China doesn't want Russia to lose this war, likely won't put pressure on Putin: Brookings
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Times
26 minutes ago
- New York Times
Trump Is Doubling Down on Sanctions. Putin Is Laughing All the Way to Alaska.
Donald Trump wants the war in Ukraine to end. Volodymyr Zelensky wants the war in Ukraine to end. Many other presidents and prime ministers want the war to end. Vladimir Putin is not one of those presidents. The war in Ukraine has become the political, psychological and economic center of Putin's regime. That basic asymmetry would seem to doom any attempt at a negotiated peace — it is, in fact, the main reason no meaningful peace negotiations have occurred in the three and a half years since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Trump thinks he has a solution, though. He says he intends to use his negotiating prowess and keep ratcheting up economic pressure until Putin has no choice but to stop the fighting. Between the bombastic social media posts, the shifting deadlines, the erratic announcements — one day a White House official says Trump will meet with Putin only after Putin meets with Zelensky, another day Trump drops the requirement — it's easy to overlook the fact that Trump's policy toward Russia largely follows the same failed strategy employed by the Biden administration, the first Trump administration and the Obama administration before that. For more than a decade, the United States has responded to Russian aggression by threatening and gradually imposing economic sanctions. That some of Trump's sanctions take the form of tariffs doesn't alter the nature of the policy. The conventional theory behind sanctions is that economic pressure destabilizes regimes, possibly forcing the leader to change course. In one scenario, widespread hardship — unemployment, inflation, shortages — leads to popular discontent, even unrest. In another, a shrinking economy and loss of access to foreign markets anger the elites, who stage a palace coup or at least compel the leader to change direction. The problem with this theory is that it's wrong. When sanctions have an effect, it is usually to immiserate ordinary people. The elites remain wealthy, and the gap between the rich and the poor only grows. Rather than foment resentment against the regime and the elites, this tends to rally society against the country that imposed the sanctions. That enemy, after all, is far away and easily turned into an abstraction, while the elites at home control the media, which frames the conflict. They also control the jobs and the goods, making it much costlier to hate the elites at home than the enemy far away. And beyond a certain level, hardship leads people to withdraw from even thinking about politics, because they have to focus on survival. As for the palace coup scenario, Russia has shown clearly how sanctions come to have the opposite of their intended effect. Superrich Russians living abroad who found their access to Western markets cut off and some of their assets frozen moved to places like Dubai or returned to Moscow. What else were they going to do? That the economic pie is shrinking doesn't mean that the elites suddenly start conspiring to overthrow the leader — a risky proposition unlikely to succeed in the best of cases; it means only that they compete harder for what remains of the pie. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
The Hill
27 minutes ago
- The Hill
Vietnam wants to be the next Asian tiger and it's overhauling its economy to make it happen.
HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Beneath red banners and a gold bust of revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh in Hanoi's central party school, Communist Party chief To Lam declared the arrival of 'a new era of development' late last year. The speech was more than symbolic— it signaled the launch of what could be Vietnam's most ambitious economic overhaul in decades. Vietnam aims to get rich by 2045 and become Asia's next 'tiger economy' — a term used to describe the earlier ascent of countries like South Korea and Taiwan. The challenge ahead is steep: Reconciling growth with overdue reforms, an aging population, climate risks and creaking institutions. There's added pressure from President Donald Trump over Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S., a reflection of its astounding economic trajectory. In 1990, the average Vietnamese could afford about $1,200 worth of goods and services a year, adjusted for local prices. Today, that figure has risen by more than 13 times to $16,385. Vietnam's transformation into a global manufacturing hub with shiny new highways, high-rise skylines and a booming middle class has lifted millions of its people from poverty, similar to China. But its low-cost, export-led boom is slowing, while the proposed reforms — expanding private industries, strengthening social protections, and investing in tech, green energy. It faces a growing obstacle in climate change. 'It's all hands on deck…We can't waste time anymore,' said Mimi Vu of the consultancy Raise Partners. The export boom can't carry Vietnam forever Investment has soared, driven partly by U.S.-China trade tensions, and the U.S. is now Vietnam's biggest export market. Once-quiet suburbs have been replaced with industrial parks where trucks rumble through sprawling logistics hubs that serve global brands. Vietnam ran a $123.5 billion trade surplus with the U.S. trade in 2024, angering Trump, who threatened a 46% U.S. import tax on Vietnamese goods. The two sides appear to have settled on a 20% levy, and twice that for goods suspected of being transshipped, or routed through Vietnam to avoid U.S. trade restrictions. During negotiations with the Trump administration, Vietnam's focus was on its tariffs compared to those of its neighbors and competitors, said Daniel Kritenbrink, a former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam. 'As long as they're in the same zone, in the same ballpark, I think Vietnam can live with that outcome,' he said. But he added questions remain over how much Chinese content in those exports might be too much and how such goods will be taxed. Vietnam was preparing to shift its economic policies even before Trump's tariffs threatened its model of churning out low-cost exports for the world, aware of what economists call the 'middle-income trap,' when economies tend to plateau without major reforms. To move beyond that, South Korea bet on electronics, Taiwan on semiconductors, and Singapore on finance, said Richard McClellan, founder of the consultancy RMAC Advisory. But Vietnam's economy today is more diverse and complex than those countries were at the time and it can't rely on just one winning sector to drive long-term growth and stay competitive as wages rise and cheap labor is no longer its main advantage. It needs to make 'multiple big bets,' McClellan said. Vietnam's game plan is hedging its bets Following China's lead, Vietnam is counting on high-tech sectors like computer chips, artificial intelligence and