Edmonton Oilers complete reasonable expectations for the 2025-26 season

New York Times

2 days ago

The Edmonton Oilers will enter the 2025-26 season with a strong defence, an exceptional group of centres and (as of this writing) the return of a much-maligned goaltending tandem. The wingers on this year's team? Best described as being in a period of transition.
For the past decade, I've predicted the Oilers' goals-for and goals-against, plus individual scoring totals. Some years are diamonds, some years are stone. Here's what 'reasonable expectations' have looked like through the early and middle of the decade for the Oilers:
My estimates were in the range on goals-against for three straight seasons before last year, and the Oilers' offence has been a moving target all four seasons. Math is hard, and the 2025-26 season is difficult to project due to several newcomers on the wing (notably rookies Matt Savoie and Ike Howard) and a returning set of goaltenders who did not perform well in the playoffs. For the record, Edmonton's goals against last year (235) was better than league average (247) for the fifth season in a row.
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One year ago in the reasonable expectations article, I highlighted three young players (Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway) who had room to grow and improve the roster. As it turned out, Broberg and Holloway were lost to offer sheets by the St. Louis Blues and Skinner regressed.
This year, the potential offer sheet (Evan Bouchard) has been signed and the club has two more youngsters (Savoie, Howard) ready to face the challenge of a rookie NHL season. Here's a look at the 2025-26 Oilers season, and what 'reasonable' looks like for a team in transition.
The coaching staff has a massive advantage from the opening whistle with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the roster. Expect both men to improve on last year's point totals, with Draisaitl projected to score 50 goals for the fifth time in his career. The top winger will be Zach Hyman, with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (more on him in the next section) also contributing from the wing on the power play. Vasily Podkolzin probably slides down the depth chart as the season wears along, but don't discount the possibility of a breakout campaign if he can hang with Draisaitl again in 2025-26.
The two young wingers will play on the top two lines, but not for the entire season and not at the same time (at least, not until the second half of the season at the earliest). Savoie should spike in the first 20 games, and could pass 40 points if he gets some time on the power play. Howard is likely to take time to adjust to pro hockey, and could spend time in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors. Andrew Mangiapane, a veteran addition, should improve his numbers from last season due to quality of linemates.
McDavid and Draisaitl will centre the top two lines, and coach Kris Knoblauch may well decide to deploy two more veterans in the middle on the third and fourth lines. Nugent-Hopkins probably moves to No. 3 centre due to a lack of veteran pivots on the roster; his power-play aplomb will keep him on the top unit, and much of the offence seen here will come with the man advantage. Adam Henrique's offence faded last year, and he could fill the centre role on the fourth line.
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There are some wingers listed in the depth category who could surprise. I've listed Trent Frederic as part of the depth group, but he will push Podkolzin and Howard for time on the top two lines at left wing during the winter. The rest of the wingers should fall into place on the third and fourth lines, although David Tomasek and Kasperi Kapanen are wild cards who could land in surprising places.
One player who may be vulnerable is Mattias Janmark. He may lose his roster spot to Noah Philp during training camp. Philp is a right-shooting centre who would have great utility on the roster. The fact Janmark is still ahead of him owes in part to Philp's poor faceoff winning percentage last season.
One of the reasons Edmonton's offence was off a year ago was the league-wide reduction in power plays. No Oilers player was affected more than Bouchard, and his offence could continue to manifest in lower numbers if the league calls the game in the same fashion as last season. The numbers below reflect the new rules for NHL infractions.
The Oilers' defence will be a strength if everyone stays healthy. Bouchard will lead the way offensively, while also delivering fabulous scoring numbers at five-on-five. If he can reduce the number of mistakes with the puck, Bouchard will get more credit for his splendid work. Single events in a game can have enormous impact, while also being single events.
Mattias Ekholm, Jake Walman and Darnell Nurse round out the top four. This is a veteran crew with some offensive flair from each player, and it's possible the Oilers ice four defencemen who exceed 30 points this season. If the NHL gets back to calling the game as it did a couple of years ago, that goal total could spike in a big way.
We reach the pivotal pressure point for this edition of the Oilers. No major roster moves have been made in goal, so Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard are the projected netminders for the coming season. The chances of Edmonton deploying these two men exclusively all season, including the playoffs, should be considered a long shot.
The Oilers are already an impressive shot suppression team; last season's SA/60 across all game states ranked No. 9 (26.75 per game). At five-on-five, the most common game state, Edmonton's SA/60 (26.06) was No. 11 overall. For a high-octane offence like the Oilers', those suppression numbers are pristine. The payoff should be a better goals-against average.
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The 2025-26 projections have Skinner improving marginally and Pickard taking a small step back. These numbers could flip, but Skinner's youth and possible return to something resembling his 2022-23 season (.914 save percentage) give him the edge. Fans should expect either a Stanley Cup delivered with Skinner-Pickard or a complete overhaul in goal by this time next year. Possibly sooner.
This year's projections have the Oilers improving offensively, owing to a more mobile defence, a stronger season from captain McDavid and (in the second half) rookies Savoie and Howard contributing consistently.
The goaltending runs in place, with a minor lift from Skinner but an overall repeat of 2023-24 and 2024-25. In those two seasons, the Oilers made it deep into the Stanley Cup Final, and the roster should push for a championship again in 2025-26.
A stronger goalie bet would make these numbers hum.
(Photo of Evan Bouchard: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
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