Scottish independence rears its head again as John Swinney talks up IndyRef2 prospects
John Swinney is hoping the rise of Reform will push more Scots towards supporting the end of the Union.
John Swinney isn't always keen to speak about Scottish independence. Back in January and February this year, the First Minister made a series of set-piece speeches on Government policy in which the indy word wasn't mentioned once.
It led to accusations from Alba that he had "no plan, no action and no intention" when it came to advancing the cause of Scotland breaking away from the UK.
Swinney's caution was perhaps understandable given how badly the General Election went for the SNP last year. It's easy to forget now, but that poll was supposed to deliver a message to the UK Government that Scots wanted a second referendum on independence.
Instead, the Nationalists were left with nine MPs and Labour, briefly, looked in the ascendency north of the Border.
The ground has since shifted. Polls consistently show the SNP is on course to remain the largest party at Holyrood at next year's election meaning Swinney will almost certainly stay on as First Minister as a result.
While the Nationalists probably won't achieve a majority on their own, they could rely on the Scottish Greens to push them over the magic number of 65 MSPs when it comes to any Holyrood votes on independence.
Clearly sensing an opportunity, Swinney was keen to talk up such a scenario yesterday.
He insisted only a referendum, like the one in 2014, could finally settle the issue. But he also claimed a 'democratic majority' for independence - that means the SNP and Greens - in the Scottish Parliament should lead to an IndyRef2 being staged.
Remember, only the UK Government has the power to call a referendum on the constitution. That was the definitive ruling of the Supreme Court in 2022 when Nicola Sturgeon forced the issue.
Speaking to a group of journalists yesterday, Swinney was also asked if he would ramp up his messaging on independence.
He said: 'I recognise I had to earn the right to be heard by the public in Scotland. I think we had lost the right to be heard by the people of Scotland and I had to re-earn that.'
He continued: 'I think people are learning the very, very, very hard way that you can change the government of Westminster, but it doesn't change the outcomes for your lives.'
He was asked directly if there should be a convention on independence – something other pro-independence parties have demanded – but instead suggested that his focus is on 'doing really well politically, engaging with the public and shifting the tectonic plates'.
The First Minister is gambling that Scots who are currently either undecided or against independence will think again if there is a chance Nigel Farage becomes the next prime minister.
But that doesn't answer the question of how any future Scottish Government secures an IndyRef2.
There is next to no chance Keir Starmer would agree to such a prospect. Would Nigel Farage? His previous remarks suggest not.
He told The Times last month: "I'm not that worried about the SNP. Yes, they're going to have a resurgence. Scotland is not going to leave the United Kingdom. It's not going to happen in a month of Sundays."
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