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21-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
2025 Fantasy Baseball: 60 Undervalued Players, from Jasson Domínguez to Bo Bichette
A little later than I would have preferred, but here are all my favorite picks for 2025, excluding likely first- and second-rounders. Players are listed alongside their placement in my Top 300, their current Yahoo ADP and their NFBC ADP post-March 1. 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Rankings, strategy, sleepers, mock draft results Your one-stop-shop for Rotoworld's preseason fantasy baseball content. Rotoworld Staff, Rotoworld Staff, Willson Contreras - 72nd in Top 300 - 118 in Yahoo - 67 in NFBCGabriel Moreno - 274th in Top 300 - 40% undrafted in Yahoo - 175 in NFBCIván Herrera - 297th in Top 300 - 69% undrafted in Yahoo - 213 in NFBC As always, the caveat here is that NFBC is a two-catcher format, whereas my rankings and Yahoo drafts are set for one-catcher leagues. In spite of that, I actually have the elder Contreras awfully close to his NFBC ADP. I've been guilty in the past of overrating catchers moving to easier positions, thinking it would give them a performance boost not to have to deal with the catcher grind. With Contreras, though, I'm not doing that; I'm projecting him for an .806 OPS that would be lower than any of his marks from the last three years. But I am expecting him to remain healthy and play in 150 games. On those rare occasions that I've failed to land Contreras in drafts, I've been waiting until the very end to get a catcher, probably Moreno. One other name to keep in mind here is Oakland's Tyler Soderstrom; it looks like he could gain five-game catcher eligibility by the end of April, and he might spend the rest of the year as a top-five fantasy catcher. Triston Casas - 89th in Top 300 - 117 in Yahoo - 118 in NFBCSpencer Steer - 96th in Top 300 - 148 in Yahoo - 169 in NFBCMichael Toglia - 99th in Top 300 - 203 in Yahoo - 175 in NFBCChristian Encarnacion-Strand - 161st in Top 300 - 235 in Yahoo - 222 in NFBCTyler Soderstrom - 187th in Top 300 - 81% undrafted in Yahoo - 274 in NFBC Not my favorite position this year. It's scary to me that Toglia rates as my best value pick, because I don't actually believe he'll be very good; I have him hitting a Coors-aided .237/.318/.473. He certainly has plenty of power, and I expect that he'll hit 30 homers if the Rockies give him 600 plate appearances. And I do expect that the Rockies will give him 600 plate appearances, for better or worse. Casas has disappointed as a fantasy first baseman to date, but we're talking about a 25-year-old with a career 125 OPS+ who is set to mostly bat cleanup for a team that plays in one of baseball's best ballparks for offense. He shouldn't be going outside of the top 100. Matt McLain - 65th in Top 300 - 78 in Yahoo - 77 in NFBCJonathan India - 120th in Top 300 - 235 in Yahoo - 231 in NFBCChristopher Morel - 122nd in Top 300 - 63% undrafted in Yahoo - 253 in NFBCMaikel Garcia - 131st in Top 300 - 241 in Yahoo - 202 in NFBCBrandon Lowe - 146th in Top 300 - 218 in Yahoo - 201 in NFBC Two Royals and two Rays. That India is going so late in drafts really surprises me. Leaving Cincinnati hurts some, but Kansas City is another good offensive ballpark, especially for someone who isn't a big home run guy. He's going to lead off in front of Bobby Witt Jr., and he's a better bet to stay healthy while getting a lot of time at DH and in left field. He could go 15 HR/15 SB and rank among the AL leaders in runs. It's less surprising that Morel is going so late, especially since he struggled so mightily after the trade from the Cubs to the Rays. Still, there's a lot of upside here for someone who is basically free in drafts. He's in a better ballpark now, and the Rays are committed to giving him a long look in left field. The talent is there: he ranked in the top 20 in MLB in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate in 2023. Fantasy Baseball: Bold predictions from Rotoworld staff for 2025 MLB season Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews is among the players the Rotoworld Baseball staff believes in for 2025. Rotoworld Staff, Rotoworld Staff, Austin Riley - 18th in Top 300 - 29 in Yahoo - 29 in NFBCAlec Bohm - 82nd in Top 300 - 137 in Yahoo - 158 in