World goods trade rebounds in early 2025 in anticipation of US tariffs
MOSCOW: World goods trade increased sharply in early 2025 in anticipation of US tariffs, but weakening export orders suggest the momentum may not be sustained, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer showed, reported Sputnik/RIA Novosti.
The WTO Goods Trade Barometer is a leading indicator of world trade that provides real-time information on the dynamics of goods trade in line with recent trends. Barometer readings above 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes, while barometer readings below 100 suggest that merchandise trade has fallen below trend or will fall in the near future.
"Global goods trade posted a strong uptick in early 2025 driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated higher tariffs; however, weakening export orders suggest that this momentum may not be sustained.
"The latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer rose to 103.5 — up from 102.8 in March, while the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9, pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year," the organisation said on Thursday.
On April 2, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order that implemented reciprocal tariffs on imports from various countries. The base tariff rate was established at 10 per cent, with higher rates applied to 57 countries based on the US trade deficit with each specific nation. On April 9, Trump declared that a baseline tariff of 10 per cent would be imposed for 90 days on over 75 countries that had not retaliated and had requested negotiations.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Sun
an hour ago
- The Sun
Thailand-US trade talks next week amid tariff threats
BANGKOK: Thailand's finance minister will travel to the United States next week for trade talks, local media reported Friday, as the kingdom seeks to secure a deal with Washington over US President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. Thai exports face a 36 percent levy on key exports to America under the US president's raft of 'Liberation Day' measures if no agreement is reached to head them off before next month's deadline. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira told reporters he has scheduled talks with a US representative and plans to depart next week, according to local media outlet Thai News Agency MCOT. His remarks followed online speculation that the tariffs would be cut to 18 percent after the talks, which he dismissed in a post on X. 'It's just a projection made by economists,' he told reporters at Government House, as quoted by local media. In May, Pichai said the proposal aimed to reduce the trade imbalance and expand US export access to Thailand's market. America's goods trade deficit with Thailand hit $45.6 billion in 2024, up 11.7 percent from the year before, according to US Trade Representative data. The Thai government last month cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 2.3-3.3 percent, from 3.2-4.2 percent, citing uncertainty over 'reciprocal tariffs'. AFP has reached out to Pichai's party representative who was unable to confirm details of the trip. Many Southeast Asian nations were threatened with the highest 'reciprocal' tariff rates: 49 percent on Cambodia's exports, 46 percent on Vietnam's and 44 percent on Myanmar's.
Malay Mail
an hour ago
- Malay Mail
China confirms trade deal framework reached with United States
BEIJING, June 27 — China confirmed on Friday details on the framework of a trade deal with the United States, saying Washington would lift 'restrictive measures' while Beijing would 'review and approve' items under export controls. A top priority for Washington in talks with Beijing had been ensuring the supply of the rare earths essential for products including electric vehicles, hard drives and national defence equipment. China, which dominates global production of the elements, began requiring export licences in early April, a move widely viewed as a response to blistering tariffs imposed by Trump. The two sides agreed after talks in Geneva in May to temporarily lower steep tit-for-tat tariffs on each other's products. China also committed to easing some non-tariff countermeasures but US officials later accused Beijing of violating the pact and slow-walking export licence approvals for rare earths. They eventually agreed on a framework to move forward with their Geneva consensus following talks in London this month. A White House official also told AFP on Thursday that Donald Trump's administration and China had 'agreed to an additional understanding for a framework to implement the Geneva agreement'. That clarification came after the US president told an event that Washington had 'just signed' a deal relating to trade with China, without providing further details. Beijing confirmed on Friday that an agreement had been reached. 'It is hoped that the United States and China will meet each other halfway,' a spokesperson for the commerce ministry said in a statement. It said both sides had 'further confirmed the details of the framework'. Under the deal, China 'will review and approve applications for the export control items that meet the requirements in accordance with the law'. 'The US side will correspondingly cancel a series of restrictive measures against China,' the commerce ministry said. Separately on Thursday, the White House also indicated that Washington could extend a July deadline when steeper tariffs affecting dozens of economies are due to kick in. Trump imposed a sweeping 10 per cent levy on most trading partners this year but also unveiled — then halted — higher rates on dozens of economies while negotiations took place. That pause is set to expire July 9. When asked if there would be another delay, press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters: 'Perhaps it could be extended, but that's a decision for the president to make. 'The deadline is not critical. 'The president can simply provide these countries with a deal if they refuse to make us one by the deadline.' This means Trump can 'pick a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is advantageous for the United States', she added. — AFP
The Star
an hour ago
- The Star
Chinese toymaker takes drastic action to survive Trump's tariffs
