India expands nuclear arsenal, widens gap with Pakistan: SIPRI
According to the SIPRI report, India's new 'canisterised' missiles, which allow warheads to be pre-mounted and transported more safely, could potentially carry nuclear warheads even during "peacetime". These next-generation systems may also be able to deliver multiple warheads using a single missile in the near future.
"India is believed to have once again slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2024 and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery systems. India's new 'canisterized' missiles, which can be transported with mated warheads, may be capable of carrying nuclear warheads during peacetime, and possibly even multiple warheads on each missile, once they become operational," the SIPRI report said.
Among the newest of India's next-generation delivery platforms are the Agni Prime (Agni-P) missile and the Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV)-capable Agni-5 system. According to India's Ministry of Defence, Agni-P is a new-generation, advanced variant of the Agni series of missiles. It is a canisterised missile with a range of between 1,000 and 2,000 kilometres. The latest test of the Agni-P was conducted last year.
India also successfully tested the MIRV-capable Agni-5 last year. This missile is capable of striking targets at ranges exceeding 5,000 kilometres. Following the test, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had lauded the efforts of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) scientists involved in the mission. In a post on X, he wrote: "Proud of our DRDO scientists for Mission Divyastra, the first flight test of the indigenously developed Agni-5 missile with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology."
Pakistan, meanwhile, also continued the development of new nuclear delivery platforms and accumulated more fissile material in 2024, suggesting an intent to further expand its nuclear arsenal in the coming decade, SIPRI observed.
Referring to a brief India-Pakistan military clash in early 2025, SIPRI raised serious concerns about the risks of escalation during conventional conflicts between nuclear-armed neighbours.
Associate Senior Researcher with SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Associate Director for the Nuclear Information Project at FAS, Matt Korda, warned: "The combination of strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and third-party disinformation risked turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear crisis."
He added, "This should act as a stark warning for states seeking to increase their reliance on nuclear weapons."
Depending on its force structure, China could potentially match the number of ICBMs possessed by Russia or the United States by the end of the decade. However, even if China reaches the projected 1,500 warheads by 2035, it would still possess only about one-third the number of warheads currently held by Russia or the US.
SIPRI Director Dan Smith voiced concerns about the weakening of nuclear arms control and the prospects of a new nuclear arms race. "China is increasing its nuclear force steadily," Smith said, adding that the country could reach 1,000 warheads within the next seven to eight years.
As of January 2025, SIPRI estimated the total global nuclear warhead inventory at 12,241, of which about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use. Around 3,912 warheads were deployed with operational missiles and aircraft, and the rest remained in central storage.
Approximately 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept on high operational alert on ballistic missiles, most of them belonging to Russia or the United States. However, SIPRI noted that China may now also be maintaining some warheads on missiles during peacetime.
The report further noted that since the end of the Cold War, Russia and the US had dismantled more warheads than they deployed each year, leading to a slow reduction in global nuclear stockpiles. But this trend may now be reversing, with dismantlement slowing down while deployment of new warheads increases.
SIPRI said that all nine nuclear-armed states--the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel--continued to invest heavily in modernising their nuclear forces in 2024. This includes not only upgrading existing systems but also introducing newer technologies and weapons.
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