Bihar Elections 2025: Who Gains, Who Loses If AAP Contests On All 243 Seats?
Curated By : Satyaki Baidya
Translation Desk
Last Updated: June 12, 2025, 18:17 IST
AAP is reportedly eyeing urban and young voters, traditionally seen as the support base of the RJD and Congress. (PTI/File)
In a move that could reshape the dynamics of the upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has announced it will contest all 243 seats on its own. Once a part of the opposition INDIA bloc, AAP's decision to go solo is expected to add a new twist to the state's political equation, potentially affecting the fortunes of both the ruling NDA and the opposition alliance.
Political experts note that despite AAP's limited support base in Bihar and its underwhelming performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections—where it contested a few of the 40 seats without securing any wins—the party's decision to contest all 243 assembly seats signals its growing ambitions and intent to expand its political footprint.
AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal said, 'We will go among the people in Bihar on issues like education, health, and electricity." The party is reportedly eyeing urban and young voters, traditionally seen as the support base of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress. Which Alliance Stands To Lose From Kejriwal's Move?
According to political commentators, AAP's move could hurt the INDIA alliance, which includes the RJD, Congress, and Left parties. RJD's core vote base in Bihar comprises Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits, while Congress holds sway in some urban and Dalit constituencies. Many have expressed that AAP's presence may divide these votes—particularly in closely contested seats—ultimately benefiting the NDA.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the INDIA bloc won 9 seats in Bihar, while the NDA secured 30. Experts note that if AAP cuts into the RJD and Congress vote share, it could directly benefit the BJP and Janata Dal (United). Which Alliance Can Benefit?
Political experts believe that AAP's decision could indirectly benefit the NDA. The NDA's strength in Bihar comes from the alliance of BJP, JDU, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM). In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA secured 52% of the vote share, while the INDIA alliance got 42%. According to political analyst Yashwant Deshmukh, 'Voting in Bihar is based on arithmetic. If the NDA remains united, it is difficult to defeat it." Experts note that the division of opposition votes due to AAP's presence may make it easier for the NDA to win.
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Political commentators argue that AAP's decision to contest all seats is a risky move, given Bihar's political landscape shaped by complex caste equations and the dominance of strong regional parties. According to experts, while AAP's Delhi model may resonate with urban voters, regional parties like the RJD and JDU maintain deep-rooted influence in rural areas. Analysts further suggest that even if AAP secures 5–10% of the vote, it could significantly damage the INDIA bloc's prospects.
Many believe that while AAP's strategy may help the party position itself as a long-term alternative in Bihar, the immediate impact is likely to hurt the INDIA alliance the most. Commentators point out that a division in opposition votes could ultimately strengthen the NDA's position. All eyes are now on how Bihar's electorate responds and how effective AAP's campaign proves to be on the ground. News elections Bihar Elections 2025: Who Gains, Who Loses If AAP Contests On All 243 Seats?
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