NFBCIsaac Paredes - 94th in Top 300 - 164 in Yahoo - 169 in NFBCJosh Jung - 162nd in Top 300 - 212 in Yahoo - 203 in NFBCRyan McMahon - 198th in Top 300 - 65% undrafted in Yahoo - 291 in NFBC The player the Cubs got for Morel last summer makes an appearance here, but only because he was since traded to Houston in the Kyle Tucker deal. Paredes and Wrigley Field were not a match, but the Crawford Boxes will suit him very well. Paredes hit 47 homers in 244 games for the Rays before 2023 and '24, and the left field corner in Houston is even more inviting than Tropicana Field's. He'll hurt a bit in average and steals, but he should be pretty helpful in runs and RBI while hitting high in the Astros lineup. Bohm has driven in 97 runs in back-to-back seasons, but he still could do better while hitting either third or fourth for the Phillies this season. More homers would be nice and are still a possibility, but he'll make a ton of contact while probably hitting with men on base as often as anyone in the league. Oneil Cruz - 25th in Top 300 - 48 in Yahoo - 34 in NFBCCJ Abrams - 35th in Top 300 - 56 in Yahoo - 49 in NFBCBo Bichette - 49th in Top 300 - 102 in Yahoo - 110 in NFBCAnthony Volpe - 56th in Top 300 - 159 in Yahoo - 146 in NFBCEzequiel Tovar - 78th in Top 300 - 132 in Yahoo - 127 in NFBCZach Neto - 114th in Top 300 - 210 in Yahoo - 203 in NFBCJeremy Peña - 139th in Top 300 - 200 in Yahoo -158 in NFBCTrevor Story - 172nd in Top 300 - 244 in Yahoo - 252 in NFBC The Bichette of this spring looks a lot more like the one who hit .298 with 24 homers per year from 2021-23 than the one who was a complete bust in 2024. He's even doing some running, though he's been caught on two of his three steal attempts. He's going to hit either first or fourth for Toronto, and I can scarcely imagine him not being a bargain at his current ADP. Again pulling the ball, Volpe is back swinging more like he did as a rookie than as a sophomore, when he traded power for contact. That he's 24 next month and physically stronger than he was at 22 should lead to greater success, and I think a 30 HR/30 SB season is a real possibility here. Neto would be a top-60 player for me if he weren't coming off shoulder surgery. He could be back before the end of April, and he's a great stash at his current price tag. Josh Lowe - 60th in Top 300 - 178 in Yahoo - 157 in NFBCJasson Domínguez - 61st in Top 300 - 152 in Yahoo - 143 in NFBCGarrett Mitchell - 147th in Top 300 - 60% undrafted in Yahoo - 250 in NFBC Ronald Acuña Jr. - 21st in Top 300 - 35 in Yahoo - 35 in NFBCWyatt Langford - 28th in Top 300 - 53 in Yahoo - 38 in NFBCJames Wood - 33rd in Top 300 - 62 in Yahoo - 50 in NFBCLawrence Butler - 38th in Top 300 - 75 in Yahoo - 56 in NFBCBrenton Doyle - 47th in Top 300 - 81 in Yahoo - 67 in NFBCLuis Robert Jr. - 50th in Top 300 - 106 in Yahoo - 81 in NFBCDylan Crews - 55 in Top 300 - 135 in Yahoo - 113 in NFBCIan Happ - 70th in Top 300 - 134 in Yahoo - 122 in NFBCPete Crow-Armstrong - 105th in Top 300 - 141 in Yahoo - 127 in NFBCByron Buxton - 155th in Top 300 - 236 in Yahoo - 204 in NFBCNolan Jones - 175th in Top 300 - 43% undrafted in Yahoo - 254 in NFBC Steinbrenner Field, the Rays' temporary home for the year, isn't a hitter's haven, but just getting out of The Trop should benefit all of the team's bats, especially the lefties. I'd be high on Lowe regardless, though. His strikeout rate soared last year after his dramatic improvement in 2023, but his contact numbers weren't any worse. He has plenty of pop, and he's proven to be one of the game's best basestealers. It looks like he'll play against most lefties, so he offers five-category potential. I'm stunned about low Domínguez is going after all of the years of hype. With his homer and steal ability, he's not going to need to be particularly good to prove valuable in fantasy leagues. I gather part of the reason that he's going so low is that most of the projections out there have him finishing well shy of 600 plate appearances. But I just don't see why that's the case. I don't have Domínguez towering over the league as a rookie -- my projection calls for a .248/.322/.428 line -- but I do have him getting 600 plate appearances and finishing with 20+ homers and steals. Mitchell has his contact and injury issues, but he's mustered 13 homers and 20 steals in 365 major league