Putin Ally Shares Map Of 'Buffer Zone' Covering All Of Ukraine

Newsweek

27-05-2025

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Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has warned that Russia would end up occupying almost all of Ukraine if it continued to receive Western weapons, posting a map to illustrate his claim.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that at the current rate of Moscow's advances in its full-scale invasion, it would take roughly a century to capture the territory Vladimir Putin's ally had proposed.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.
Former Russian President, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev is pictured on March 19, 2025, in Moscow, Russia.
Former Russian President, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev is pictured on March 19, 2025, in Moscow, Russia.
Getty Images
Why It Matters
Now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, Medvedev had served as the country's head of state between 2008 and 2012 and posted fiery messages on social media threatening the West for its support of Ukraine.
He and other Russian officials have repeatedly called for the establishment of buffer zones in northern Ukraine to place Russian cities out of the range of Ukraine's Western-provided long-range strike system.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Medvedev's latest statement is part of a Kremlin strategy to justify Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the long-term occupation of Ukrainian territory.
What To Know
In a post on Telegram, Medvedev referred to Moscow's disparaging term for the government in Kyiv by writing if "military aid to the Banderite regime continues, the buffer zone could look like this."
Derived from the name of Ukrainian nationalist Stepan Bandera, the term is pejoratively used by the Kremlin against the government in Kyiv, to falsely paint it as having Nazi sympathies and as part of Moscow's rhetoric over its war aims to "denazify" the country it invaded.
The text was next to an image which showed the whole of Ukraine under Moscow's occupation apart from a relatively small area of the Volyn and Lviv oblasts along Poland's border.
Medvedev and Russian officials have called for Kyiv to concede occupied and unoccupied territory in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Moscow claims to have annexed but does not fully control.
If military aid to the Banderite regime continues, the buffer zone could look like this: pic.twitter.com/0ueLOTeJaH — Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) May 25, 2025
The ISW cast doubt on the likelihood of it ever being able to capture this territory.
However, the Washington, D.C. think tank said that given Russian forces have advanced an average of 5.5 square miles a day since in 2025, it would take nearly four years to capture the rest of the regions it has declared annexed.
It would also take around 91 years to seize the entirety of the 226,819 square miles contained in Medvedev's proposed "buffer zone," it added.
This time frame assumes Russia can maintain its current rate of advance and does not take into account geographic and defensive barriers. Russian forces have not seized a major urban area since the capture of Bakhmut in May, 2023.
Meanwhile, the estimated 1,500 daily Russian casualties which current and former Western officials have told The Washington Post Moscow is facing, meant that Medvedev's proposal would result in 50 million casualties—over a third of the current Russian population, the ISW added.
What People Are Saying
Deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev on Telegram: "If military aid to the Banderite regime continues, the buffer zone could look like this."
Institute for the Study of War: "Russian forces would need roughly a century to seize Medvedev's proposed 'buffer zone' at their current rate of advance at the cost of nearly 50 million casualties at current loss rates."
What Happens Next
Putin said last week that a decision has been made to establish a security buffer zone along the Russia-Ukraine border.
But the ISW noted how Russian forces have not shown they have not been able to conduct the rapid, multidirectional offensive operations needed to swiftly seize territory, suggesting that Medvedev's post was an idle threat.
However, Kremlin rhetoric is likely to remain belligerent as the West wrangles over how to continue its military assistance to Kyiv.