Latest news with #DavidQuammen
Dublin Live
30-04-2025
- Health
- Dublin Live
Man who predicted Covid fears next pandemic already here as warning issued
Our community members are treated to special offers, promotions and adverts from us and our partners. You can check out at any time. More info Renowned science writer David Quammen fears the next pandemic may already be on the horizon, years after accurately predicting the COVID-19 outbreak. Quammen, who forecast the likelihood of a coronavirus emerging from a Chinese wet market, now warns that bird flu poses the most significant threat of sparking a global pandemic. His concerns come following the discovery of the H5N1 strain in a Yorkshire sheep in the UK and rising US infections, which have left health officials and experts uneasy. Quammen told MailOnline: "I have high concerns about bird flu. If you're going to make a prediction about what would be the next big one now, a scientist would probably say, well, bird flu has the best chance of being our next pandemic virus. "But there's always a lot of randomness built into this because these viruses have high mutation rates and mutation is basically a random process," he added. In the US, the virus has ravaged over 1,000 dairy farms, killed 168 million poultry birds, and resulted in more than 70 confirmed human cases, including the first known fatality linked to the virus. Quammen expressed concerns about the potential mutation of bird flu to become more contagious among humans. "Just the way the Covid virus went from being a rare virus to being a virus in humans and in wildlife all over the planet, that could happen starting tomorrow with bird flu," he said. The H5N1 strain hit headlines in 2022 after spreading to the US and it's been discovered in a variety of creatures like cats, raccoons, and even dolphins. Human cases have cropped up due to close contact with infected animals and, thankfully, there's no sign yet of people passing it between each other, reports the Mirror. Although the CDC reassures us that the risks remain low, some boffins are sounding alarms about possible shifts and mix-ups in the virus's genetic makeup that could eventually facilitate human contagion. Responding to these concerns, the Global Virus Network is urging nations to up their game on monitoring and biosecurity to avoid a repeat of the early chaos of Covid. Quammen added: "It might take four or five mutations of just the right combination to do that, and each of those mutations is a highly improbable event. And the combination of the right four or five is therefore an even more improbable event." The rapidly mutating bird flu has experts on edge, with one saying: "Bird flu is replicating itself by the billions in each individual bird that it infects - probably every day. My sense is this virus is replicating itself around the world continually right now, in millions of wild birds, in probably millions of chickens and in quite a few cows and other mammals." When it comes to the risk of a pandemic, they added: "All of those replications, each individual viral replication in each animal, is a spin of the roulette wheel. I'm not saying it's a certainty that bird flu will be our next pandemic; I'm just saying that it's a very very distinct possibility." Since March 2024, the US's human cases of bird flu stand at 70 confirmations, while England records over 30 farm outbreaks. Regarding food safety, after traces were found in milk, an expert admits: "absolutely" concerned. Industrial farming is also under scrutiny for its role in viral breeding grounds, with Quammen pointing out: "These massive industrial agriculture systems are petri dishes for the evolution of viruses,". Quammen also highlighted wider human behaviours - including climate change, overpopulation, overcrowding and unsanitary living conditions - as significant factors increasing the risk of future pandemics. Join our Dublin Live breaking news service on WhatsApp. Click this link to receive your daily dose of Dublin Live content. We also treat our community members to special offers, promotions, and adverts from us and our partners. If you don't like our community, you can check out any time you like. If you're curious, you can read our Privacy Notice. For all the latest news from Dublin and surrounding areas visit our homepage.
