Man who predicted Covid fears next pandemic already here as warning issued
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Renowned science writer David Quammen fears the next pandemic may already be on the horizon, years after accurately predicting the COVID-19 outbreak. Quammen, who forecast the likelihood of a coronavirus emerging from a Chinese wet market, now warns that bird flu poses the most significant threat of sparking a global pandemic.
His concerns come following the discovery of the H5N1 strain in a Yorkshire sheep in the UK and rising US infections, which have left health officials and experts uneasy. Quammen told MailOnline: "I have high concerns about bird flu. If you're going to make a prediction about what would be the next big one now, a scientist would probably say, well, bird flu has the best chance of being our next pandemic virus.
"But there's always a lot of randomness built into this because these viruses have high mutation rates and mutation is basically a random process," he added. In the US, the virus has ravaged over 1,000 dairy farms, killed 168 million poultry birds, and resulted in more than 70 confirmed human cases, including the first known fatality linked to the virus.
Quammen expressed concerns about the potential mutation of bird flu to become more contagious among humans. "Just the way the Covid virus went from being a rare virus to being a virus in humans and in wildlife all over the planet, that could happen starting tomorrow with bird flu," he said.
The H5N1 strain hit headlines in 2022 after spreading to the US and it's been discovered in a variety of creatures like cats, raccoons, and even dolphins. Human cases have cropped up due to close contact with infected animals and, thankfully, there's no sign yet of people passing it between each other, reports the Mirror.
Although the CDC reassures us that the risks remain low, some boffins are sounding alarms about possible shifts and mix-ups in the virus's genetic makeup that could eventually facilitate human contagion.
Responding to these concerns, the Global Virus Network is urging nations to up their game on monitoring and biosecurity to avoid a repeat of the early chaos of Covid. Quammen added: "It might take four or five mutations of just the right combination to do that, and each of those mutations is a highly improbable event. And the combination of the right four or five is therefore an even more improbable event."
The rapidly mutating bird flu has experts on edge, with one saying: "Bird flu is replicating itself by the billions in each individual bird that it infects - probably every day. My sense is this virus is replicating itself around the world continually right now, in millions of wild birds, in probably millions of chickens and in quite a few cows and other mammals."
When it comes to the risk of a pandemic, they added: "All of those replications, each individual viral replication in each animal, is a spin of the roulette wheel. I'm not saying it's a certainty that bird flu will be our next pandemic; I'm just saying that it's a very very distinct possibility."
Since March 2024, the US's human cases of bird flu stand at 70 confirmations, while England records over 30 farm outbreaks. Regarding food safety, after traces were found in milk, an expert admits: "absolutely" concerned.
Industrial farming is also under scrutiny for its role in viral breeding grounds, with Quammen pointing out: "These massive industrial agriculture systems are petri dishes for the evolution of viruses,".
Quammen also highlighted wider human behaviours - including climate change, overpopulation, overcrowding and unsanitary living conditions - as significant factors increasing the risk of future pandemics.
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