plate appearances to date. He might fall into a platoon role at some point, but he should play regularly while Blake Perkins is out and hit in the middle of the Brewers order against righties. He's a great end-game pick. There's a lot of debate about Langford as a third-round pick, but he's in such a great situation; he doesn't need to perform like a superstar in order to return that kind of value while hitting third for the Rangers. ... Wood, Butler and Doyle are also 20 HR/20 SB guys for me. Crews might fall short there in homers, but I think people are underselling his steal potential. He's legitimately one of the fastest guys in the league, and he was 12-for-15 stealing bases in just 31 games after his callup last season. ... Buxton is basically free. When he gets hurt, you can just drop him if you want. He seems good right now, and he's the No. 3 hitter for one of the league's better offenses. Garrett Mitchell, Gavin Williams among Rotoworld staff's most drafted players for 2025 The Rotoworld staff unveil the players they have drafted the most this spring. Rotoworld Staff, Rotoworld Staff, Logan Gilbert - 22nd in Top 300 - 33 in Yahoo - 30 in NFBCJacob deGrom - 34th in Top 300 - 55 in Yahoo - 54 in NFBCTanner Bibee - 57th in Top 300 - 96 in Yahoo - 104 in NFBCCristopher Sánchez - 66th in Top 300 - 174 in Yahoo - 154 in NFBCJoe Ryan - 69th in Top 300 - 112 in Yahoo - 106 in NFBCGeorge Kirby - 71st in Top 300 - ???Spencer Strider - 73rd in Top 300 - 119 in Yahoo - 108 in NFBCBryan Woo - 110th in Top 300 - 136 in Yahoo - 137 in NFBCBrandon Pfaadt - 123rd in Top 300 - 184 in Yahoo - 192 in NFBCReese Olson - 145th in Top 300 - 47% undrafted in Yahoo - 248 in NFBCDrew Rasmussen - 166th in Top 300 - 207 in Yahoo - 256 in NFBCBrandon Woodruff - 160th in Top 300 - 222 in Yahoo - 253 in NFBCJesús Luzardo - 178th in Top 300 - 235 in Yahoo - 233 in NFBCClay Holmes - 180th in Top 300 - 208 in Yahoo - 209 in NFBCJustin Verlander - 222nd in Top 300 - 75% undrafted in Yahoo - 325 in NFBC Some of these ADPs are getting obsolete. Strider is up to 94 in NFBC over the last week. Sánchez is 141. I left off Kirby's ADPs here because of the recent news about his shoulder, but he's 140 in NFBC over the last week. I think it's well worth taking a chance on him. He had similarly described shoulder issues a couple of times earlier in his career and overcame them both times. He was my No. 6 SP prior to the injury. Ryan had been my single favorite SP pick this year, as I wasn't expecting any sort of hangover from last year's teres major strain. However, I am concerned about his velocity drop last time out. He was down about 1-1.5 mph from last year in his spring debut Mar. 6, which seemed fine. However, in his March 17 start, he was down 2.5-3 mph compared to last year. There were no injury concerns mentioned afterwards. Maybe it's a dead-arm period and will prove to be nothing, but I did drop him from 10th to 14th among SPs. Pfaadt wound up with a 4.71 ERA last season, but that came with a 3.61 FIP, a 3.78 xERA and a 3.65 SIERA. He also offers a great deal of win potential as a particularly efficient starter on a team with a strong offense. ... Olson has a 3.75 ERA and a 23% strikeout rate through two big-league seasons, and now he's seen a significant uptick in velocity this spring. He's a top-40 SP for me. Jeff Hoffman - 97th in Top 300 - 121 in Yahoo - 131 in NFBCTrevor Megill - 140th in Top 300 - 131 in Yahoo - 156 in NFBCKenley Jansen - 150th in Top 300 - 161 in Yahoo - 186 in NFBCA.J. Puk - 194th in Top 300 - 213 in Yahoo - 257 in NFBCBeau Brieske - 207 in Top 300 - 93% undrafted in Yahoo - 607 in NFBCMike Clevinger - 228th in Top 300 - 85% undrafted in Yahoo - 585 in NFBC Concern about Hoffman's shoulder reportedly scuttled two deals for the free agent in the offseason, but his stuff has been up to par this spring. I think he'll be a top-10 closer as a Blue Jay. I have Justin Martinez ranked ahead of Puk, and my guess is that he'll wind up leading the Diamondbacks in saves. Still, I fully expect Puk to be one of the game's best relievers, and he should offer some value even if he's limited to 8-10 saves over the course of the year. Brieske is my favorite of the Tigers relievers. Jason Foley might get the call initially, but his velocity has been down a couple miles per hour this spring.
