Industrial activity shrinks 3.67% in June
The Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) for June 2025 stood at 112.95, which reflected a modest 4.14% year-on-year growth but also a steep monthly fall of 3.67% from May.
'Overall, the Large-Scale Manufacturing Sector has shown a growth of -0.74% during July-June 2024-25 when compared with the same period of last year,' noted PBS.
The LSM, which notes the growth of the industry in the country and contributes around 8% to the national GDP, contracted by 0.03% in fiscal year 2024, following a growth of 0.92% in the preceding year.
On a cumulative basis, the QIM averaged 114.82 during July-June 2024-25, lower than 115.67 recorded in the corresponding period of 2023-24, highlighting subdued momentum in the industrial economy.
The contraction was primarily driven by steep declines in cement, iron and steel, non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, machinery, and furniture. The cement sector shrank by 4.52% over the year, while iron and steel products fell 8.71%.
Similarly, production of non-metallic mineral products dropped 7.86%, electrical equipment 11.65%, machinery and equipment 35.46%, and furniture plunged by a sharp 56.26%. The food sector, which carries significant weight in the index, also contracted 3.97%, further dragging down overall performance. Chemicals and fabricated metal products recorded similar negative growth, compounding pressures on the sector.
Despite the broad-based weakness, certain industries managed to post strong gains, providing some relief. Automobile production surged by an impressive 46.15% during the fiscal year, benefiting from renewed demand and improved supply chain conditions.
Petroleum products rose 11.92%, reflecting higher refinery output. Garments grew 5.70%, while fertilisers and pharmaceuticals expanded by 1.69% and 2.97%, respectively. Textiles, the backbone of Pakistan's export sector, showed mixed results; cotton yarn and garments recorded gains, yet overall textile output fell slightly by 0.85%. Beverages and tobacco also managed recoveries after consecutive years of contraction.
'Notable improvement has been witnessed in many pivotal sectors in recent months,' said Waqas Ghani Kukaswadia, Research Head of JS Global.
Declining inflation supported LSM growth by lowering input costs and strengthening demand, he added. 'I believe that easing in outgoing months has improved the growth outlook for the large-scale manufacturing sector.'
'LSMI growth signals industrial recovery, boosting employment, exports, and government revenues,' said Ali Najib, Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Ltd.
Strong performance in automobiles and apparel supports demand and investment, while declines in machinery, minerals, and furniture highlight structural weaknesses that could restrain sustainable economic momentum.
'In my opinion, outlook remains cautiously optimistic, but persistent weakness in machinery and construction-linked sectors may hinder broad-based, sustainable industrial recovery, as indicated by LSMI numbers,' Najib told The Express Tribune.
The mixed trends in the LSM sector point to uneven growth and persistent structural weaknesses. While consumer-driven sectors like automobiles and garments showed resilience, industries linked with construction and heavy manufacturing remained under severe stress, reflecting subdued domestic demand and rising input costs.
Energy shortages, higher financing expenses, and weak investor confidence have further constrained industrial expansion. Analysts caution that without targeted policy support, energy sector reforms, and incentives to boost exports, Pakistan's manufacturing base will continue to struggle, limiting job creation and undermining the country's broader economic recovery.
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Express Tribune
2 days ago
- Express Tribune
Industrial activity shrinks 3.67% in June
Pakistan's large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector ended fiscal year 2024-25 on a weak note, contracting by 0.74% compared with the previous year, according to provisional data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) for June 2025 stood at 112.95, which reflected a modest 4.14% year-on-year growth but also a steep monthly fall of 3.67% from May. 'Overall, the Large-Scale Manufacturing Sector has shown a growth of -0.74% during July-June 2024-25 when compared with the same period of last year,' noted PBS. The LSM, which notes the growth of the industry in the country and contributes around 8% to the national GDP, contracted by 0.03% in fiscal year 2024, following a growth of 0.92% in the preceding year. On a cumulative basis, the QIM averaged 114.82 during July-June 2024-25, lower than 115.67 recorded in the corresponding period of 2023-24, highlighting subdued momentum in the industrial economy. The contraction was primarily driven by steep declines in cement, iron and steel, non-metallic mineral products, electrical equipment, machinery, and furniture. The cement sector shrank by 4.52% over the year, while iron and steel products fell 8.71%. Similarly, production of non-metallic mineral products dropped 7.86%, electrical equipment 11.65%, machinery and equipment 35.46%, and furniture plunged by a sharp 56.26%. The food sector, which carries significant weight in the index, also contracted 3.97%, further dragging down overall performance. Chemicals and fabricated metal products recorded similar negative growth, compounding pressures on the sector. Despite the broad-based weakness, certain industries managed to post strong gains, providing some relief. Automobile production surged by an impressive 46.15% during the fiscal year, benefiting from renewed demand and improved supply chain conditions. Petroleum products rose 11.92%, reflecting higher refinery output. Garments grew 5.70%, while fertilisers and pharmaceuticals expanded by 1.69% and 2.97%, respectively. Textiles, the backbone of Pakistan's export sector, showed mixed results; cotton yarn and garments recorded gains, yet overall textile output fell slightly by 0.85%. Beverages and tobacco also managed recoveries after consecutive years of contraction. 'Notable improvement has been witnessed in many pivotal sectors in recent months,' said Waqas Ghani Kukaswadia, Research Head of JS Global. Declining inflation supported LSM growth by lowering input costs and strengthening demand, he added. 'I believe that easing in outgoing months has improved the growth outlook for the large-scale manufacturing sector.' 'LSMI growth signals industrial recovery, boosting employment, exports, and government revenues,' said Ali Najib, Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Ltd. Strong performance in automobiles and apparel supports demand and investment, while declines in machinery, minerals, and furniture highlight structural weaknesses that could restrain sustainable economic momentum. 'In my opinion, outlook remains cautiously optimistic, but persistent weakness in machinery and construction-linked sectors may hinder broad-based, sustainable industrial recovery, as indicated by LSMI numbers,' Najib told The Express Tribune. The mixed trends in the LSM sector point to uneven growth and persistent structural weaknesses. While consumer-driven sectors like automobiles and garments showed resilience, industries linked with construction and heavy manufacturing remained under severe stress, reflecting subdued domestic demand and rising input costs. Energy shortages, higher financing expenses, and weak investor confidence have further constrained industrial expansion. Analysts caution that without targeted policy support, energy sector reforms, and incentives to boost exports, Pakistan's manufacturing base will continue to struggle, limiting job creation and undermining the country's broader economic recovery.