Daily Record
30-04-2025
- Health
- Daily Record
Man who foresaw Covid-19 fears next global pandemic is already underway
The man who eerily predicted the Covid-19 pandemic years before it wreaked havoc worldwide has voiced his fears that the next global health crisis could already be underway. David Quammen, who previously pinpointed a wet market - potentially in China - as the likely source of a future coronavirus outbreak, now believes bird flu poses the most significant threat for sparking another worldwide pandemic. The science writer's warning follows the recent detection of the H5N1 strain of flu in a sheep on a Yorkshire farm, confirmed by the Government this week. This case, coupled with rising infections stateside , has raised alarm among health officials and experts. Speaking to MailOnline, Quammen explained: "I have high concerns about bird flu. If you're going to make a prediction about what would be the next big one now, a scientist would probably say, well, bird flu has the best chance of being our next pandemic virus. "But there's always a lot of randomness built into this because these viruses have high mutation rates and mutation is basically a random process." H5N1 has spread rapidly across US farms, impacting over 1,000 dairy herds, decimating 168 million poultry birds, and leading to more than 70 confirmed human cases - including the first known death associated with the virus. Quammen has issued a stark warning about the potential for bird flu to mutate and spread among humans, drawing parallels with the Covid pandemic, reports the Mirror . "Just the way the Covid virus went from being a rare virus to being a virus in humans and in wildlife all over the planet, that could happen starting tomorrow with bird flu." The H5N1 strain of bird flu, first detected in the US in 2022, has been found in various animals including cats, raccoons, skunks, wild dogs, bears, and dolphins. To date, human cases have been associated with exposure to infected animals , and there's no evidence yet of the virus passing from person to person. Despite the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintaining that the risk of bird flu to humans is low, experts are raising concerns that mutations or re-assortments could heighten the chances of human transmission. The Global Virus Network (GVN) is urging governments worldwide to step up surveillance and enforce stricter biosecurity measures to prevent a repeat of the initial COVID-19 turmoil. Quammen pointed out the improbability of such an event but didn't rule it out. He said: "It might take four or five mutations of just the right combination to do that, and each of those mutations is a highly improbable event. "And the combination of the right four or five is therefore an even more improbable event." Amidst concerns about the rapid mutation of viruses, a stark warning has been issued regarding bird flu's potential. "Bird flu is replicating itself by the billions in each individual bird that it infects - probably every day," said one expert. "My sense is this virus is replicating itself around the world continually right now, in millions of wild birds, in probably millions of chickens and in quite a few cows and other mammals. "All of those replications, each individual viral replication in each animal , is a spin of the roulette wheel. I'm not saying it's a certainty that bird flu will be our next pandemic; I'm just saying that it's a very very distinct possibility." Since March 2024, America's human bird flu cases have reached 70, primarily mild symptoms found in farm workers handling affected poultry or dairy cows. Milk contamination has also raised food safety and public health alarm bells after traces of the virus surfaced in supermarkets. Meanwhile, England has registered over 30 bird flu outbreaks, predominantly in its eastern farms. The estimated global chicken population stands at an eye-watering 34 billion, with many living in tightly packed industrial conditions, which experts claim are hotbeds for viral evolution. "These massive industrial agriculture systems are petri dishes for the evolution of viruses," warned David Quammen. Quammen also highlighted wider human behaviours - such as climate change, overpopulation, overcrowding and unsanitary living conditions - as significant factors increasing the risk of future pandemics.
Irish Daily Mirror
30-04-2025
- Health
- Irish Daily Mirror
Man who predicted Covid-19 says source of next pandemic could be already here
A man who eerily predicted the Covid-19 pandemic years before it wreaked havoc worldwide, causing millions of deaths, is now voicing concerns that the next global health crisis might already be in motion. Science author David Quammen, who had previously cautioned that a Coronavirus-like disease could likely originate from a wet market, possibly in China, now identifies bird flu as the most probable trigger for the impending pandemic. His warning follows the recent detection of the H5N1 strain of flu in a sheep on a farm in the United Kingdom, a case confirmed by the British government. This incident, coupled with escalating infections stateside, has raised alarm among health officials and experts. Speaking to MailOnline, Quammen expressed: "I have high concerns about bird flu. If you're going to make a prediction about what would be the next big one now, a scientist would probably say, well, bird flu has the best chance of being our next pandemic virus." He further noted the unpredictability inherent in these situations due to the high mutation rates of viruses, stating, "But there's always a lot of randomness built into this because these viruses have high mutation rates and mutation is basically a random process," In the US, the H5N1 strain has spread rampantly across farms, impacting over 1,000 dairy herds, decimating 168 million poultry birds, and leading to more than 70 confirmed human cases, including the first known fatality linked to the virus. Quammen sounded the alarm, cautioning that if the H5N1 bird flu virus mutates to become easily transmissible between humans, we might face a dire situation. "Just the way the Covid virus went from being a rare virus to being a virus in humans and in wildlife all over the planet, that could happen starting tomorrow with bird flu," he warned, reports the Mirror. Detected first in the US in 2022, the H5N1 strain has been discovered in various animals like cats, raccoons, skunks, canines, bears, and even dolphins. So far, human cases have been associated with contact with these infected creatures, and person-to-person spread hasn't been observed. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains that the risk of bird flu to the public remains low, but experts are on alert for potential genetic changes that could lead to mutations and reassortments—processes that may facilitate human transmission. The Global Virus Network (GVN) has urged governments around the world to step up their monitoring and biosecurity practices to prevent the chaos experienced at the onset of COVID-19. Quammen added: "It might take four or five mutations of just the right combination to do that, and each of those mutations is a highly improbable event. And the combination of the right four or five is therefore an even more improbable event." The threat of bird flu evolving into a pandemic is becoming more pronounced as the virus mutates rapidly. "Bird flu is replicating itself by the billions in each individual bird that it infects - probably every day," an expert warned. "My sense is this virus is replicating itself around the world continually right now, in millions of wild birds, in probably millions of chickens and in quite a few cows and other mammals." He further explained the gravity of the situation: "All of those replications, each individual viral replication in each animal, is a spin of the roulette wheel. I'm not saying it's a certainty that bird flu will be our next pandemic; I'm just saying that it's a very very distinct possibility." Since March 2024, the US has seen 70 confirmed human cases of bird flu, with symptoms mostly mild and occurring predominantly among farm workers who have been in contact with infected poultry or dairy cows. Alarmingly, traces of the virus have also been detected in milk available in supermarkets, a fact that has raised significant concerns about food safety and public health. Quammen also highlighted wider human behaviours - including climate change, overpopulation, overcrowding and unsanitary living conditions - as significant factors contributing to the risk of future pandemics.
Daily Mirror
29-04-2025
- Health
- Daily Mirror
Man who predicted Covid reveals source of next pandemic - and it's already here
Science writer David Quammen - who correctly predicted Covid-19 - says one particular virus, which is already present in the UK, poses the greatest risk of sparking the next global pandemic A man who predicted Covid-19 years before it swept the globe and killed millions fears the next pandemic could already be unfolding. Science writer David Quammen, who previously warned Coronavirus would likely come from a wet market - possibly in China - says bird flu poses the greatest risk of sparking the next global pandemic. His warning comes after the H5N1 strain of the flu was detected in a sheep on a farm in Yorkshire this week, the Government confirmed. The case, along with growing infections across the pond, has sparked concern amongst health officials and experts. Quammen told MailOnline: 'I have high concerns about bird flu. If you're going to make a prediction about what would be the next big one now, a scientist would probably say, well, bird flu has the best chance of being our next pandemic virus. 'But there's always a lot of randomness built into this because these viruses have high mutation rates and mutation is basically a random process,' he added. In the US, H5N1 has spiralled across farms, affecting more than 1,000 dairy herds, wiping out 168 million poultry birds, and resulting in over 70 confirmed human cases - including the first known death linked to the virus. Quammen warned that if the virus mutates to spread easily between humans, the consequences could be severe. 'Just the way the Covid virus went from being a rare virus to being a virus in humans and in wildlife all over the planet, that could happen starting tomorrow with bird flu,' he said. The H5N1 strain, first detected in the US in 2022, has also been found in a range of animals including cats, raccoons, skunks, wild dogs, bears and dolphins. Human infections have so far been linked to contact with infected animals, with no evidence yet of person-to-person transmission. While the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says risk of bird flu to people remains low, experts have warned that mutations and reassortments - where two viruses simultaneously infect the same host and exchange genetic material - could increase the risk of human transmission. The Global Virus Network (GVN) has called on governments to bolster surveillance and tighten biosecurity measures to avoid a repeat of the early COVID-19 chaos. Quammen said: 'It might take four or five mutations of just the right combination to do that, and each of those mutations is a highly improbable event. And the combination of the right four or five is therefore an even more improbable event.' But with the virus mutating rapidly, the risk could be growing. 'Bird flu is replicating itself by the billions in each individual bird that it infects - probably every day,' he said. 'My sense is this virus is replicating itself around the world continually right now, in millions of wild birds, in probably millions of chickens and in quite a few cows and other mammals. 'All of those replications, each individual viral replication in each animal, is a spin of the roulette wheel. I'm not saying it's a certainty that bird flu will be our next pandemic; I'm just saying that it's a very very distinct possibility.' Since March 2024, the US has reported 70 confirmed human cases of bird flu, mostly mild and primarily among farm workers exposed to infected poultry or dairy cows. Traces of the virus have also been found in milk sold in supermarkets - a discovery that Quammen said made him 'absolutely' concerned about food safety and public health. In England, there have been more than 30 outbreaks of the virus on farms, with most in the eastern regions. There are an estimated 34 billion chickens worldwide, many of them reared in cramped, industrial conditions. Quammen warned that such settings are ideal for viral evolution. 'These massive industrial agriculture systems are petri dishes for the evolution of viruses,' he said. Quammen also pointed to broader human behaviours - including climate change, overpopulation, overcrowding and unsanitary living conditions - as major contributors to the risk of future pandemics.