NBC Sports
17-03-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
2025 Fantasy Baseball: Salary Cap League Strategy and Results from NFBC Draft
On Friday, March 14th I entered my first official salary cap draft of the 2025 fantasy baseball season – a $150 Online Auction Championship at the NFBC. For those that are not familiar, it's a 15-team format that utilizes 23 roster spots – 14 hitters (2 Catchers, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, Corner Infield, Middle Infield, 5 OF and Utility) and 9 pitchers. Each team is given $260 to spend during the salary cap draft and the entire 23-man starting roster must be filled out during the salary cap draft. There is then a seven-round reserve draft afterwards. In addition to competing for league prizes in this 15-team league, there is also an overall component in which this team will be competing against all other leagues for overall prizes as well. Over the years in this space and in our draft guide I have already delved deeply into basic strategy for salary cap drafts, but for this article I wanted to give readers a deeper insight into my personal process for these types of drafts. In fact, I'm writing up this first section the day before the draft. Rotoworld Staff, NFBC SALARY CAP DRAFT STRATEGY Let me start out by saying that I'm not the type of drafter who has dollar values for every particular player that will be available in the draft and who goes into the draft simply looking for discounts and to accumulate as much 'value' as I possibly can. I'm someone who believes strongly in getting my guys, and I'm willing to go down fighting with the players that I think are the best options on the board. Entering this draft, or any draft for that matter, I usually start with about 25% of the player pool crossed off my board and around another 25% that I'd only really be interested in at a steep discount. Going into the draft, my plan is to allocate around 59% of my budget on the hitting side ($140) and 41% ($120) on the pitching side. That's slightly more skewed to pitching than the current industry standard, but as you'll see the thought process behind it below, hopefully you'll understand. When building a draft plan for a snake draft or an auction, I usually start out by working backwards. Identifying the lower cost options that I'm comfortable building my team around and then filling in from there to see where I need to spend up or allocate my dollars elsewhere. This year, there are several low-cost starting pitching targets that I want to come out of the draft with – Bowden Francis, Justin Verlander and Matthew Boyd. For this planning exercise, I'm going to look at average auction values (AAV) at the NFBC since the calendar flipped to March to give me an idea on what types of prices I'll need to budget to acquire the players that I want. What's super helpful about that tool is that it provides not only the average, but also the minimum and maximum bid that each player has gone for. At the time of writing this, there data is made up of 18 salary cap drafts that have run during that timeframe. On average, Verlander has gone for $1, with a maximum of $2. We have seen his price start to rise though, as he's moved inside of the top 300 according to average draft position (ADP) since the Main Event drafts have kicked off, so it wouldn't be surprising if it wound up taking $3 to get him. It just depends on when he's nominated in the draft and what type of budget remaining the other players have that may be interested. We're going to put $3 in for him on the sheet and work from there. Boyd is a bit more interesting. He has averaged $2 but has gone anywhere between $1 and $4. That one $4 bid could just be one manager with $4 left over to fill his final SP spot at the end of the draft and he didn't want to leave money on the table. It could also mean that there's genuine interest in Boyd from a particular sect of drafters. We're going to take the AAV and mark him down for $2. I'm pretty confident that for $5 total we should be able to acquire both Verlander and Boyd. Working up from there, we get to Bowden Francis. He's a player that I'm much higher on than the market this season and a player that is a must have for me in this draft. Like Boyd, he's currently running an AAV of $2, though that comes with a min of $1 and a max of $5. There's also one draft where he wasn't even taken which boggles my mind. We're going to go the conservative route again and mark him down for $4. So we have three targets among our seven starting pitcher spots. What about the two RP spots? My favorite target at the position at the moment is Tanner Scott. I trust that Dave Roberts is going to deploy him as their primary closer and that he's going to rack up a plethora of saves while being backed