Is Keir Starmer just one crisis away from a Labour coup?

Independent

3 hours ago

On the Whitehall grapevine, Wes Streeting is seen as a rare success story for the government: a good communicator who is starting to deliver the change Keir Starmer promised.
The chatter in Streeting's health department predicts his next stop will be 10 Downing Street. However, the health secretary might face an uphill battle to win over the Labour grassroots in the 'one member, one vote' ballot that chooses the party's leader. Even some of his admirers suspect he might be too right-wing, or 'Blairite', for many of them.
Whitehall officials are less flattering about other cabinet ministers. Rachel Reeves 's autumn Budget is described by some as her 'last shot'. In other words, if she can't break out of the doom loop of 'one-off' tax rises to meet her fiscal rules, followed by exactly the same medicine in her next Budget, Starmer might be looking for a new chancellor next year.
The prime minister is not immune to speculation about his future. Even his allies admit he cannot afford a repeat of his bad first year on the domestic front. 'Another crisis like the welfare climbdown and it would surely be curtains,' one Labour MP told me. Angela Rayner told last month's meeting of Labour's national executive committee that 'announcements are not enough: people have to see real improvements in their lives, soon.' Significantly, the deputy prime minister added: 'The next 12 months will decide whether Labour wins a second term.'
She wasn't talking behind Keir Starmer's back; he was in the room.
Few ministers would disagree with her 'one more year' theory. Starmer's problem is that first impressions of a government, prime minister or party leader usually stick, and Labour and his party's dire ratings are getting worse.
Although Rayner didn't say it, the logical consequence of her statement is that if Starmer hasn't turned things round by next summer, the question of whether he should lead the party into the next general election will become a live one. The spark might be poor results in next May's mid-term elections, when Labour could lose out to the SNP in the Scottish Parliament, to Reform UK in the Welsh Parliament, and to the Greens and Jeremy Corbyn's new socialist party in English local authorities.
Indeed, there's already gossip in Labour land about Starmer's future, which is fully in line with Labour's traditions.
The party doesn't kill its leaders like the Conservatives, but makes up for that by debating endlessly in private who would take over if their leader fell under a Number 12 bus in Whitehall. Labour has more in common with the TV series Succession than it would admit.
Despite Streeting's Whitehall fan club, the current strong favourite to succeed Starmer is Rayner. Although she insists she doesn't want the top job, it would be very hard to stick to that if it were likely to land in her lap.
Rayner is performing a delicate balancing act well. She has carved out a position slightly to the left of Starmer, which is where Labour's heart beats. At the same time, she is publicly loyal to the PM; rocking the boat could damage her succession prospects.
In theory, jittery Labour backbenchers, fearing they will lose their seats, could mount a coup against Starmer. In practice, they would need cabinet-level support. How loyal would the cabinet be if the PM came under real pressure? One largely forgotten factor is that only eight of today's 22-strong cabinet nominated Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership contest – in other words, he was their first choice. They were: Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, John Healey, David Lammy, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Steve Reed and Jonathan Reynolds.
That doesn't mean other ministers would dump Starmer in the event of a leadership crisis. When a leader is in real trouble, any politician is bound to consider self-interest. If Rayner still looked a shoo-in, it would suit those who don't want her to succeed Starmer to rally behind him rather than pull the rug. 'Wes [Streeting], Yvette [Cooper] and other big beasts would bolster Keir rather than let Angie [Rayner] take over,' one Labour insider told me. Despite that, it is no longer certain that Starmer will lead his party into the next election.
Starmer will soon reflect on his planned fightback during a much-needed holiday, which, knowing his wretched luck when it comes to taking a break, will probably be interrupted by the need to talk to other world leaders about Ukraine and Gaza.
The first test of whether Starmer can turn the domestic tide will come in what is becoming an increasingly important speech to the Labour conference in Liverpool next month. 'It's going to be a hard slog from now on,' one close ally admitted.