BEIJING: Ah Biao, the founder of a toy factory in southern China that makes magnetic puzzles and sensory tubes for American children, is still in business despite brinkmanship by US President Donald Trump. When Trump hiked tariffs on China from 54% to 145% in early April, Ah Biao - a moniker his colleagues and friends call him - rented a factory in northern Vietnam. He packed 90 sets of iron or steel moulds into 60 boxes, some weighing over than 700 kilogrammes (1,540 pounds), which were shipped to the South-East Asian country for production to evade levies. Four weeks later, Trump abruptly lowered those tariffs back down to 30% in a 90-day truce with Beijing. Those same moulds were quickly moved from a Chinese border town where they were awaiting customs clearance and rushed back into production in Shenzhen. Some production lines are operating 24 hours per day in two shifts. Furloughed workers - who kept their jobs after Ah Biao decided not to implement a plan to lay off a third of them - returned with full pay and overtime. Sixty more people were hired. In the meantime, Ah Biao is fervently keeping track of what's left of shipping availability to get his toys into the US as quickly as possible. Ah Biao, founder of Shenzhen Kate Plastic Products Co, is emblematic of millions of exporters across China's vast US$4.7 trillion manufacturing sector. For all the attention on Trump's pledge to bring mass manufacturing back to American shores, one thing has become clear: China's factories are finding ways to remain central to the global supply chain. "I felt that it was useless to just worry, you just have to do what you have to do. We can only act according to circumstances,' said Ah Biao, who declined to use his full name due to sensitivities around discussing geopolitical topics, of the ups and downs of the past few months. "In short, the world is round, and we will always find a way.' That was already evident from the US President's first trade war with China, when exporters responded to tariffs by pouring out into South-East Asia; Chinese businesses own over half of Cambodia's factories now, according to the country's industry ministry. Now in Trump's second, more damaging trade barrage, the exporters are also more determined to survive. The abrupt whiplash of trade negotiations has underscored the nimble resourcefulness of Chinese exporters, and their ability to stay relevant even as scores of countries try to slow the flow of imports from the world's second-largest economy. "The US was willing to lower tariffs because it's very unlikely that Chinese products can be totally replaced in the short term,' said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA. "From the US standpoint, this was essentially a stress test that made it clear that there's no way to break away from China's supply chain in a short period of time.' Ah Biao, known to his US customers as Bill, said the company always valued relationships with American clients, who delivered large, stable orders for years uninterrupted - the US is its biggest market. During the supply chain and geopolitical chaos of the pandemic, the company's clients started asking it to look into diversifying manufacturing from China. He spent a month in Vietnam in 2022 in search of a new production base, but was disheartened by what he saw - upfront rental costs were extremely high, hiring skilled workers was difficult and shipping raw materials and equipment from China was expensive. The challenges there made the company realise it would take more time than expected to plan for the move. In the years since, Ah Biao said the company maintained good relations with his US clients, the biggest of which is Learning Resources Inc, a retailer of educational toys. His factory produces educational toys for the Vernon Hills, Illinois-based company, which sued the Trump administration in April over the tariffs. At its peak, as much as 80% of Learning Resources's products were made in China, Chief Executive Officer Rick Woldenberg told Bloomberg News, but as US relations with China worsened he decided to build up supply chains elsewhere. "After Trump 1.0, we believed that the clock was ticking and our fear was not he said, referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping. "Our fear was American politicians.' Woldenberg, whose products include the popular Farmer's Market color sorting game and the Code and Go Robot Mouse sold online and at stores including Target and Walmart, said he sees no choice but to move manufacturing away from China. He's had tough conversations with long-term suppliers over the last several months. "We've told our factories they need to move and we've told them that it's an urgent matter and we told them we have to move,' he said. "I don't know where is safe. I can tell you that the wind is blowing in such a way that I don't feel secure in my future to have a manufacturer in China - I really don't.' At the start of 2025, about 60% of Learning Resources's products came from China, with the rest sourced from Taiwan, South Korea and elsewhere. That level, Woldenberg said, is "low for our industry, but we now know not low enough.' While some see Trump's attempt to curb imports from China in the context of a superpower rivalry between the world's two biggest economies, manufacturers have yet to receive any direct state support. Officials are concerned about manufacturers' plans to lay off workers or shift overseas, but financial assistance is unlikely as local governments in China are grappling with high debt levels, said multiple Guangdong-based Chinese exporters and one government worker who have direct knowledge of such discussions, and who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to sensitivities around the issue. The Department of Commerce of Guangdong Province didn't reply to a faxed request for comment. The US and China agreed to maintain tariffs at their current, lower levels following discussions in London earlier this month. But Ah Biao no longer holds out hope that things between the US and China will improve in the longer term. "It would be great if the two sides talk and make compromises, but it won't bother me much if it doesn't go well,' said Ah Biao. "We've been through the worst.' That pushed Ah Biao to pull the trigger finally on his Vietnam move, and he isn't the only one. In the first quarter of this year, combined investment from China and Hong Kong into Vietnam reached nearly $2 billion, up 23% from the year before, according to Vietnamese government data. "We are hearing from Chinese companies,' said John Dwyer, founder of Peregrine Management International, a Hanoi-based firm that assists companies looking to relocate to Vietnam. "Their customers want to start production in Vietnam factories. They are looking for ways to de-risk themselves.' Shifting to Vietnam inevitably means that some of Ah Biao's workers must relocate, too. To sweeten the offer for his more senior employees, Ah Biao said that he may consider to raise their compensation by 50% at least, with guaranteed vacation time for them to go back to China to see their families. It's a big, and expensive, gamble for Ah Biao, but at 40, retirement is still too far away to contemplate folding. He thinks he's young enough to make big bets during a time of turmoil to scale up his business, but he has learned a valuable lesson of not putting all of one's eggs into one basket. "I always tell my people that we should act like an 'unkillable cockroach,'' said Ah Biao. "It's deeply embedded in our DNA.' - Bloomberg
