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Benchmarks lose steam in trade fog, Nifty ends below 25,500

Benchmarks lose steam in trade fog, Nifty ends below 25,500

Equity benchmarks closed with moderate losses today as uncertainty around the India-US trade negotiations kept investor sentiment subdued. Caution dominated trading activity, with participants leaning towards a risk-off stance. The Nifty 50 slipped below the 25,500 mark, dragged down by financial services and PSU bank stocks. On the other hand, metal and consumer durables stocks witnessed buying interest.
Focus is now slowly turning to the Q1 earnings season, which is expected to offer fresh insights into corporate performance and the broader economic outlook.
The S&P BSE Sensex declined by 287.60 points or 0.34% to close at 83,409.69, while the Nifty 50 shed 88.40 points or 0.35% to end at 25,453.40.
Larsen & Toubro (down 1.89%), Bajaj Finance (down 1.48%) and HDFC Bank (down 1.30%) were major drags.
The broader market outperformed the frontline indices. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.18% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.20%.
The market breadth was negative. On the BSE, 1,809 shares rose and 2,205 shares fell. A total of 158 shares were unchanged.
The NSE's India VIX, a gauge of the market's expectation of volatility over the near term, shed 0.65% to 12.45.
India-US Trade Deal Update:
Intense trade talks between India and the US entered their sixth day on Tuesday in Washington, with negotiations hitting a critical phase. According to an official, India is pushing for better market access for its labour-intensive products.
The Indian delegation, led by Special Secretary Rajesh Agrawal from the Department of Commerce, is in Washington to negotiate the terms of an interim trade agreement. Originally planned as a two-day discussion starting June 26, the talks have been extended as both sides work toward a resolution.
The timing is crucial, with the deadline for the suspension of reciprocal US tariffs set for July 9. Both countries are aiming to wrap up negotiations before that date.
Numbers to Track:
The yield on India's 10-year benchmark federal paper slipped 0.10% to 6.289 from the previous close of 6.295.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 85.6800 compared with its close of 85.5900 during the previous trading session.
MCX Gold futures for 5 August 2025 settlement rose 0.14% to Rs 97,392.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, was up 0.25% to 96.88.
The United States 10-year bond yield gained 0.75% to 4.283.
In the commodities market, Brent crude for September 2025 settlement rose 78 cents or 1.16% to $67.89 a barrel.
Global Markets:
European market advanced on Wednesday as investors remained focused on the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday, with ECB President Christine Lagarde due to address policymakers today.
Most Asian stocks ended lower as investors evaluated recent comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell stated on Tuesday that the central bank would have already cut interest rates if not for U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
In Singapore, stocks touched a record high on Wednesday morning, supported by local market strength despite broader global uncertainty.
Overnight in the United States, major indices ended the session with mixed results. The S&P 500 dipped 0.11% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.82%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.91%, reflecting some rotation into blue-chip stocks.
Investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, when reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to be reimposed unless a resolution is reached.
Tesla shares dropped 5.3% after President Trump criticized CEO Elon Musk, claiming he has benefited disproportionately from government subsidies. Trump also called for a review of Teslas federal support.
The tension follows Musk's public criticism of a large tax and spending bill, which narrowly passed in the Senate on Tuesday. The bill is expected to add approximately 3.3 trillion dollars to the national debt. It now moves to the House of Representatives for further consideration, with President Trump aiming to sign it into law by the July 4 holiday.
