How Trump's "big, beautiful bill" could affect Tampa Bay

Axios

11-07-2025

The impact of Trump's signature tax and spending legislation, the " big, beautiful bill," will depend on where you sit in the economy, says University of South Florida economics professor Michael Snipes.
Why it matters: Tampa Bay's working-class and older residents are expected to be the hardest hit.
"If you're someone who relies on social programs," he tells Axios, "you're going to be negatively affected."
State of play: The bill slashes funds for Medicare and Medicaid — the former provides health coverage for seniors as well as those with disabilities, while the latter helps those with low income.
Cuts to both programs will impact the region's healthcare industry and its outcomes, says Jeff Felardo, associate professor of economics at Eckerd College.
"Fewer people will be able to access health care, and the cuts could also force smaller clinics to shut down simply because they no longer have the revenue to stay open," Snipes adds.
Between the lines: The cuts place the onus on state and local governments to make up for the losses, or else risk a "severe void" in critical services.
This comes as state lawmakers push for more tax cuts, Snipes tells Axios, potentially widening the gap between the services Florida is now responsible for and the revenue available to fund them.
Zoom in: " Because of Tampa Bay's location, the defunding of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and FEMA will have a greater impact here than the rest of the nation," says Felardo.
Felardo tells Axios that the Tampa Bay National Weather Service Office in Ruskin is at risk due to NOAA staff reductions and consolidation.
The bottom line: "There are still people and businesses that are recovering from last year's hurricanes in Tampa Bay," Snipe says. "If it's that hard to recover now, just think about how much harder it will be to recover when we don't have reliable weather forecasts or FEMA."