Estate agents expect house prices to rise by 5% in next year
According to the latest SCSI Residential Mid-Year Market Monitor, more than half of agents believe the key factor influencing house prices over the next year will continue be the supply - or the lack of supply - of new housing.
88% of agents believe current residential property prices are expensive or very expensive - up 5% since January - while just 12% believe they are currently fair value.
60% of respondents also said they believe prices are increasing but will level off soon, while 18% believe they have peaked and should start to decline.
Property prices nationally having increased by 164.8% from their trough in early 2013, according to the Central Statistics Office.
The SCSI include five scenarios involving a couple's earning a combined income of €107,000 in the latest monitor. The purchase prices are average purchase prices of three bed semis from the society's survey based on new housing developments in the five relevant counties - Meath, Kildare, Wicklow, Cork and Galway.
The scenarios demonstrate the affordability gap, if any, which exists between the total mortgage purchase limit available to a couple on a garda and nurse income looking to buy their first home based on average new house purchase prices in five different locations.
According to these scenarios, a couple on a combined salary of €107,000 who want to buy a new privately built 3-bedroom semi-detached home and who have the 10% deposit having availed of the Help to Buy Scheme along with their savings, will afford to buy in only one of the five locations, namely Cork.
The case studies indicate prospective buyers in Wicklow will face a shortfall of almost €65,200 while in Kildare the figure is €22,000.
Gerard O'Toole, President of the SCSI, said the new figures show that affordability has become more challenging across various house types and locations.
"While a new 3-bedroom semi-detached home is affordable in Cork and buyers with additional savings beyond the 10% loan-to-income limit should be able to overcome the gap in Meath and Galway, new 3-bedroom semi-detached homes in Wicklow and Kildare remain totally out of reach for people on these salaries," Mr O'Toole said.
"In addition, there are thousands of people on lower salaries who will not be able to buy and will require support," he said.
"These findings highlight the persistent structural barrier which exists to homeownership, even for dual-income households in stable public sector roles. It also underscores broader concerns around housing sustainability, increasing commuter burdens and the potential impact on quality of life," he added.
He also said that the lack of new home building across several regions is something many members commented on in today's report.
"This is something the Government needs to address through various measures including targeted supports to unlock brownfield sites. If we are to move the supply dial, we also need to see compact growth targets set for local authorities with regular reporting requirements on planning approvals and completions," he said.
"While the increased budget for housing and key infrastructural projects announced last week in the revised National Development Plan is most welcome, the success of the plan will be measured by target delivery. That is the litmus test of any plan,' Mr O'Toole concluded.
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Sunday World
2 hours ago
- Sunday World
Counties where couples earning €100,000-plus would struggle to afford home
Supply problems mean property prices are likely to keep soaring There is also little sign of any easing in affordability pressures. A majority of estate agents who are members of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) expect property prices nationally to increase by an average of 5pc over the next 12 months. The SCSI said calculations it has done show that a garda and a nurse couple on a €107,000 combined salary will only be able to buy in one of five locations it examined. The imagined couple want to buy an averagely priced new three-bed semi-detached home. They are assumed to have the 10pc deposit. They will be unable to buy in Meath, Kildare, Wicklow and Galway. Cork was the only area a couple on such a salary could afford to buy. In the two most expensive counties, Wicklow and Kildare, the couple will face significant shortfalls. The deficit is €65,000 in Wicklow and €22,000 in Kildare for a three-bed home. And this is despite the couple availing of the State's Help-to-Buy scheme, which can see new buyers getting up to €30,000 to put towards the purchase of a home. Estate agents who are members of the SCSI said this shows the affordability gap for ordinary couples seeking to buy their first home. SCSI president Gerard O'Toole said the scenarios his organisation worked out show affordability has become more challenging across various house types and locations. 'While a new three-bedroom semi-detached home is affordable in Cork, and buyers with additional savings beyond the 10pc loan-to-income limit should be able to overcome the gap in Meath and Galway, new three-bedroom semi-detached homes in Wicklow and Kildare remain totally out of reach for people on these salaries,' he said. These findings highlight the persistent structural barrier which exists to homeownership 'In addition, there are thousands of people on lower salaries who will not be able to buy and will require support.' Mr O'Toole said calculations for two- and three-bed terraced houses in the same five locations show affordability being met in nearly all locations. However, the couple would require some additional savings in Kildare and Wicklow in order to buy a three-bed terraced home. 'These findings highlight the persistent structural barrier which exists to homeownership, even for dual-income households in stable public sector roles,' Mr O'Toole said. 'It also underscores broader concerns around housing sustainability, increasing commuter burdens and the potential impact on quality of life.' Property prices are continuing to surge. Photo: Stock image According to the latest SCSI 'Residential Mid-Year Market Monitor' report, over half of agents believe the key factor influencing house prices over the next 12 months will continue be the lack of supply of new housing. A majority of estate agents believe current residential property prices are expensive or very expensive. When asked where they believe we are in the market cycle, 60pc of respondents believe prices are increasing but will level off soon. Some 18pc believe they have peaked and should start to decline. The SCSI report found 70pc of agents are reporting low stock levels of new and second-hand homes. 'Over the past five years, more than half of agents have consistently highlighted low stock levels, stressing that constrained supply remains a fundamental issue impacting the market,' the report said.
