U.S. Fed likely to hold interest rate steady, but are cuts still coming?
The inflation-fighters at the Federal Reserve are expected to keep their key interest rate unchanged Wednesday for the fourth straight time. That's likely to shift attention to how many interest rate cuts they forecast for this year.
It's widely expected that the 19 Fed officials that participate in the central bank's interest-rate decisions will project two rate cuts for this year, as they did in December and March. But some economists expect that one or both of those cuts could be pushed back to 2026.
The Fed will almost certainly keep the short-term rate it controls at about 4.3 per cent, economists say, where it has stood since the central bank last cut rates in December. Since then, it has stayed on the sidelines while it evaluates the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and other policy changes on the economy and prices.
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Inflation has been cooling since January, and many economists say that without the higher import taxes, the Fed would likely be cutting its rate further. According to the Fed's preferred measure, inflation dropped to just 2.1 per cent in April, the lowest since last September. Core inflation — which exclude the volatile food and energy categories — was 2.5 per cent.
Those figures suggest inflation is largely coming under control, for now. Yet the Fed's short-term interest rate remains at an elevated level intended to slow growth and inflation. Some economists argue that with inflation cooling, the Fed could resume its rate reductions.
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Bank of Canada holds key interest rate steady at 2.75%
When the Fed reduces its rate, it often — though not always — leads to lower costs for consumer and business borrowing, including for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. Yet financial markets also influence the level of longer-term rates and can keep them elevated even if the Fed reduces the shorter-term rate it controls.
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But Fed officials have said they want to see whether Trump's tariffs boost inflation and for how long. Economists generally believe a tariff hike should at least lead to a one-time increase in prices, as companies seek to offset the cost of higher duties. Many Fed officials, however, are worried that the tariffs could lead to more sustained inflation.
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'While theory might suggest that (the Fed) should look through a one-time increase in prices, I would be uncomfortable staking the Fed's reputation and credibility on theory,' Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Fed's Kansas City branch and a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate setting committee, said earlier this month.
The Trump White House has sharply ramped up pressure on Powell to reduce borrowing costs, with Trump himself calling the Fed chair a 'numbskull' last week for not cutting. Other officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are also calling for a rate reduction.
Pushing the Fed to cut rates simply to save the government on its interest payments typically raises alarms among economists, because it would threaten the Fed's congressional mandate to focus on stable prices and maximum employment.
One of Trump's complaints is that the Fed isn't cutting rates even as other central banks around the world have reduced their borrowing costs, including in Europe, Canada, and the U.K. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan kept its key short-term rate unchanged at 0.5%, after actually raising it recently.
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But the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England have reduced their rates this year in part because U.S. tariffs are weakening their economies. So far the U.S. economy is mostly solid, with the unemployment rate low.
The Bank of England has cut its rate twice this year but is expected to keep it unchanged at 4.25% when it meets Thursday.
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