The Epstein scandal won't break Trump. It might bring down the Democrats
It has to tell voters something new that confirms their worst instincts about a politician. It has to have high salience: so top of mind that it is impossible to ignore. It has to have a personal, emotional resonance. And it has to break away the most loyal of a politician's voters.
Let us apply the tests to another scandal on the other side of the pond: Partygate in the UK. Boris Johnson was widely seen as chaotic and unserious, but not cruel. Then Partygate happened. Revelations of Downing Street parties while the country was locked down during the Covid pandemic confirmed voters' worst suspicions: that the Tories simply did not care. Test one achieved.
Test two: it was completely inescapable, with blanket coverage for months. Members of Parliament broke ranks and turned on the prime minister. With people enjoying freedom from lockdown, and with the worst of inflation yet to bite, it dominated the agenda.
Test three: it was personal. People couldn't visit dying loved ones; in No 10 they were cracking open the wine. Test four: it turned lifelong conservatives, those who had stuck with the Tories through thick and thin, against the party.
Compare that to the Epstein situation. Does it tell us something new about Trump? No: we have known for decades that he was once associated with Epstein. If 'grab 'em by the p----' did not kill Trump in 2016, this is not going to. It is not high salience. It does not touch everyday voters' lives. And the key voters that underpin Trump's support are still firmly in his camp.
The issue fails all four tests.
There is a deeper danger for Democrats. Focusing on Epstein doesn't only fail to wound Trump, it also risks self-harm. With Bill Clinton's links to Epstein well-documented, it invites scrutiny of Democrats' own skeletons. Any serious campaign on the issue would provoke a 'whataboutism' war the Left will not win.
More importantly, though, it is a distraction from the issues that do cut through.
Democrats won the 2018 midterms by pounding healthcare and exposing Republican threats to protections for pre-existing conditions. They made a dry policy issue salient, emotional, and personal. In 2026, the Democrats face a similar opportunity. The Republicans' Big Beautiful Bill includes Medicaid cuts. If Democrats want to win, they need to make that the battleground.
Time, money, and attention are finite. Every minute Democrats spend talking about Epstein is a minute they're not talking about Medicaid, inflation, or abortion. Every minute of ad time on Epstein is a minute not talking about healthcare. And it is a minute they lose with voters who just want someone to talk about their lives, not re-litigate a sex trafficking scandal whose political potency peaked in 2020.
The Epstein scandal won't take down Trump. If Democrats aren't careful, it might just take down their own midterms campaign instead.
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