Traders are now focused on Thursday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on a potential rate cut in July.
Stocks in Spotlight:
Hero MotoCorp rose 0.28%. The company reported dispatching 553,963 units of motorcycles and scooters in June 2025, marking a 10.03% increase compared to 503,448 units dispatched in June 2024.
Asian Paints rose 2.15%. The Competition Commission of India (CCI) ordered an investigation into the company for allegedly abusing its dominant position in the decorative paints market. The move came following a complaint by Grasim Industries, which has recently entered the sector under its Birla Opus Paints brand. The complaint claimed that the company was discouraging distributors from selling Birla Opus products by offering incentives such as foreign travel and discounts in exchange for exclusivity.
Dreamfolks Services slumped 10.62% after the company announced the closure of certain programs run for Axis Bank and ICICI Bank, effective 1 July 2025. While the contracts with both banks remain in force, the termination of select programs may have a material impact on the companys operations.
JSW Energy declined 1.71%. The company said that its step-down subsidiary, JSW Renew Energy Thirty Seven has signed battery energy storage purchase agreements (BESPA) with Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam (RVUNL) for 250 MW/500 MWh standalone battery energy storage system.
Keystone Realtors jumped 3.70% after the company announced that it has been selected by 8 housing societies as the developer for the large-scale cluster redevelopment project in Andheri West, Mumbai.
RITES jumped 5.68% after bagging two major orders -- a $3.6 million international deal to supply overhauled locomotives to Africa and a Rs 37.81 crore station redevelopment project in India via RITES-Aryan JV.
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone shed 0.28%. The company said that it has handled 41.3 MMT of cargo volume in June 2025, which is higher by 12% as compared with the volume of 37 MMT handled in June 2024.
Maruti Suzuki India added 1.38%. The companys total sales declined 6.27% to 167,993 units in June 2025 as against 179,228 units sold in June 2024.
V-Mart Retail fell 3.36%. The companys revenue from operations jumped 13% to Rs 885 crore in Q1 FY26 compared with Rs 786 crore in Q1 FY25.
NBCC (India) slipped 2.48%. The company said that it has secured a project management consultancy (PMC) contract worth Rs 354.88 crore from the Forest Development Corporation of Maharashtra (FDCM) for the Gorewada Zoo project.
Paras Defence and Space Technologies jumped 4.25% after its subsidiary, Paras Anti-Drone Technologies has received a Rs 22.21 crore letter of intent (LoI) from Frances Cerbair to supply 30 units of its CHIMERA 200 anti-drone system.
South Indian Bank slipped 1.68%. The private lender said that its gross advances jumped 8.02% to Rs 89,201 crore as of 30 June 2025 as against Rs 82,580 crore as of 30 June 2024.
New Listing:
Shares of HDB Financial Services settled at Rs 840.90 on the BSE, representing a premium of 13.64% compared with the issue price of Rs 740.
The scrip was listed at Rs 835, exhibiting a premium of 12.83% to the issue price. The stock has hit a high of Rs 850.45 and a low of Rs 827.50. On the BSE, 78.45 lakh shares of the company were traded in the counter.
Shares of Sambhv Steel Tubes settled at Rs 97.58 on the BSE, representing a premium of 19% compared with the issue price of Rs 82.
The scrip was listed at Rs 110.10, exhibiting a premium of 34.26% to the issue price. The stock has hit a high of Rs 110.89 and a low of Rs 96.17. On the BSE, 71.13 lakh shares of the company were traded in the counter.
IPO Update:
The initial public offer (IPO) of Crizac received bids for 1,15,75,360 shares as against 2,58,36,909 shares on offer, according to stock exchange data at 16:42 IST on Wednesday (2 July 2025). The issue was subscribed 0.45 times.
The issue opened for bidding on Wednesday (2 July 2025) and it will close on Friday (04 July 2025). The price band of the IPO is fixed between Rs 233 and 245 per share. An investor can bid for a minimum of 61 equity shares and in multiples thereof.
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BRICS Summit: Focus on India-Brazil strategic partnership for a multipolar world
BRICS Summit: Focus on India-Brazil strategic partnership for a multipolar world

