The most overvalued fantasy baseball players, including Freddie Freeman, James Wood and more
I gave you the good news first in my column on undervalued players. Now it's time for the bad news — the players who do not deserve their ADP, according to NFBC drafts the past two weeks. I am showing my work here, and you can agree or disagree. I'm not just mindlessly saying, 'The vibes on this player are good.'
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How is Rutschman a clean player at this point? If he was punished in ADP, I might be in (It's never the player; it's always the price). Rutschman, off a disastrous second half with enormous trouble hitting when catching (vs. DH) and horrible platoon splits, somehow has the same overall ADP as in 2024. He was exactly league-average in overall Statcast expected hitting. The walks collapsed. His K% increased (yes, it's still good).
Could he be worth a pick at the Round 2/3 turn? Absolutely. But even Hall of Fame first basemen often struggle at age 35. Dick Allen, Carl Yastrzemski (played first base at that age), Todd Helton, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Tony Pérez, Eddie Murray … all were significantly worse by then. At age 34, Freeman struggled in bat speed, exit velocity, and expected ISO (slugging minus average). There is virtually no chance he outperforms ADP. I generally pass on those players in this area of the draft unless there is a super high floor. And no one has a high floor at age 35.
How? Why? Where is Albies guaranteed to help you? Maybe he hits sixth. Maybe he hits eighth. Look at all this blue ink on his Statcast page. I need to believe I'm moving the needle in multiple places with my top seven hitters, and Albies is going as a fifth-round pick. Yes, he hit 33 homers in 2023. But I project him as a 20-homer hitter. He has a little bit of speed. And I get that second base is weak this year, but you can just wait. Take Jeff McNeil with the last pick in your reserve round, and you have a similar hitter.
I typically do not care about off-the-field stuff, but Abrams being suspended for conduct detrimental to the team so late in 2024 was super weird. I don't draft 'super weird' when it has this kind of sticker price. If Abrams had been great last year, maybe I'd forgive or forget. But from July 1 on, he had a .610 OPS in 63 games (.199 average). He did steal 17 bases in this span, with seven homers, but he's likely to have an OPS in the high .600s to low .700s like he's had his entire career beyond the first few months of 2024. What are we buying here? The speed isn't worth this much.
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Oddly, I wouldn't push back on the ADP of a single third baseman in the top 100. So, jump into the queue fearlessly.
I admit to having a bias against super tall hitters (they have long swings, generally). When they prove that's not an issue, I look at the positive traits with height, which is leverage/power. But Wood is an extreme ground-ball hitter. His average launch angle was two degrees (about one-sixth the average). He really struggled hitting breaking stuff. He's a very fast but very inefficient base-stealer. Again, Wood is a top prospect. There's a lot to like here. But I'll be surprised if he's a first-round pick next year, and I have to believe there's a good chance of that happening to draft him this high, even at age 22.
Sale is 35, and it's hard for me to pay so much more for him now than last year (83rd overall). He finished 2024 with a back injury, and his fastball topped out at 95 mph in his first spring start (vs. 97.1 in 2024). He's a year older now. He's pitched 634 innings the past seven years — he sat out the pandemic season. There's less upside, given he's a year older, and more injury risk in light of all the wear-and-tear he added in 2024. Bottom line: Sale can't get me off my strategy of avoiding starting pitchers for the first five rounds.
I don't care about his postseason struggles (again). He's a great pitcher in real life, but I need a ton of surplus Ks from my closer. You want 25-27% Ks from your staff, and here's Clase occupying a roster spot and falling short of that. I need my closers to be at 30% or above. In 70 innings, Clase is striking out 65, and you want 80+ out of that spot. So, you're down roughly 20 Ks, and you have to compensate with starters, which is expensive. Ks for closers are way cheaper and often even free. Edwin Diaz could get 40 more Ks than Clase, and no one would find it remarkable; however, it's of massive category value.
(Top photo of Freddie Freeman: Joe Camporeale / Imagn Images)
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Forbes
5 days ago
- Forbes
Untimely Wins Led To White Sox Missing Out On Witt, Rutschman
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New York Times
27-05-2025
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball buy, sell, hold advice on Mookie Betts, Gunnar Henderson and more
Generally, hitters are correctly viewed as the back of their baseball cards. Any performance that deviates too far from that, especially regarding veteran hitters, is viewed as more of a fluke than a fact. Pitchers are different, given there are so many ways for them to radically improve or decline and sustain those new levels. Again, we should be skeptical when a player's hitting significantly changes. Advertisement However, we now have new data: expected stats. If hitters are improving their contact profiles at a fundamental level a third of the way into the season, supported by their year-over-year data from Statcast/Baseball Savant, does that warrant a fresh projection? If that's the case, some hitters are currently undervalued based on Yahoo roster rates. Additionally, some hitters have had an unexpected collapse in contact performance, with their fantasy managers still holding steady based on the baseball-card theory for hitting projections. 