whether in retail or residential real estate, health care or higher education — are not surprised. And they're not so sure it's been all that quiet, either.
'This is the county where people want to raise their families," said Dan McGhee, a Bel Air-based realtor with The Victory Team at Homeowners Real Estate. "It's the Mecca for children's sports and other services. For every house that hits the market, there are 30 potential buyers."
McGhee spoke at the Baltimore Business Journal's Highlight on Harford event Thursday morning at the Bel Air Armory, focusing on what made the county into a "Mecca." He was joined on a panel by moderator and BBJ Senior Reporter Melody Simmons, Tom Fidler of MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services, Maryland Del. Andre Johnson Jr. (D-Harford County), Diane Ryan of Harford Community College and Elizabeth Wise of the University of Maryland Upper Chesapeake Health.
Across their respective sectors, the panelists see Harford County as a success story. The county's population has grown more than 20% since 2000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Its workforce participation rate is the second-highest in the region, behind only Howard County. Its retail spending per capita is robust, and the median household income of roughly $111,000 is well above the country's rate of $81,000.
But with tariffs, a pared-back state budget and federal job cuts that could hit the county's largest employer, Aberdeen Proving Ground, continuing that growth will take extra effort.
"We have to figure out what the future looks like," Johnson told the crowd Thursday.
For Wise, president and CEO at UM Upper Chesapeake Health, the county's growing but aging population will create a need for more health care professionals. The health system's $260 million expansion in Bel Air and Aberdeen has already added capacity, and a primary care hub on the way will employ more than 15 physicians. That, Wise said, means the county can care for more residents while growing its tax base with well-paying jobs.
'For every doctor or provider we bring, we hire three additional people," she said. 'We will continue to bring providers here based on the health care needs of the community, which attracts those higher wage earners.'
As quality jobs filter in, Harford Community College also has plans to train the workers who will fill them. The college's Workforce Training Center in Belcamp offers programs in welding, pipeline construction and manufacturing. Vice President for Academic Affairs Diane Ryan said the college will also begin offering a unit on logistics in 2027 as the regional warehouse and distribution industries flourish.
Ryan noted that community colleges play a major role for those switching jobs or seeking to enter new fields, something many federal workers may need to do soon.
"Community colleges are very resilient," she said.
With the county's population continuing to rise, McGhee and Fidler, executive vice president and principal at MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services, said there's at least one major barrier to more growth: supply.
"The big question is: Where is the next opportunity for land development?" Fidler asked.
The answer, he said, is that the opportunities are few and far between, at least for major retail developments.
On the housing side of the equation, Harford County in March had just 1.6 months of supply, according to BrightMLS, and a median sales price of $380,000. During pre-pandemic years, healthy housing markets had roughly six months of supply on hand. More development will be needed to fill the "huge demand" McGhee sees in his everyday work.
Fidler and McGhee both see hope in projects that blend retail and housing, like the more than 200 apartments planned for the struggling Harford Mall, which tackle both the retail puzzle and the housing crunch. Other projects like the 30-unit Standard on Bond in Bel Air, which also includes retail and office space, help a county that has historically been slow to add density.
'It's the perfect place to raise a family," McGhee maintains, despite some of the barriers to development. "We've got urban places, we've got farmland, retail and great restaurants, great schools."
With the right mix of policies moving forward, Fidler said, that will continue to be the case.
'As long as this county and our administration plot a path for reasonable, smart growth, we'll be OK for the near future," he said.