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BRICS Summit: Focus on India-Brazil strategic partnership for a multipolar world

With the arrival of Prime Minister Modi in Rio de Janeiro to take part in the 2025 BRICS Summit & Brasilia for a bilateral State visit, a first by an Indian PM in nearly six decades, the gaze is now on the India-Brazil Strategic Partnership. Far too long viewed essentially as South-South solidarity or symbolic multilateralism, this axis of rising power has in recent years achieved bolder geopolitical recognition. While India enhances its international footprint and Brazil restores its regional leadership, the convergences between the two democracies are no longer rhetorical; they increasingly become strategic driven by the shared vision of an equitable multipolar world order. In the midst of an expanded BRICS and rising challenges to the international system, Brazil has proved an invaluable interlocutor of India in the BRICS and the UN and in voicing the hopes and ambitions of the Global South. Brazil today matters to India not only as the largest economy of Latin America but also as a like-minded democratic country with whom India wishes to 'co-write' the rules of international governance. This convergence has been reflected also in the growing frequency and intensity of high-level interaction between the two countries. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Prime Minister Modi have also been spotted several times since Lula's 2023 re-election as the two leaders have committed to upgrading the Strategic Partnership to the next level. But the current era of geopolitics gives special meaning to their convergence. The Rio BRICS Summit, its first since the grouping expanded in 2024, occurs against the backdrop of a fracturing international order where the return of multilateralism is increasingly questioned. Western institutions increasingly appear self-absorbed and the global South is speaking out more vocally than before. In this fluid world, India and Brazil offer the world a development-focused and democratic alternative. Their collaboration in BRICS seeks to turn the grouping into more than the symbol of rising power solidarity that it is today. India and Brazil aim to make it the forum for offering tangible deliverables for the Global South in the form of alternate sources of finance like the New Development Bank or new models of trade, digital connectivity, and climate finance. Indeed, the current Brazilian presidency of BRICS this year and the upcoming Indian chairmanship in 2026 is a rare diplomatic relay. Under Lula's administration, Brazil has emphasized a more politically integrated BRICS, one advocating for democratic values and challenging the imbalances of the current world order. Modi has echoed this priority, arguing that BRICS must induce international institutional change. The two leaders ratify the idea that the Global South should no longer only be the target of international decision, but the co-author of international rules. This convergence is not limited to BRICS. The two countries are equally committed to restructuring the UN Security Council and are the most vocal members of the G4 grouping (India, Brazil, Germany, Japan) pushing for permanent representation for emergent powers. Both find the present configuration of the UNSC as archaic and unrepresentative. In their latest bilateral, Modi and Lula renewed their backing for each other's candidacies and called for time-bound negotiations in the UN. Brazil has used its presidency of the G20 in 2024 to showcase global governance reform and India has been forthright in its support of this agenda. Together, they have been able to give new impulse to what has thus been an extremely stalled process of reform. Another area of great geopolitical convergence is in their approach towards the Global South. India and Brazil have been voices of Southern solidarity, with one difference: they offer pragmatic implementable solutions. India's 2023 and Brazil's 2024 G20 presidencies were built around development agendas, of inclusive finance and food security to digital public goods and climate justice. Lula openly acknowledged the reality of the fact several of Brazil's G20 agendas borrowed from India's G20 Presidency. Modi himself has praised Brazil for continuing the momentum and ensuring continuity in the upholding of voices of the developed world. As the baton comes up to South Africa to preside over the G20 presidency next year, the IBSA trio (India-Brazil-South Africa) would have achieved the rare distinction of back-to-back leadership of the world's most powerful economic forum and offer a unique moment of Southern convergence. The bilateral is also expanding with new content. Commerce between India and Brazil has exceeded $12 billion, and complementarities in energy, agro-products, and pharma are driving the push. Indian companies like UPL, Wipro, and Tata Motors have increasingly expanded operations in Brazil, and Brazilian enterprises in mining and airlines are considering Indian marketplaces. Modi's visit is expected to deliver new deals in green energy, food processing, and defence cooperation. These steps are the bigger picture: India no longer regards Latin America as the faraway theatre of power politics and Brazil increasingly regards India as the gateway to the Indo-Pacific and the hub of the economic rise of Asia. In the coming years, India and Brazil could really transcend being co-passengers of the multilateral system and turn out to be co-designers of a new equilibrium of power internationally. As bridge-builders between the Global South and the North, between the world of the democracies and the world of the developing nations, between development and growth, their bilateral ties are now a global good. For India, Brazil is as big of a partner of BRICS as it is a center-piece of a larger diplomatic offensive aimed at democratizing international institutions and transferring normative power. When PM Modi and President Lula get together side by side at the Rio Summit, the conversation must be bold: the India-Brazil relationship is no longer peripheral but at the very core of the way the two countries see the future of world order. The strength of the relationship will be less in terms of common desire and more in terms of collaborative action, from G4 to BRICS, from the UN to the G20. In a world as desperately in need of new coalitions for reform as for peace and inclusive growth, the coming together of Delhi and Brasilia gives the world a strong, democratic, and developmental vision of the multipolar world to come. (Manish Dabhade is an Associate Professor of Diplomacy in the School of International Studies, JNU& founded The Indian Futures, an independent think tank in New Delhi; X: @imanishdabhade)