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He's a strong-side platoon option who has not hit lefties. But he's getting more plate appearances against lefties than in 2024, so this doesn't account for his 17.4% boost in expected performance compared to last year. He was viewed as a top college hitter and, as a top 20% MLB bat in these expected stats, he's beginning to realize that potential. Advertisement Ryan Jeffers (MIN, C) is just 17% rostered. Even in one-catcher leagues, this roster rate is too low. He's been batting leadoff. There's no reason he can't finish the season at a 20-homer pace. His Ks are down so much that he should help at least a little in batting average. His 75th-percentile walk rate should keep him in the leadoff spot even when Byron Buxton returns. He had an .859 actual OPS in 2023, when his xwOBA was less than what it is now (.333 vs. today's .352 — 72nd percentile). These players are slumping badly, but no one seems to believe it. Should w,e though? All are very young players in MLB experience. Lawrence Butler (ATH, OF) is delivering homers and steals at the rates we wanted, but he's been an unexceptional hitter overall — actual OPS of .729 vs. .807 last year and an almost identical 9% decline in xwOBA. His whiff rate on breaking balls is 48.2%, compared to 26.9% last year. He has adjustments to make, but can he make them on the fly? Jackson Chourio (MIL, OF) is, like Butler, undroppable for the homers and steals. But he's still a big disappointment, failing to pick up where he left off as one of the game's best hitters in the second half of 2024. His OPS is just .695. His expected stats are down 11.9% — gross! He's chasing way more than last year (3rd percentile). He's a 16th-percentile hitter. Coming into the season, I wanted all the Chourio I could get, and I obviously got ahead of myself. Gunnar Henderson (BAL, SS) is surprisingly a below-average hitter in expected statistics and has arguably gotten lucky to have only a 108-point OPS decline from 2024. 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Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Yahoo
Fantasy Football: Most-interesting players to monitor during training camp and the preseason
The Yahoo Fantasy Football crew reveals the player or situation they're most interested in keeping an eye on during training camp and the preseason. Here is what they'll be watching ... Cowboys' murky backfield I'll be paying close attention to Dallas' backfield this summer with both Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott gone. Javonte Williams has the highest early 'expert consensus rank' as the RB37, but he failed miserably despite being given a terrific opportunity (he saw the fifth most RB targets) in Denver last season. Williams ranked last among 37 qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt, but he enters atop Dallas' depth chart and says he finally 'feels like myself again' three years removed from multi-ligament surgery. Williams' ability to pass protect could once again lead to volume. Advertisement Jaydon Blue is the RB54 and a rookie with upside. He ran the fastest 40 time among this year's RB class, but Blue is also just 195 pounds with only 214 career rush attempts who's a fifth-round pick with a serious fumbling problem. It's possible Miles Sanders is washed, but he only recently turned 28 and is two seasons removed from totaling 1,423 yards and 11 touchdowns (admittedly in a friendly Philadelphia system). He should be free in fantasy drafts (RB77), making Sanders a worthwhile flier. Dallas' offensive line will have a new look, but the Cowboys can score a bunch of points with a healthy Dak Prescott (while playing indoors and with George Pickens added). Dowdle was a top 15 fantasy back over the final six games last season in this system, and that was with Prescott sidelined. The Cowboys want to run, so one of these backs can have a bunch of fantasy value should they emerge as the clear leader this summer. — Dalton Del Don Advertisement [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] Rome Odunze's fit with the Bears in Year 2 Any number of Chicago Bears would be appropriate answers to this question, including the team's second-year quarterback and first-year head coach. But for me, Rome Odunze is the guy I'm keeping both eyes on throughout camp and the preseason. Expectations of a breakout second season have been fully baked into his early ADP (WR30 at NFFC). Before the NFL Draft, it was easy to make the argument that all those Keenan Allen targets from 2024 had to go somewhere, resulting in almost unlimited volume for Odunze. Today, with Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III added to the mix, the workload picture isn't so clear. Advertisement Odunze was on the receiving end of several high-level, field-flipping completions from Caleb Williams last season, like this one right here: Still, the pair also had an alarming number of missed connections as rookies — and, hey, that's probably OK. They were each experiencing NFL speed and defensive pressure for the first time, while enduring scandalously poor coaching. In theory, everything about this year's setup is better than last year's setup. Odunze's place in the team's receiving hierarchy remains unsettled, however, and we're going to need to track it closely. — Andy Behrens Drake Maye building chemistry with his pass-catchers Like many, I'm excited about the Patriots. After a messy 4-13 season, they cleaned out the coaching staff and had a pundit-approved draft. The team is projected to win 8.5 games in the over/under market, a significant improvement. But given the intriguing personnel and the upgrade at coaching, I understand the root of the optimism. Advertisement Second-year QB Drake Maye is at the center of things, and I'll be tracking him closely. Returning OC Josh McDaniels was a smart rehire — maybe he's miscast as a head coach, but I love him as a play designer. Who is Maye clicking with? What does veteran receiver Stefon Diggs have left? Is rookie wideout Kyle Williams a possible breakthrough player in Year 1? What's remaining in the Hunter Henry tank? Whenever Maye throws a pass this summer, my eyes and ears will be engaged. The New England passing game could be fun this fall. — Scott Pianowski Matthew Golden carving out a role in Green Bay Matthew Golden is just WR50 in early consensus FantasyPros rankings. That is despite the fact that he's a Round 1 wideout who went to good NFL offense that needed some juice in the receiver room. There appears to be a hesitation among the fantasy community. It's likely born from two things. A handful of data-based analysts are skeptical of Golden because of his lackluster collegiate production profile. There's not much Golden can do about that at this point but he can show well throughout the offseason to solidify his spot as one of, if not the top receiver on the depth chart. Understanding his place in the team's receiver hierarchy would neutralize the second aspect causing hesitation in ranking him higher. There could be real value in a player of Golden's talent continuing to go off the board around WR50, especially since his vertical skill set profiles as a receiver who carries a high weekly ceiling projection. It will be well worth tracking camp reports and preseason action to get an idea of Golden's role and whether he will be an every-down player, or yet another rotating Packers receiver despite the draft capital spent to acquire his services. — Matt Harmon
