Man who predicted Covid-19 says source of next pandemic could be already here
A man who eerily predicted the Covid-19 pandemic years before it wreaked havoc worldwide, causing millions of deaths, is now voicing concerns that the next global health crisis might already be in motion.
Science author David Quammen, who had previously cautioned that a Coronavirus-like disease could likely originate from a wet market, possibly in China, now identifies bird flu as the most probable trigger for the impending pandemic. His warning follows the recent detection of the H5N1 strain of flu in a sheep on a farm in the United Kingdom, a case confirmed by the British government.
This incident, coupled with escalating infections stateside, has raised alarm among health officials and experts. Speaking to MailOnline, Quammen expressed: "I have high concerns about bird flu. If you're going to make a prediction about what would be the next big one now, a scientist would probably say, well, bird flu has the best chance of being our next pandemic virus."
He further noted the unpredictability inherent in these situations due to the high mutation rates of viruses, stating, "But there's always a lot of randomness built into this because these viruses have high mutation rates and mutation is basically a random process," In the US, the H5N1 strain has spread rampantly across farms, impacting over 1,000 dairy herds, decimating 168 million poultry birds, and leading to more than 70 confirmed human cases, including the first known fatality linked to the virus.
Quammen sounded the alarm, cautioning that if the H5N1 bird flu virus mutates to become easily transmissible between humans, we might face a dire situation. "Just the way the Covid virus went from being a rare virus to being a virus in humans and in wildlife all over the planet, that could happen starting tomorrow with bird flu," he warned, reports the Mirror.
Detected first in the US in 2022, the H5N1 strain has been discovered in various animals like cats, raccoons, skunks, canines, bears, and even dolphins. So far, human cases have been associated with contact with these infected creatures, and person-to-person spread hasn't been observed.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains that the risk of bird flu to the public remains low, but experts are on alert for potential genetic changes that could lead to mutations and reassortments—processes that may facilitate human transmission.
The Global Virus Network (GVN) has urged governments around the world to step up their monitoring and biosecurity practices to prevent the chaos experienced at the onset of COVID-19. Quammen added: "It might take four or five mutations of just the right combination to do that, and each of those mutations is a highly improbable event. And the combination of the right four or five is therefore an even more improbable event."
The threat of bird flu evolving into a pandemic is becoming more pronounced as the virus mutates rapidly. "Bird flu is replicating itself by the billions in each individual bird that it infects - probably every day," an expert warned.
"My sense is this virus is replicating itself around the world continually right now, in millions of wild birds, in probably millions of chickens and in quite a few cows and other mammals."
He further explained the gravity of the situation: "All of those replications, each individual viral replication in each animal, is a spin of the roulette wheel. I'm not saying it's a certainty that bird flu will be our next pandemic; I'm just saying that it's a very very distinct possibility."
Since March 2024, the US has seen 70 confirmed human cases of bird flu, with symptoms mostly mild and occurring predominantly among farm workers who have been in contact with infected poultry or dairy cows. Alarmingly, traces of the virus have also been detected in milk available in supermarkets, a fact that has raised significant concerns about food safety and public health.
Quammen also highlighted wider human behaviours - including climate change, overpopulation, overcrowding and unsanitary living conditions - as significant factors contributing to the risk of future pandemics.
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