Growth data strong, RBI likely to maintain accommodative stance: Sunil Subramaniam
ETMarkets.com
The big trigger that the market is waiting for is the satisfactory conclusion of the bilateral trade agreement between the US and July 9th is when the 90-day pause gets over.
"The trigger which will drive the market on the contrary is something international related, that is, India specific international related. I am talking about the BTA. The big trigger that the market is waiting for is the satisfactory conclusion of the bilateral trade agreement between the US and July 9th is when the 90-day pause gets over," says Sunil Subramaniam, Market Expert.
I guess the next big trigger is going to be the RBI MPC meet and all chatter is getting louder that it is going to be a 25 bps cut this time around. What do you think is going to please the markets?
Sunil Subramaniam: Well, what will please the market is obviously not just 25, but 50. But I am in the minority here where I think RBI may skip a rate cut and I think that they will focus on continuing the accommodative stance. They will focus on transmission. They will make sure that any bottlenecks in for transmission. The last two rate cuts have not been fully passed on yet. So, RBI's focus will be more in terms of ensuring transmission because the growth numbers have come in very well. Other than the GDP numbers, you have the PMI numbers also indicating a very, 62 if I remember the flash PMI overall composite that I saw. So, my own sense is that maybe, like I said, I am in the minority, maybe RBI may skip a rate cut but give a very good guidance in terms of continuing the accommodative stance and perhaps doing some more steps to ensure the liquidity remains strong.
So, does that mean now when you go ahead in the markets, do you think that now the entire trend has become more domestic oriented news flow because you have seen the markets actually do absolutely nothing. Over the last almost six months, the only move or only trigger that has been for the markets have been the commentary coming in from global stalwarts. So, what is your take, now you think in the next six months the market will actually focus inwards, look at domestic growth triggers or domestic indicators to actually move upwards and I am talking about next six months as in for the calendar year?
Sunil Subramaniam: So, actually speaking, the positive domestic triggers have already been at play in terms of the fact that the DIIs, especially the domestic mutual funds, this month have stepped up the buying. Otherwise, the international uncertainty that you mentioned would have led to a far significant correction in the Indian markets, that has not happened because domestic mutual funds who had built up their cash balances till April, I remember something like 2.5 lakh crores, have started deploying the extra cash in this month and have protected the market. So, the domestic factors coming into play are already there in terms of the DMFs coming through. But to your point that over the next six months do you think it is these domestics? I think the good news is already in the price. The trigger which will drive the market on the contrary is something international related, that is, India specific international related. I am talking about the BTA. The big trigger that the market is waiting for is the satisfactory conclusion of the bilateral trade agreement between the US and July 9th is when the 90-day pause gets over. So, if that comes through, the uncertainty that is prevailing around India from an FII perspective I feel will go away a lot and you should see the next leg up of the rally happening with the BTA more and yes, naturally we can say that the BTA is going to open up domestic sectors for export oriented, the story is domestic, of course, but the cue for FIIs and that is what has got to take the market up because domestic fund managers have now begun deploying their cash balances, so the continuance of the SIP book and everything will continue to give them buying support, but a leg up for the market will come from the return of the FII, which I see as post BTA news flowing out, that is the big trigger.
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