The Irish Sun
15 hours ago
- The Irish Sun
We went from no savings to buying first €375k new home 20 mins outside Dublin at 25 with little-known €100k scheme help
BUYING a home in Ireland in the current climate can feel like an impossible task. But Casey Harris and her fiancé Alex Nugent have lifted the lid on how they went from no savings to going sale agreed on a €375,000 house in just one year. 6 Thrilled Casey and Alex went from having no savings to getting a foot on the property ladder 6 The former Dublin Rose is looking forward to moving into her own home later this year 6 Casey and Alex are very excited to see what the future holds 6 Artist's and Alex's new-build will look similar to above The thrilled couple will move into their new two-bedroom home in Trim, Co Singer and music teacher Casey said the couple made use of every assistance scheme they could when it came to getting on the property ladder - and reckons they Casey, 25, told the Irish Sun: 'We've been together for five years, we got engaged at the beginning of 2024 and in the midst of wedding planning we decided to knuckle down and look at buying a house. 'We didn't think it would happen as quickly as it did. 'We kind of went and made an appointment with the bank, spoke to a mortgage advisor in the bank to get an idea of what sort of figure we needed to be saving. 'We had it in our head that we needed a ten per cent deposit saved.' Casey said the couple weren't fully sure what they were getting themselves in for, but once they heard of schemes to assist first-time buyers, they started to believe their dream might just come true. She continued: 'At this point, we didn't even know where they were building houses; we hadn't even looked into that at all. 'Along the journey, we started to hear about all these schemes available to first-time buyers buying new-builds. 'The more we started looking into them, the more we were like, hang on, this is not as impossible as you might think looking at it from the outside. I'm 25 and bought my own home - here's how I used every scheme to make my dream come true 'Suddenly you've got this figure in your head, like we need to save about €40,000 deposit, but then you've got Help to Buy, which brings that down to €10,000, which is so much more doable.' But their first hopes of a home in Casey explained: 'So along the way we found out about these schemes and then we were looking into the affordable purchase scheme which is overseen by the local county council. 'We had applied for a house out in Donabate but we didn't end up getting one. 'So we took a bit of a knock there.' But it wasn't long before they were back on track. Casey said: 'Pretty soon after that we found the house that we ended up buying and it was eligible for the First Home scheme and the Help to Buy scheme which we then ended up using as well. 'It was mad how it all came together really quickly.' Casey, who represented Dublin at the Rose of Tralee, and fiancé Alex, who works in sales, first looked to the Help to Buy Scheme - an incentive helping first-time buyers get their first house. It allows those who qualify to claim back income tax and deposit interest retention tax paid to the State over the four years before making a claim. Casey and Alex were lucky enough to qualify for the full tax refund amounting to €30,000 - enough for a ten per cent deposit. This meant that the couple had to come up with the remaining €7,500 themselves. And they used the First Home Scheme - which is available to first-time buyers, self-builders, and fresh start applicants to get a foot in the door. It involves the provider handing over 20 per cent of the cost of a new home and in return, the State owns an equity share in the property which can be bought back if and when the homeowner chooses. Casey said the remaining difference of €50,000 that the couple needed to pay off represented about 13 per cent of the house, which was bought by the State under the equity scheme. She reckons they've got almost €100,000 in relief from the various schemes to be left with a €287,000 mortgage which she said she realises is 'still a lot'. Casey said the couple lived with their families while saving money for the house. She explained: 'By the time we applied for the mortgage, we had about €15,000 in savings to put towards everything. 'Once we started the mortgage application process, we continued to save over the couple of months that the whole process took. 'Obviously, you've got your stamp duty, legal fees, and everything else to pay as well, and then you've got to furnish the house and put your floors in too. 'There's no set figure, but I just think it's important that people know when you're using the schemes, you're not having to pay €30,000 or €40,000 out of your own pocket.' Casey told how the couple got advice from a mortgage broker who made the whole process a lot smoother. And she said not everyone trying to buy their own home even realises that the rent they're paying will be taken into account when it comes to mortgage eligibility. She added: 'It's hard to save money when you're renting, but a lot of people renting don't realise that the bank will take into account what you're paying every month. 'So if you're paying €1,200 a month in rent, they take that into account and say you'll be able to afford a €1,200 mortgage. 