Are PPF, NSC and other small savings schemes headed for historic low interest rates? Govt to decide next week

Time of India

19 hours ago

RBI has cut repo rate by 1%
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The interest rates for PPF, NSC and other small savings schemes are set to be reviewed on June 30, 2025. The new rates will take effect for the July-September quarter of FY 2025-26. So far this year, the interest rates for Post Office savings schemes, including the Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana and the Senior Citizens Savings Scheme, have remained unchanged. But this could change starting July 1, 2025.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut the repo rate thrice since the start of 2025. The central bank first cut the repo rate by 25 basis points in February, then again by 25 basis points in April and by 50 basis points in June. To date, the central bank has cut the repo rate by 1%.The banks have reduced the interest rate on fixed deposits in response to the repo rate cut. Some banks have also discontinued their special FDs, which offered higher interest rates compared to normal bank FDs for a specified period.The 1% cut in repo rates has also brought down bond yields. Investors need to keep in mind that there is a positive correlation between bond yields and the RBI's policy rates. So, whenever market expects the RBI to reduce the repo rate, bond yields tend to drop as well.As per data from Investing.com, the 10-year G-sec bond yield was at 6.779% on January 1, 2025. But by June 24, 2025, it had fallen to 6.247%. This means the bond yield has decreased by 0.532% so far and a further downward adjustment cannot be ruled out.The interest rate on the Post Office Savings Scheme is determined on the basis of the recommendations of the Shyamala Gopinath Committee. According to the recommendations accepted by the Finance Ministry, secondary market yields on Central Government Securities of comparable maturities should serve as benchmarks for the interest rates on various small savings instruments, along with a positive spread of 25 basis points.This means that the interest rate of a 5-year time deposit should be based on the yield of 5-year G-secs prevailing in the secondary market plus 25 basis points.For PPF, the average yield of 10-year G-sec between March 24, 2025, and June 24, 2025, is 6.325%, according to investing.com. Adding 25 bps on this, will bring the PPF interest rate to 6.575% as per the formula recommended by the committee. Currently, PPF offers 7.10% to the investors.Going by the set methodology, a repo rate cut and a fall in bond yield indicate that interest rate on small savings scheme may also be cut keeping in view of the prevailing interest rate in the market. However, this does not always reflect in the final decision taken by the government.ET Wealth Online spoke to experts to determine whether interest rates on PPF, NSC, and other small savings are likely to be cut. Here's what they have to say:Given its focus on fostering economic growth through a more accommodative monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the repo rate by 0.5% on June 6th, bringing the total reduction to 1% in 2025. As a result, interest rates for small savings scheme are likely to be lowered. So, a reduction in interest rates for small savings schemes is anticipated. Since the RBI is prioritising growth through lower borrowing costs, a corresponding rate cut for small savings schemes is expected in the next update. The final decision will depend on the government's quarterly review and prevailing economic conditions.With the Reserve Bank of India cutting the repo rate by a cumulative 100 basis points in 2025, attention is now on the upcoming quarterly revision of small savings scheme (SSS) interest rates. SSS rates, while administratively set, are typically aligned with prevailing interest rate trends and yields on government securities. In recent weeks, several banks have already begun reducing their fixed deposit rates, signalling broader rate transmission across the financial system. Given the sharp monetary easing and the government's emphasis on fiscal prudence, it is likely that SSS rates for instruments such as the Public Provident Fund (PPF), Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana (SSY), and National Savings Certificate (NSC) could be cut by 25-50 basis points.These interest rates on small svaings schemes usually move with market trends, but the decision is not automatic as while deciding rates, the government also takes note of savers' needs.This year, the RBI has cut the repo rate by 1%, pushing overall interest rates lower. Normally, this would mean small savings rates could drop too, to stay in line with bank FDs and bonds. But there's a catch: these schemes are a lifeline for retirees, pensioners, and middle-class households. A big cut could hurt their income, especially when inflation is low and bank FD rates are already falling. The government also keeps political and social factors in mind, after all, millions depend on these schemes. So, while a small cut (say, 0.1-0.3%) is possible, a sharp reduction seems unlikely. The government might even hold rates steady to support savers, now that elections are over and inflation isn't a worry. A minor trim could happen, but don't expect a major drop. The government will likely balance market trends with savers' interests.Investors planning to invest in various small savings schemes should do so on or before June 30, 2025. This is because any rate cut will take effect from July 1, 2025.If you invest in time deposits, recurring deposits, Senior Citizens Savings Scheme, Monthly Income Account, National Savings Certificate and Kisan Vikas Patra, on or before June 30, 2025, your investment will be locked at current high interest rate and will not be impacted by subsequent rate cut effective from July 1. This is because once the investment is made, then interest rates are locked till maturity date.However, investment in PPF and SSY will be impacted, as interest on account balances keep changing with time and are calculated on a monthly basis.Shinghal says, "Investors may consider locking into current Small Savings Scheme rates before the revision. Additionally, as interest rates trend lower, long-duration debt funds and target maturity bonds become more attractive for investors seeking to preserve real returns in a softening rate environment."