Can Kristersson convince Swedish voters to give him a second term?

Local Sweden

30-07-2025

It's been a tough couple of years for leaders of western democracies: incumbents in France, Germany, the UK and the US have all recently taken a whipping at the polls. As things stand, Sweden's Ulf Kristersson is in line for a similar beating when the country goes to the polls in September next year.
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Kristersson came to power in 2022 amid rising anti-immigration sentiment, concern over gang violence and an expansionist Russia. Inflation was at its highest level for decades and growth was sluggish.
Three years later and gang violence continues, the economy remains shaky and the world is no more stable, so it's perhaps not surprising that polls show an expanding lead for the four opposition parties, averaging around 9 points, up from 7 points a year ago.
Yet Kristersson will be able to point to some key areas where his government could argue it has succeeded:
Gang crime
Getting a grip on gangland violence was at the heart of the government's agenda, and for good reason: murders involving firearms have been roughly three times higher in Sweden than the European average. The government has reacted by shovelling more money to the police, introducing stop-and-search zones, by making secret surveillance of criminals easier and by proposing tougher sentencing.
Many of these measures are still to take effect: a proposal to double sentences for gang-related crimes won't be in place until after the election. So far it's hard to discern a clear impact of government policy on gang crime rates: the number of shootings so far in 2025 is lower both than in the same period last year and in 2021 (the year before the government took power), but the number of deaths is actually higher.
Still, there are signs that secret surveillance has been effective and, thanks partly to structural changes in the police force, 70 percent of gangland murders now result in charges, compared to about 30 percent previously.
All this is good news for Kristersson: according to pollster Novus his Moderate Party is most trusted on law and order issues, closely followed by the Sweden Democrats. Nonetheless, the government could be vulnerable to any upswing in gangland violence in the run-up to the election.
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Immigration
Immigration, judged on the government's own terms, has also ostensibly been a success story. In 2024 Sweden received fewer than 7,000 asylum seekers (excluding Ukrainians covered by the EU's Temporary Protection Directive). At just 0.6 asylum seekers per 1,000 inhabitants, this was a lower figure than most major western European countries. Asylum applications were down again in the first half of this year, thanks partly to a new law that prevents failed asylum seekers from making new applications.
Government reforms to labour immigration have been more of a mixed bag, with government claims to want to promote high-skilled labour migration sometimes being undermined by poorly-designed rules. Frustratingly for many labour immigrants, voters are less exercised by the plight of skilled workers than they are about the perceived need to stop asylum seekers coming to Sweden.
All this looks likely to benefit the Sweden Democrats: overall, voters rate Jimmie Åkesson's party most highly on the issue, with 31 percent telling Novus they have the best migration policies, followed by the Social Democrats on 19 percent, with the Moderates languishing on 11 percent. Kristersson would no doubt like to shave a few points off the Sweden Democrats' lead here — if the Sweden Democrats leapfrog the Moderates and become the largest right-wing party would severely dent the Moderates' self-image.
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The economy
The economy is a slightly cheerier story for the Moderates, with the party thought best by 27 percent. But they'll be frustrated that the Social Democrats pip them at the post, scoring 30 percent. The Social Democrats are also ahead on unemployment, which has remained persistently high, but the Moderates have a big lead when voters are asked who has the best policies for business.
Moderate finance minister Elisabeth Svantesson will be hoping for some good news before the election: inflation might be down from its post-pandemic highs, but it's still above the Riksbank's 2 percent target. Growth, at 1 percent on an annual basis, is lower than many comparable European countries. The latest trade deal with the US, cementing tariffs at a relatively high 15 percent, might prove unhelpful to Sweden's export-dependent economy. The Moderates will hope a series of cuts to income tax and taxes on savings accounts — and the threat of tax rises from Magdalena Andersson — will get right-leaning voters to turn out for them.
Defence
One issue that the government will be pressing hard is defence: the government has overseen a massive increase in defence spending and took Sweden into Nato. Defence minister Pål Jonsson is one of the government's most effective performers and Swedes broadly back the government's strong pro-Ukraine stance. But while the Moderates have a handsome lead among voters on defence issues, the Social Democrats are unlikely to propose a radically different line, perhaps making it hard for Kristersson to press home the advantage.
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Subjects to avoid: climate and healthcare
A few crucial questions could prove particularly troublesome for the government if they become a focus of the election campaign. The Social Democrats have a commanding lead on healthcare questions, which voters consistently rate as their most important issue. On climate issues the Liberals' minister Romina Pourmouktari has seemingly failed to convince voters that her party has the answers, with just 3 percent saying they have the best policies, compared to the Greens who convinced 28 percent.
With thirteen months left until the election, much can change in the polls. Ulf Kristersson and his party will be hoping voters will be ready to give them a hearing.