renewable energy, providing strategic tax breaks and research support in cities like Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Danang. It's also investing heavily in infrastructure, including civilian nuclear plants and a $67 billion North–South high-speed railway, that will cut travel time from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City to eight hours. Vietnam also aspires to become a global financial center. The government plans two special financial centers, in bustling Ho Chi Minh City and in the seaside resort city of Danang, with simplified rules to attract foreign investors, tax breaks, support for financial tech startups, and easier ways to settle business disputes. Underpinning all of this is institutional reform. Ministries are being merged, low-level bureaucracies have been eliminated and Vietnam's 63 provinces will be consolidated into 34 to build regional centers with deeper talent pools. Private business to take the lead Vietnam is counting on private businesses to lead its new economic push — a seismic shift from the past. In May, the Communist Party passed Resolution 68. It calls private businesses the 'most important force' in the economy, pledging to break away from domination by state-owned and foreign companies. So far, large multinationals have powered Vietnam's exports, using imported materials and parts and low cost local labor. Local companies are stuck at the low-end of supply chains, struggling to access loans and markets that favored the 700-odd state-owned giants, from colonial-era beer factories with arched windows to unfashionable state-run shops that few customers bother to enter. 'The private sector remains heavily constrained,' said Nguyen Khac Giang of Singapore's ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute. Again emulating China, Vietnam wants 'national champions' to drive innovation and compete globally, not by picking winners, but by letting markets decide. The policy includes easier loans for companies investing in new technology, priority in government contracts for those meeting innovation goals, and help for firms looking to expand overseas. Even mega-projects like the North-South High-Speed Rail, once reserved for state-run giants, are now open to private bidding. By 2030, Vietnam hopes to elevate at least 20 private firms to a global scale. But Giang warned that there will be pushback from conservatives in the Communist Party and from those who benefit from state-owned firms. A Closing Window from climate change Even as political resistance threatens to stall reforms, climate threats require urgent action. After losing a major investor over flood risks, Bruno Jaspaert knew something had to change. His firm, DEEP C Industrial Zones, houses more than 150 factories across northern Vietnam. So it hired a consultancy to redesign flood resilience plans. Climate risk is becoming its own kind of market regulation, forcing businesses to plan better, build smarter, and adapt faster. 'If the whole world will decide it's a priority…it can go very fast,' said Jaspaert. When Typhoon Yagi hit last year, causing $1.6 billion in damage, knocking 0.15% off Vietnam's GDP and battering factories that produce nearly half the country's economic output, roads in DEEP C industrial parks stayed dry. Climate risks are no longer theoretical: If Vietnam doesn't take strong action to adapt to and reduce climate change, the country could lose 12–14.5% of its GDP each year by 2050, and up to one million people could fall into extreme poverty by 2030, according to the World Bank. Meanwhile, Vietnam is growing old before it gets rich. The country's 'golden population' window — when working-age people outnumber dependents — will close by 2039 and the labor force is projected to peak just three years later. That could shrink productivity and strain social services, especially since families — and women in particular — are the default caregivers, said Teerawichitchainan Bussarawan of the Centre for Family and Population Research at the National University of Singapore. Vietnam is racing to pre-empt the fallout by expanding access to preventive healthcare so older adults remain healthier and more independent. Gradually raising the retirement age and drawing more women into the formal workforce would help offset labor gaps and promote 'healthy aging,' Bussarawan said. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
CNBC
28 minutes ago
- CNBC
China says it 'drove away' U.S. destroyer near the disputed Scarborough Shoal
China said Wednesday it warned and "drove away" a U.S. destroyer that had sailed near the coast of the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea — one of the most valuable shipping lanes globally. The destroyer, USS Higgins, "illegally entered China's territorial waters off Huangyan Island without the approval of the Chinese government," the country's defense ministry said, according to a CNBC translation of the statement in Mandarin. Huangyan Island is the name China uses to refer to the shoal, which has been the subject of a maritime dispute between China and the Philippines. China accused the U.S. military of "seriously" infringing its sovereignty, adding that America's actions "severely undermine peace and stability in the South China Sea, and violate international law and basic norms governing international relations." The USS Higgins is a destroyer with the U.S. Seventh Fleet, based in Yokosuka, Japan, which did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment. The incident comes at a time when Washington and Beijing are locked in a trade spat that has seen the two issue incendiary statements, with China in March warning that it was prepared for "a trade war or any other type of war," with the U.S., before tensions subsided. On Tuesday, a Chinese warship had crashed into one of its own coast guard vessels as it chased a patrol boat belonging to the Philippines. China claims almost all of the South China Sea as its own under its "nine-dash-line," which rejects a 2016 ruling by an international arbitration court in the Netherlands, that found no legal or historical basis for Beijing's claims. There have been several clashes between Chinese and Filipino ships in the South China Sea, with the Philippines accusing Beijing's forces last year of pursuing Philippine vessels and directing lasers at patrolling aircrafts near another contested reef. Clashes which have involved boat collisions, water cannons and injuries to Filipino sailors, according to Filipino officials. In May 2024, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said that should a Filipino citizen be killed in the South China Sea via an incident with the Chinese Coast Guard, it would almost certainly be a "red line" and come "very, very close to what we define as an act of war." He added that "our treaty partners I believe, also hold that same standard," referring to U.S. forces. Washington has a mutual defense treaty with Manila since 1951, which states that an attack on either the Philippines or the U.S. in the Pacific is deemed to be an attack on the other.