Express Tribune
3 days ago
- Express Tribune
PSX pauses below 147,000
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed the last trading session of the week on a muted note, with the benchmark KSE-100 index slipping 38 points, or 0.03%, to settle at 146,491. The market struggled to hold above the 147,000 mark as investors squared off positions ahead of the weekend. Sentiment remained mixed, with traders opting for a cautious stance while awaiting fresh triggers to guide the next market move, said Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Ltd, Ali Najib. On the sectoral front, EFERT, LUCK, ENGROH, MEBL, and AIRLINK emerged as the major gainers, contributing a combined 512 points to the index. Their gains were offset by declines in OGDC, UBL, PPL, HUBC, and MARI, which collectively shaved off 499 points. Market Snapshot – August 15, 2025 Unlock today's market moves and stay one step ahead! — PSX (@pakstockexgltd) August 15, 2025 Trading activity slowed compared to the previous day, with 472 million shares changing hands, amounting to a turnover of Rs32.8 billion. ASL topped the volume charts with 30 million shares traded. The benchmark extended its winning streak to eight consecutive weeks, advancing 1,108 points, or 0.76%, over the period. Opening the week at 145,650, the index touched a high of 147,977 and a low of 145,259 before closing at 146,491. Analysts believe progress on circular debt resolution could sustain buying momentum, though a phase of consolidation or mild correction cannot be ruled out. Immediate support is seen at the 145,000 and 143,000 levels, while resistance remains at 148,000.
Business Recorder
3 days ago
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KSE-100 Index closes flat as selling erases intra-day gains
The Pakistan Stock Exchange's (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 closed flat on Friday, as selling in the final hours erased the gains the index had made earlier during the day. The KSE-100 started the session positive, with investors rejoiced over Moody's Ratings' improvement in Pakistan's credit rating. It hit an intra-day high of 147,534.41. However, selling in the latter hours erased the intra-day gains and pushed the index into the negative territory. At close, the benchmark index settled at 146,491.63, marginally lower by 37.67 points or 0.03%. Top positive contribution to the index came from EFERT, LUCK, ENGROH, MEBL & AIRLINK, as they cumulatively contributed 512 points. On the other hand OGDC, UBL, PPL, HUBC and MARI lost value to weigh down on the index by 499 points, brokerage house Topline Securities said in its post-market report. Traded value wise AIRLINK, OGDC, PSO, LUCK, and NBP dominated the trading activity, it added. 'Investors largely squared off weekly positions, which kept sentiment mixed and prevented the index from holding above the 147,000 mark. The session's tone reflected a cautious approach ahead of the weekend, with traders balancing positions in anticipation of fresh cues for the market's next directional move,' Ali Najib, Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Ltd, said in a statement. On Wednesday, PSX experienced a session of mild profit-taking, as bears took control amid concerns over a surge in the trade deficit and unmet IMF conditions for provincial tax collection. The KSE-100 Index closed at 146,529.31 points, a decrease of 476.02 points or 0.32%. The stock market was closed on Thursday, i.e. 14th August, on account of a public holiday. Continuing its winning streak in a straight 8th week, the KSE-100 index gained 0.76% by adding 1,108 points. After opening at 145,650 the index touched a high of 147,977 and a low of 145,259 eventually closing the week at 146,491 level. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation is scheduled to visit Pakistan at the end of September, with the country expecting to receive the third tranche of $1 billion upon completion of the next review. Meanwhile, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), in its first-ever biannual Monetary Policy Report published on Wednesday, said that the return of stability in the domestic economy has promoted the country 'in a better position today to manage external shocks and domestic risks than it was two years ago'. The central bank said foreign investment inflows were projected to improve in the wake of the recent upgrade in the country's sovereign credit rating and the resultant decline in CDS (credit default swap) spreads. 'All these factors, combined with fresh liquidity moving from the debt market into equities, have contributed to the recent momentum,' Waqas Ghani, Head of Research, told Business Recorder. Globally, Asian stocks made an uneven recovery as higher-than-expected producer price inflation dampened expectations of a jumbo rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, while US bonds and equity futures stabilised. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3% after a report on Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed the Producer Price Index increased 0.9% in July on a month-over-month basis, well above economists' expectations. The market is currently pricing in a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, compared with a 100% likelihood of a cut on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The chance of a jumbo 50 basis point cut fell to 0% from an earlier expectation of 5.7% a day ago. Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee continued to march upwards against the US dollar, appreciating 0.06% in the inter-bank market on Friday. At close, the currency settled at 282.06, a gain of Re0.16. Volume on the all-share index decreased to 473.60 million from 647.09 million recorded in the previous close. The value of shares declined to Rs32.88 billion from Rs40.89 billion in the previous session. Aisha Steel Mill was the volume leader with 30.03 million shares, followed by Media Times Ltd with 21.73 million shares, and Air Link Communication Limited with 18.88 million shares. Shares of 479 companies were traded on Friday, of which 226 registered an increase, 219 recorded a fall, while 34 remained unchanged.