Erdogan eyes Turkey's return to F-35 program under Trump deal
Erdogan eyes Turkey's return to F-35 program under Trump deal

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Erdogan eyes Turkey's return to F-35 program under Trump deal

Washington removed Turkey out of the F-35 program in 2019 and placed penalties on Ankara a year later for purchasing a Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defence system, but with Trump's return to power, the two Nato allies look eager to resolve the conflict read more President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has voiced optimism that Turkey will be readmitted to the US F-35 project and obtain the stealth fighter fighters in accordance with 'an agreement' with US President Donald Trump. Washington removed Turkey out of the F-35 program in 2019 and placed penalties on Ankara a year later for purchasing a Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defence system, but with Trump's return to power, the two Nato allies look eager to resolve the conflict. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'I believe that Mr. Trump will remain loyal to the agreement we made. I think the F-35s will be delivered to Turkey step-by-step during his term,' Erdogan said while returning from Azerbaijan, the Anadolu state news agency reported Saturday. He gave no further details about the agreement but said the move was 'part of a geo-economic revolution.' 'The F-35 issue is not only a military technology issue for us, but also a strong partnership issue in international platforms such as Nato,' he added. The sanctions on Turkey's defence sector have soured ties between the two allies but last weekend, Washington's envoy to Ankara Tom Barrack said they were likely to be over 'by the year's end'. Trump and Erdogan would instruct their top diplomats to 'figure out the way and end it and Congress will support an intelligent solution', he told Anadolu on Sunday. In March, Erdogan spoke to Trump about the need to finalise a deal to let Turkey buy US F-16 fighter planes and be readmitted to the development programme for F-35 warplanes. And last month, he said he saw an end in sight to the sanctions, saying Turkey had seen them eased under Trump. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD

Trade, terror and the trust trap: Can India afford a reset with China?
Trade, terror and the trust trap: Can India afford a reset with China?

First Post

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Trade, terror and the trust trap: Can India afford a reset with China?