Arab Times
01-03-2025
- Health
- Arab Times
Expert who predicted COVID warns of the next big pandemic and when it could strike
LONDON, March 1: Science writer David Quammen, known for predicting the Covid-19 outbreak seven years before it swept the globe, is now raising concerns about the possibility of another pandemic. In 2012, after interviewing virology and epidemiology experts, Quammen published Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, where he warned that the next pandemic would likely stem from a coronavirus spilled over from a wild animal in a wet market, possibly in China. His prediction was eerily accurate when Covid-19 emerged. Now, Quammen is increasingly worried about the "next big one." In an exclusive interview with the UK daily, he warned that it's only a matter of time before another global health threat emerges. His concerns come as a new coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, discovered in bats in China, shows striking similarities to the pandemic virus, SARS-CoV-2. Researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology have expressed concern about the potential for this new strain to spill over to humans. While the new coronavirus is troubling, Quammen's primary concern is bird flu. He believes bird flu, particularly the H5N1 strain, poses the greatest risk of becoming the next pandemic. Quammen explained that the virus has the potential to mutate in ways that allow it to spread easily from person to person, creating an "extremely dangerous" virus. He pointed out that, like Covid-19, the bird flu could spread globally if mutations occur, given the virus's high mutation rates. The H5N1 strain of bird flu was first detected in the U.S. in 2022. While it has infected 70 people and killed one, the virus has mainly spread among birds. In the last 30 days, over 18.5 million birds have been affected, and the virus has also been detected in various mammals. While human-to-human transmission has not yet been observed, the large-scale replication of the virus in birds means that the possibility of a mutation leading to a pandemic is becoming increasingly likely. However, Quammen stressed that the emergence of a pandemic depends on the unpredictable nature of viruses. He compared the situation to a game of roulette, where the odds of certain mutations causing a pandemic might seem low, but the more the virus replicates, the higher the chances become. Quammen emphasized that millions of bird flu replications are happening globally every day, increasing the likelihood of a pandemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has maintained that the risk of bird flu to humans remains low. However, Quammen pointed to other viruses that could also pose a risk, including coronaviruses and Ebola. He expressed particular concern about a new strain of coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, which was found in bats in China. Tests suggest it can infect human cells in a manner similar to SARS-CoV-2, raising concerns about the potential for spillover to humans. Quammen also mentioned the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Uganda, which has claimed multiple lives, and the rise of unknown diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 1,000 people have fallen ill, and more than 60 have died. He noted that while these diseases are serious, they may not pose the same global threat as bird flu or other emerging viruses. Another area of concern for Quammen is mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever, which he referred to as "neglected tropical diseases." These diseases, which primarily affect tropical regions, could spread to other areas due to climate change. While he expressed less concern about diseases like yellow fever, Zika, and West Nile virus, he acknowledged their potential threat. Quammen also raised concerns about food safety and public health. The massive scale of industrial farming, with billions of chickens and other animals at risk of infection, creates ideal conditions for viruses to evolve. He warned that unsanitary conditions in meat production facilities are "petri dishes for the evolution of viruses." The large-scale production of animal protein, coupled with the increasing global population, contributes to viral outbreaks by disrupting wild ecosystems and creating new opportunities for viruses to spill over into humans. In order to reduce the risk of future pandemics, Quammen stressed the need for stricter climate change policies and a shift toward a less meat-intensive diet. He advised people to reconsider their consumption of animal products and to think carefully about population growth. Quammen believes that reducing the human population's impact on the environment and limiting the production of animal protein could help mitigate the risk of future pandemics. Ultimately, Quammen believes that while the emergence of another pandemic is not inevitable, the odds are increasing. He emphasized that human actions—whether through climate change, overconsumption, or unsanitary living conditions—play a critical role in either preventing or facilitating the next global health crisis.
