New NOAA Hurricane Season Outlook Issued: More Active Than Average Season Expected
Confidence is growing that a more active than average Atlantic hurricane season is about to begin in just over a week. NOAA is now forecasting a 6-in-10 chance of an above-average hurricane season.
By The Numbers: NOAA expects 13 to 19 storms to form in 2025, six to 10 of which will become hurricanes and three to five of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, according to the outlook released Thursday.
These ranges are on the high side of the 30-year average for both hurricanes and storms. The range for the number of hurricanes is slightly shy of 2024's total of 11.
NOAA's outlook is consistent, but on the low side of other outlooks issued recently by The Weather Company and by Colorado State University's tropical forecast team.
This outlook was delivered from Gretna, Louisiana, to acknowledge the 20-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina coming up in August.
Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service, also acknowledged that there have been tremendous improvements in forecasts since Katrina. The five-day track forecast is now as accurate as the three-day outlook when Katrina was in the Gulf in 2005.
Since Katrina, improvements in technology and forecasting have led to a cost avoidance of at least $60 billion, according to a study out of the University of Miami, and cited by Graham.
NOAA intends to improve rapid intensification forecasts by 5-7% this season using one of its key hurricane models. This is important to gain an estimate of damage for landfalling hurricanes. Every Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the continental US was a tropical storm or less three days prior, according to Graham.
(MORE: For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
Graham noted there are still challenges ahead of us. There remains a strong focus on the number of hurricanes rather than the impacts from them. He noted that the fatalities from rip currents have outnumbered the deaths from storm surge in recent years. Hurricanes Helene and Milton last year highlighted that impacts can vary well away from the cone of uncertainty and well inland after the storm is no longer a hurricane.
To combat these challenges, NOAA will produce a rip current forecast for the entire Atlantic and Gulf coasts this season. They're also going to include wind alerts on their forecast cone of uncertainty operationally this season.
A new high-definition satellite will also watch over the Atlantic Basin this hurricane season. NOAA, in partnership with the University of Miami, will also be deploying new aircraft drones and underwater gliders to fill data gaps, advance our knowledge of hurricanes and improve forecast accuracy. NOAA's Hurricane Hunters will also be equipped with a new radar that will collect information on winds and ocean waves from their P3 aircraft.
NOAA will also be upgrading its atmospheric/ocean buoy array with better instruments and better placement to monitor the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Factors Dictating How This Season Will Go: Unlike past seasons, this season has offsetting signals for the amount of activity we'll see. Hedging toward more active, warmer-than-average water temperatures is expected and wind shear is likely to be weaker.
Climate scientists are expecting us to hang onto ENSO-neutral conditions through the peak of hurricane season in September, but La Niña is more likely as we head into the cooler months and the end of hurricane season. La Niña conditions typically allow more storms to sustain themselves, while its counterpart, El Niño, increases wind shear over the Caribbean and knocks down the activity there.
Prepare every season: Regardless of what seasonal outlooks say, you should be prepared for every hurricane season.
Even quieter hurricane seasons can include one destructive hurricane landfall, or for that matter, an inland remnant with flooding rain and high winds. For those affected, that would not be a "quiet" season.
If you're along the East or Gulf coasts, the time to develop your hurricane safety plan is now, not when a storm is just days away. Information about hurricane preparedness can be found here.
MORE FROM WEATHER.COM:
- The Hurricane Wind Scale: What It Means, And What It Doesn't
- Pacific Hurricane Season Has Already Begun
- Tropical Refresh: Terms You Should Know This Season
Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
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