'Initially we went to the bank because I know nothing about the process from the off, I've no financial background whatsoever, I knew very little about the process. 'So we went to the bank and it was suggested to us that we could look at getting a mortgage broker, and it was the best decision we could have made. 'Our broker was unbelievable, he made the whole process such smooth sailing for us. 'So the house price was €375,000 - that's paid with the mortgage which was €287,000 and the schemes, we got €30,000 from Help to Buy off the deposit, and we used the First Home scheme that gave us the remaining money. 'That scheme is then that they own an equity share in your house and you can buy them out if you want to.' SHOP AROUND But the journey wasn't without setbacks, as the couple were refused a mortgage on one of their earliest attempts. But Casey said the trick to finding the right mortgage is to shop around as different banks have different rules. She said: 'We were refused a mortgage from one bank, and then two banks were giving us about €40,000 less than what we were looking for after they assessed our situation. 'We ended up getting what we were looking for from two other banks, so different banks look at things different ways, they all have their own systems, obviously when we got refused from the first bank we panicked. 'We had everything in order so for them to say no it was kind of a panic button. 'So it's important to know that there are several banks you can look at, your options are out there. 'That's what I'd be saying to anyone applying: apply to as many banks as possible and then you've got your pick of the bunch. 'We went from having no mortgage on a Monday to having two mortgages on a Friday.' WHAT IS THE HELP TO BUY SCHEME? IRELAND'S Help to Buy (HTB) Scheme assists first-time buyers in either: Purchasing a newly-built house or apartment Constructing a new home themselves This scheme is only applicable to properties priced at €500,000 or less, and you are required to reside in the property as your primary home. Under the Help to Buy Scheme, you can claim a refund of the income tax and Deposit Interest Retention Tax (DIRT) paid in Ireland during the four years preceding the year of your application. In July 2020, the HTB Scheme was expanded, introducing what is referred to as the Enhanced Help to Buy Scheme. To be eligible, you must be a first-time buyer purchasing or self-building a new residential property between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2029. (The scheme was previously available for homes bought or built between July 19, 2016 and December 31, 2016, but claims had to be made by December 31, 2019). If you are purchasing or building the property with another person, they must also be a first-time buyer. You will not be eligible if: You have previously bought or built a house or apartment, either alone or jointly with someone else. This applies even if you are now separated or divorced and have relinquished your interest in the property. You have owned a property abroad. You do not intend to use the property as your main residence for at least five years after purchasing or building it (the HTB Scheme is not available for investment properties). You have not taken out a mortgage for the property. If you have inherited or been gifted a property but wish to buy or build a new home, you may still qualify for the HTB Scheme, provided you meet all the other eligibility criteria. And Casey's advice to young people who fear never owning their own home in Ireland is to keep your eye on the prize and make use of the schemes available. And she said that while it's easy to get stuck in the narrative that buying a house is near impossible, she urged young people not to lose hope. The future homeowner said: 'Don't get bogged down in all the narratives that you hear, it's not an easy thing to do by any means but if you set your sights on it and make yourself aware of the schemes that are out there to help you, keep your options open. 'We were dead set on living in Dublin because we work in Dublin and we wanted to buy a three-bedroom house, but we ended up going for a two-bedroom house in Meath. 'So you need to manage your expectations a little bit and be a little bit flexible about what you're looking for, how realistic it is for you once you have a rough idea of your mortgage and what you can afford and how the scheme will help you. 'Keep an open mind and don't get bogged down in the negativity, it is possible, and it's not as treacherous as it might be made out to be.' And the couple, who are set to be married in 2027, are beyond excited about their big move. Casey added: 'It's really exciting, it's a really, really exciting time, we're looking at being in the house before Christmas so that will be really special. 'We're getting married in 2027 and knowing that once we're in we can get into planning the wedding properly and even just having your own space, it's really exciting.' 6 Casey believes it's not impossible to buy a house in Ireland and shared her tips 6 The kitchen and dining area will look similar to this
Irish Examiner
18 hours ago
- Irish Examiner
Irish gross domestic product contracts amid fall-off in pharmaceuticals
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