European leaders plan to ask Donald Trump to justify his confidence of Israel-Iran ceasefire

The Guardian

8 hours ago

European leaders gathering for a G7 summit with Donald Trump in the Canadian Rockies plan to spend the opening day asking Donald Trump to justify his confidence that Israel and Iran will make a deal that will mean 'peace soon'.
As the military exchanges worsen and the death toll mounts on both sides, European leaders are intending to pin the US president down on his whole Iran strategy, including getting a definitive response on whether he will use his influence over Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to call a ceasefire, or instead let the war run its course.
Trump's largely unsubstantiated remarks about 'peace soon' suggest the US president surprisingly believes a ceasefire is imminent.
This would allow the rescheduling of US talks with Iran on its civil nuclear programme that had been set for Sunday but were cancelled after Israel launched its assault on Thursday night.
The Israel-Iran hostilities – and their potential to upend the world economy – have at least initially usurped the G7 summit agenda, which had been set to be dominated by disputes over the war in Ukraine and US tariffs. In a bid to avoid public conflict, Canada, the summit host, has dropped the idea of a joint communique, and wants the seven leaders to focus on critical mineral supply lines, artificial intelligence, China and energy security. A total of 15 world leaders are due to attend the two and a half-day gathering in Kananaskis, just south of the Canadian resort town of Banff.
In a close echo of Europe's largely unavailing efforts to make Trump more resolute in demanding a ceasefire from Russia in Ukraine, European leaders want to see if Trump has a plan for de-escalation in Iran. So far they have found Washington's messages to be contradictory, possibly reflecting divisions inside the administration.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, and the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, are trying to converge on a common line on Iran that goes beyond broad calls for de-escalation and restraint. Only Macron has attended a G7 summit before.
On the way to the summit, which formally starts on Monday, Merz called for diplomacy to be given space, but added Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, and urged the country to stop bombing civilian targets in Israel.
France, Germany and the UK, previously closely involved in the talks on Iran's nuclear programme, have been left in the cold by Trump, who insisted on seeking a bilateral deal with Iran.
With so many pressing issues on the agenda, Europe will be cautious in deciding how much political capital to expend on calls for a ceasefire.
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has said Israel's attacks were intended to sabotage diplomacy and that Iran's counterattacks will cease as soon as Israel's barrage ends. 'If the aggression stops, our reaction will also end,' Araghchi briefed foreign diplomats in Tehran on Sunday.
Tehran denied a Cypriot claim that it had been asked to send private messages to the US, or that it had told intermediaries that the talks due to have been held in Oman would have been productive.
Trump, as he has in the past, has blown hot and cold, praising Israel's offensive as excellent while denying Iranian allegations that the US has taken part in the attacks – an assurance Iran does not find credible. He warned Tehran not to widen its retaliation to include US facilities or interests.
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Speaking after a phone call with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, he said 'we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict.' He gave no details, but the sticking point in the talks had been whether the US would permit Iran to retain a residual domestic uranium enrichment program.
Iran insisted that despite the rapid increase in its highly enriched uranium stockpile, its nuclear programme remains entirely civilian in purpose. Israel claims Iran had a covert programme that represented a threat to its existence, and might even have been on the verge of giving terrorist groups access to nuclear weapons.
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, to which Iran broadly wished to revert, allowed Iran to enrich at low purity levels and be subject to monitoring.
Europe's fear is that the conflict is quickly spiralling out of control, and the Israeli government's agenda is not just to expunge any traces of Iran's nuclear sites, but also to attempt to trigger regime change in Tehran, including by assassinating not just its military but political leadership. Israel has formally denied this. Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, said: 'I think regime change is on the cards. I think the Israelis will take out the supreme leader if they can, as they took out [Hezbollah leader] Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.'
There will be growing pressure on Iran's current leadership to conclude that only nuclear weapons can protect Iran, making it more likely that the west would support an attempt to engineer the fall of the theocratic regime.
With its 'axis of resistance', or forward defence strategy, in disarray due to assaults on Hamas and Hezbollah, and with Israel enjoying near impunity in the skies above Iran, Tehran is left dependent on its missile supply stock holding out and the security of its Fordow nuclear plant buried deep underground in the mountains north-east of Qom.