Prediction: This Quantum Computing Stock Will Be Worth More Than Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, and Tesla Combined by 2030

Globe and Mail

a day ago

Key Points
Google parent Alphabet is already nearly worth more than Berkshire, Palantir, and Tesla combined.
If a few key assumptions hold up, the stock should be larger than these three companies within the near future.
Quantum computing probably won't be Alphabet's biggest growth driver, though.
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What do Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B), Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR), and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) have in common? Not much. However, they're all large-cap companies that have achieved significant success in recent years.
There's one common denominator we can definitely cross of the list: None of these three companies has quantum computing developments underway. But another tech giant does. And I predict it will be worth more than Berkshire, Palantir, and Tesla combined by 2030.
A potential quantum computing monster
The potential quantum computing monster I have in mind is Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL). My prediction doesn't require stepping out on a limb too much.
Alphabet's market cap currently hovers around $2.3 trillion. That's only a little below the $2.4 trillion combined market caps of Berkshire Hathaway ($1.04 trillion), Palantir ($374 billion), and Tesla ($966 million). All Alphabet needs to do is grow a little faster than these three stocks over the next five years.
I think that's doable. However, a few things have to happen for my prediction to pan out that have nothing to do with Alphabet.
All bets are off if Berkshire Hathaway pulls off a massive acquisition under Warren Buffett's successor, Greg Abel, that turbocharges the company's growth. My hunch, though, is that Abel won't attempt anything fraught with such risk in his first few years as CEO.
I'm assuming that Palantir's valuation catches up with it or that its growth doesn't catch up with its valuation. With the stock trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 278 and growth that doesn't come close to justifying this premium, I suspect I'm on pretty safe ground.
With Tesla, I'm anticipating intense competition in the electric vehicle market from BYD and others. I'm banking on Cathie Wood and her Ark Invest team being wrong about projections that Tesla's market cap will skyrocket as the robotaxi market takes off. I'm also counting on it taking more than five years for Tesla to have a major commercial hit with its Optimus humanoid robots.
Quantum computing and more
Of course, Alphabet must deliver strong growth even if my assumptions about Berkshire, Palantir, and Tesla hold up. I'm optimistic that it will.
By the way, my prediction doesn't hinge on the company having a major quantum computing breakthrough. That is a distinct possibility, though. Google Quantum AI has already achieved two of the six milestones on its quantum computing roadmap. It believes that building a useful quantum computer is feasible within this decade, too.
What I am counting on is continued impressive growth from Google Cloud. The unit's revenue soared 32% year over year in the second quarter of 2025, the fastest growth rate among the big three cloud service providers. With a massive artificial intelligence (AI) tailwind at its back, I think sustained momentum for Google Cloud should be a pretty safe bet.
I also look for Google Search, YouTube, and Alphabet's other advertising moneymakers to remain dominant in their markets. Some have warned of an existential threat to Google Search from generative AI. All I've seen so far is Google's generative AI initiatives helping secure its position in the search engine market.
While I assume that the robotaxi market won't be big enough to give Tesla a market cap of nearly $10 trillion by 2030, I do think it could provide a nice boost to Alphabet's Waymo unit. The self-driving car business is likely to become an increasingly important growth driver for Alphabet.
The elephant in the article
Admittedly, there is a potential fly in the ointment with my prediction. It's also the elephant in the room (or, in this case, the article). Could the antitrust actions against Google threaten Alphabet's growth?
Probably the best answer to this question is... maybe. However, I don't think it will happen before 2030. Google is appealing the two federal court rulings that went against it. The legal process could drag out for years. I wouldn't bet against the company prevailing. Even if it doesn't, my hunch is that most of the factors that currently make the stock attractive would remain intact.
We'll know in five years if my prediction comes true. In the meantime, I view Alphabet as the best quantum computing stock (and one of the best AI stocks) on the market.
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