Euro zone yields mixed before US data, markets await details on US-China deal
Euro zone government bond yields were mixed on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. consumer price index data later in the session and details of the outcome of trade talks between the U.S. and China.
China's Vice Premier He Lifeng said China and the U.S. should strengthen consensus and maintain communication, state news agency Xinhua reported on Wednesday, after the two countries agreed to get a delicate trade truce back on track.
Germany's 10-year yield, the euro area's benchmark, was up 1.5 basis points at 2.55%.
Negotiated wage growth across the 20-nation euro zone is seen at 3.1% this year, the ECB's monthly wage tracker showed. The ECB has long argued that wage growth around 3% would be consistent with its 2% inflation target.
Money markets fully priced in a European Central Bank rate cut of 25 bps by December and an around 60% chance of the same move in September.
The ECB's latest rate cut will help inflation bounce back to its 2% goal after an expected sag over the next year and a half, the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane said on Wednesday.
Danske Bank has removed a July cut from its forecast, assuming a final 25 bps cut in September to 1.75%, with risks tilted towards one additional cut in the fourth quarter.
It stated that the euro area economy was expanding but was edging close to stagnation, while the ECB was nearing success in its efforts to combat inflation.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Wednesday could show the CPI, less the volatile food and energy components, rising by the most in four months.
"The data is set to reinforce the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance ahead of next week's policy decision as the impact of higher tariffs remains limited for now," said Rainer Guntermann, strategist at Commerzbank.
German 2-year yields were flat at 1.86%, while 30-year yields rose 3 bps at 3.03%.
Italian 10-year yields were up 1 bp at 3.46%, leaving the gap between German and Italian yields at 88 bps. The spread hit 86.70 bps on Tuesday its lowest level since February 2021.
"We had already exited our Italy vs Bund trade, but are keeping our Italy vs France trade, as the view also reflects our concerns over France's deficit and the political picture," said Mohit Kumar, chief economist Europe at Jefferies.
Meanwhile British gilt yield rose, with the 10-year up 7 bps at 4.71%, as investors awaited a public spending review.
In an address to parliament due after 1130 GMT, British finance minister Rachel Reeves will set out day-to-day budgets for government departments from 2026 to 2029 and investment plans out to 2030.
(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo, Editing by Andrew Heavens and Alex Richardson)
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