As the Brics+ summit approaches, India's fragile reset with China faces fresh strain amid Chinese support for Pakistan and financial flows that could shape regional stability read more The timing of the Pahalgam attack—during an India-China rapprochement—reignited India's security calculus and raised doubts over whether such diplomatic efforts could be meaningfully sustained. Image: Reuters File On 6–7 July 2025, the expanded Brics+ leaders will convene in Rio de Janeiro; however, the summit's choreography has already been disrupted. Beijing has confirmed that Premier Li Qiang—not President Xi Jinping—will lead the Chinese delegation, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend in person. Xi's absence throws a spotlight on the still-delicate reset that New Delhi and Beijing began in late 2024. Whether the Rio summit can consolidate that tentative détente—or expose its limits—will shape both the tone of the meeting and the broader credibility of Brics as a platform for emerging-power coordination. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Between late 2024, India and China began cautiously resetting their strained relationship, marked by a partial border agreement and a renewed focus on diplomatic and economic engagement. It aimed to de-escalate military tensions stemming from the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clash, with both sides agreeing to reduce troop presence at select friction points. This was followed by foreign minister-level talks, working-level dialogues, and backchannel efforts to revive economic ties, under pressure from regional actors to avoid further escalation. Trade and investment re-emerged as key areas of re-engagement, highlighting deep but asymmetric interdependence. Bilateral trade remained high, with Indian imports of Chinese intermediate goods dominating the market, while India's trade deficit with China widened significantly. India's vulnerability to supply chain dependencies has become increasingly evident, particularly in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and solar equipment. India also voiced its long-standing concerns over limited market access in China. It responded by selectively reopening its economy to targeted Chinese investments, especially in the electronics and infrastructure sectors. However, strategic mistrust persisted. On April 22, 2025, India was struck by a major terrorist attack in Kashmir's Pahalgam, killing 26 civilians. India accused Pakistan-based militants of responsibility and, within two weeks, launched 'Operation Sindoor' on May 7, 2025 – strikes on nine terrorist camps across the Line of Control in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The ceasefire on May 10 ended the immediate violence, but tensions have remained high since then. The timing of the attack—during an India-China rapprochement—reignited India's security calculus and raised doubts over whether such diplomatic efforts could be meaningfully sustained. Blood and Bailouts: Chinese Dollars, Deadly Dividends? Amid the India-Pakistan flare-up, Beijing has been overt in its backing of Islamabad. In a high-profile visit to Beijing in May 2025, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who publicly reaffirmed China's 'ironclad' support for Pakistan's security. China simultaneously urged both sides to dialogue, but its message was clear: Pakistan is a close ally. For New Delhi, this duality—preaching restraint while funding and shielding Pakistan—undermines China's credibility as a stabilising actor. This diplomatic posture reinforces China's 'all-weather' friendship, even as India views Pakistan as a security threat. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD At the United Nations and other forums, China has also shielded Pakistan. For example, a March 2025 report noted that Beijing blocked India's UNSC proposal to sanction five Pakistan-based terrorists, including a key Lashkar-e-Taiba figure, and similarly blocked India's call to designate the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)'s proxy 'The Resistance Front' (behind the Pahalgam attack) as global terrorists. The consistent veto of counter-terror measures at multilateral platforms adds another layer to India's frustration with the international rules-based order. China's economic investment in Pakistan underscores its strategic bond. Beijing is now Pakistan's largest bilateral creditor, with roughly US$29 billion in loans (~22 per cent of Pakistan's external debt). The flagship China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project, channels tens of billions more into Pakistani infrastructure; the latest figures top $60 billion in investment commitments. Chinese spending on power plants, railways, and the Gwadar port has become a mainstay of Pakistan's fragile economy. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In key sectors such as energy, logistics, and telecom, Chinese capital has translated into strategic leverage, blurring the lines between commercial partnership and geopolitical patronage. In fact, in February 2025, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari's visit to China culminated in new agreements to expand trade and investment, accelerate China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, and deepen security cooperation, including in the areas of technology and education. These developments further anchor the China–Pakistan alliance at a time of rising India–Pakistan tensions. Subsidising Instability: IMF, Investments, and Islamabad's Asymmetry Pakistan's stability now depends heavily on Chinese financing and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts more than ever. This pattern of external financing is not limited to China. Just a day before the Pahalgam ceasefire, the IMF approved a $2.4 billion bailout for Pakistan—$1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and $1.4 billion via its climate-focused Resilience and Sustainability Trust. While framed as support for macroeconomic stability and climate resilience, the timing raised serious questions in India. It reinforced a perception that Pakistan, despite its sponsorship of terrorism, continues to receive lifelines from global institutions without accountability or behavioural change. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The sequence—from terror attack to retaliatory strikes and then IMF disbursement—seemed to reward belligerence rather than deter it. Critics argue that even if the IMF or Chinese funds are not directly used for military purposes, they ease budgetary pressure and free up resources that could be redirected toward defence and potentially militant infrastructure - in 2025, Pakistan's defence budget was set to rise by 18 per cent, even as it secured international financial support ostensibly for economic recovery. The IMF's long-standing technical neutrality in its engagements with Pakistan has become increasingly controversial. Despite 24 bailouts since 1958, meaningful reform remains elusive, mainly due to entrenched elite resistance, military dominance, and weak civilian oversight. Repeated IMF programmes have focused on macroeconomic stabilisation, while structural dysfunction has been left unaddressed. For India, the implications are grave: international financial institutions may be inadvertently subsidising a security threat. Pakistan's chronic crisis-response cycle—backed by both Chinese investment and Western liquidity—has not reduced its reliance on strategic proxies, but instead, risks sustaining them under the guise of economic stabilisation. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Finally, Brics+ risks mirroring South Asia's own 'weaponised-bailout' paradox, where development rhetoric co-exists with permissive financing that enables destabilising proxies. The convergence of capital, conflict, and geopolitics in South Asia presents a dangerous paradox. As Pakistan leverages its strategic location to court both Chinese money and Western aid, India faces an increasingly asymmetric security landscape—one where conventional deterrence is undermined by financial impunity. The author is a research fellow at Observer Research Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.

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