Expect Record-Breaking Global Heat in Next Five Years, Study Says
The World Meteorological Organization published its predictions for the next five years, and report there is a roughly 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest humans have seen since recordkeeping began in 1850.
"We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems, and our planet," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
In addition, the WMO predicts a 70% chance that the average warming will be higher than 1.5°C over the next five years. This is significant because it's the long-term limit set by the Paris Agreement, indicating that climate change is getting dangerously close to exceeding the Agreement's goals. However, the UN notes that individual months or years can fluctuate due to things like El Niño/La Niña and other weather adjustments. The first calendar year period with temps exceeding the 1.5°C threshold was 2024.
Arctic warming is also predicted to continue
Despite the surprising growth of ice in the Arctic due to uncharacteristic snowfall in early 2025, that famously frigid part of the planet is also expected to warm even more than the rest of the globe due to a phenomenon called Arctic amplification. This is caused by bright, reflective sea ice melting, allowing the sun to better warm the darker water underneath. This has a snowball effect where the Arctic gets warmer faster as it loses more and more ice.
While the global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C in 2024 and will likely do so again over the next five years, the temperatures in the Arctic are even warmer in comparison.
WMO predicts that the Arctic will warm up by "three and a half times the global average" for the next five winters. The prediction continues by saying that further reduction of sea ice is probable, while weather conditions in northern regions like Alaska, northern Europe, and northern Siberia will likely be wetter than average due to warming.
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