China ousts Japan in outbound market
The number of Thais visiting Japan in June dropped by 4.6% year-on-year, marking the first monthly decline this year, though the cumulative figure for the first half still rose by 10.1% to 680,500.
Chotechuang Soorangura, vice-president of the Thai Travel Agents Association, said outbound traffic to Japan, which has yet to reach the high season, is expected to dip further due to concerns over an earthquake prophecy.
He said Thai holidaymakers have begun booking outbound tour packages for the high season in the final quarter.
This year, Harbin in northeast China has emerged as a popular destination, with Thai AirAsia announcing chartered flights for the winter.
Tour operators were quick to reserve seats and bundle them into tour packages, pricing them at around 38,000-42,000 baht to capture surging demand, as seen last year.
Mr Chotechuang said the popularity of emerging cities and tourism development in China has helped revive the outbound market to the country, which had declined for years before the pandemic, unlike South Korea, which once boomed thanks to the K-Pop wave but now lacks strong offerings to attract Thai tourists.
A large number of tour operators disappointed with the inbound Chinese market are pivoting to offer outbound tour packages to China instead, capitalising on strong demand.
He said China is poised to become the most popular destination in the upcoming high season due to more affordable prices compared with Japan, while tourists who had avoided the mainland for decades are now taking the opportunity to explore new attractions.
Mr Chotechuang said the average price of a tour package to China typically starts from 18,000-20,000 baht.
Another factor accelerating tourist decisions is China's policy to abandon compulsory shopping at designated stores.
Cost management in China is more feasible for tour operators compared with Japan, where living costs are rising, especially for transport.
"Tour operators mostly cap selling prices to Japan at no more than 40,000 baht, which is more challenging amid surging operational costs," he said.
However, the outbound market to Japan is expected to continue growing, particularly among repeat visitors who still enjoy shopping and revisiting familiar places.
With the US announcing a visa fee hike, Mr Chotechuang said this policy might affect specific groups.
He said a greater concern is stricter immigration screening in Europe and Japan to prevent illegal immigration, as foreign tourists have reportedly faced difficulties entering those countries.
This could dampen travel sentiment in the future, similar to how South Korea experienced a sharp drop in visitors due to uncertainty around its immigration process, said Mr Chotechuang.
He said the number of Thais visiting South Korea this year might not reach 300,000, falling short of the 323,000 recorded last year.
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