Betting Markets Preview Possible Next Escalation In Musk-Trump Feud

Newsweek

14 hours ago

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Betting markets are already predicting what the next developments could be in the new feud between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
Newsweek reached out to the White House and Musk through Tesla for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Musk became one of Trump's most ardent supporters on the campaign trail in the 2024 presidential race, donating nearly $300 million to Republicans last year. However, the relationship between the two has appeared to sour over Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," a piece of legislation that would extend tax cuts and include funding for other priorities, such as immigration. Musk raised concerns about its effect on the national debt.
On Thursday, Musk escalated the feud, writing in a post to X that Republicans would not have won in 2024 without him while also claiming the administration has not released the Epstein files because Trump is mentioned in them.
What to Know
No one knows exactly what will happen next, but some are turning to online betting markets like Polymarket to make their guesses about whether the feud will further escalate or whether the two could soon make up.
On Friday, Musk has been a bit quieter on social media, not making any more comments about Trump. Trump Chief of Staff Susie Wiles told NBC News there are "no plans" for the two to meet on Friday.
Here's an overview of what betting markets say about the next potential developments.
Elon Musk and President Donald Trump speak in Philadelphia on on March 22, 2025.
Elon Musk and President Donald Trump speak in Philadelphia on on March 22, 2025.Will Donald Trump and Elon Musk Meet?
Polymarket traders predict it is probable Trump and Musk will meet by the end of the year—giving that likelihood a 57 percent chance—but are doubtful that a meeting will come in the coming weeks. Traders are giving the meeting a 14 percent chance of happening by June 30 and a 31 percent chance of happening by July 31.
Rival betting odds website Kalshi, on the other hand, gave a 56 percent chance of Trump and Musk calling before July.
Will Elon Musk Suspend Trump From X?
Polymarket odds of Trump being suspended from X by next Friday remain low at only 1.7 percent, a drop from Thursday evening when traders gave it a roughly 4 percent chance of happening.
Betting market site William Hill gives a slightly higher likelihood that Trump could be banned from X during his second term at about 6/4, roughly 40 percent.
It's also unlikely that Musk would unfollow Trump on the social media platform, according to Polymarket, where the odds of that happening were only 19 percent. Kalshi gives the likelihood of an unfollow about 33 percent.
Will Elon Musk Create a New Political Party?
Musk proposed in a post to X on Thursday the creation of a new political party, writing, "Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle?"
But Polymarket currently gives that a low chance of happening—a 7 percent chance by the end of June and a 22 percent chance by the end of the year.
Is A Trump-Musk Reconciliation in the Cards?
Polymarket traders are somewhat skeptical about the possibility the two could reconcile by July, placing the chances of that happening at only 33 percent as of early Friday afternoon.
According to Kalshi, the odds of Musk rejoining the Trump administration are low at about 16 percent.
What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump, on Thursday: "Elon and I had a great relationship. I don't know if we will anymore. I was surprised. You were here. Everybody in this room practically was here as we had a wonderful send-off. He said wonderful things about me. You couldn't have nicer-said the best things. He's worn the hat. Trump was right about everything, and I am right about the 'Great Big Beautiful Bill.'"
Elon Musk, on X: "Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate."
Conservative pundit Laura Loomer wrote on X on Thursday: "I know lawmakers who are asking if they should side with President Trump or Elon. I've been on the hill all day and it's all anyone is talking about. The most powerful man in the world vs the richest man in the world."
What Happens Next
The full impact of the Trump-Musk feud will be felt over the coming weeks. A poll from YouGov, conducted among 3,812 adults on June 6 found that 71 percent of Republicans side with Trump, while only six percent side with Musk, amid the feud.