by the best offense in all of baseball. His AAV at the moment is $13 with a min of $11 and a max of $18. The top closers on the board are pulling in much higher totals than Scott's maximum with Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader and Devin Williams all averaging $22 while Edwin Diaz, Mason Miller and Raisel Iglesias each average $21. We'll put $18 down for Scott but hope that we don't have to go quite that high. That also means we could jump into the bidding for Devin Williams if we can get him in that $18-$20 range. My favorite RP2 target all draft season to this point has been Ryan Pressly, and I don't see a reason why that needs to change now. His AAV sits at $9 and we're hopeful that we can get him for anything close to that price. Fallback options if we are forced to pivot could be Kenley Jansen ($10 AAV) or perhaps Kyle Finnegan or Carlos Estevez who are each going for $8. Now we have the bottom half of our rotation and both of our closers mapped out. Let's get to the offense and see if there are any cheap must haves that we can pencil in before figuring out where we really want to allocate our funds. Matthew Pouliot, The first option that stands out to me is Joey Bart. He's someone that I have been targeting everywhere as my second catcher this year and the market price continues to fall on him, making him a nice potential value option. His AAV in these drafts has been $3 with a minimum of $1 and a max of $6. We'll pencil in $4 for now, hoping that we can get him on the cheaper side and reallocate a few of those dollars elsewhere. With that being said though, I could always see myself moving up the board to get a better option as a second catcher if I think the value is there. That's one spot where I'll probably have more flexibility than some others. Another player that I'm very high on at cost that's going for a large bargain according to my board is Paul Goldschmidt. His current AAV is $10 with a min of $7 and a max of $14. As a potential corner infielder for me, I'd love to get him around $10, but at $14 I'm not sure I love it quite as much. We're hoping to land in the $10-$12 range, so we'll mark him down for $11 and adjust from there. The reason that I'm mentioning Goldschmidt as my CI option as because I plan on having my first base position filled already with Freddie Freeman. To me, he's one of the best five category contributors on the entire board and perhaps the top overall first baseman. I thought it was odd when he slid to the middle of the second round to start the draft season and now he's falling even further to the end of the second or into the third round on average. That's utter lunacy. His AAV is $25 with a min of $22 and a high of $29. We'll use that $29 number as our target to ensure that we get him, but hopefully it'll come a few dollars cheaper. The next big target for me on offense is Matt McLain. We have start to see his price rise a bit in recent weeks, but still not to the place that it needs to be for me to look another direction. His AAV is currently $18 with a min of $14 and max of $22. Once again, we'll work off of that max value and adjust from there if we have to. Since I was able to (hopefully) land my final three rotation targets at affordable prices, I'm willing to pay top dollar to acquire one of the top two options on the board at the position, either Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal. I have Skenes a hair ahead of Skubal on my board currently, but they are very close. Both have an AAV of $37 right now while Skenes has gone as high as $39 and Skubal has touched $40. We'll use the $40 as a guide. For the purpose of this auction, I'd be perfectly fine dropping down instead to Corbin Burnes to be my SP2. I think pitching closer to his home in Arizona will do wonders and we've all seen what the revamped cutter did at the end of the 2024 season and it has carried over into Cactus League play. His AAV sits at $24 with a min of $21 and a max of $26. I'm fine putting $27 down and going to there if I have to while still hoping to secure him at a discount. In between my two aces and the arms that I want to acquire at the bottom of my rotation sits Robbie Ray. He has been dominant in each of his first three Cactus League starts and the price on him has started to soar, so it will probably take more than the AAV and probably more than the max bid to get him. We're going to try to fit that in though. Right now his AAV is $10 with a max of $15. We'll pencil in that $15 and adjust from there. That's eight targets on the pitching side with nine spots to fill. Adding up those estimated amounts gets me to $118. Assume the last SP is a $1 guy, and that will give us $119 on the pitching side, just under the $120 that we had budgeted above. I'd be thrilled to get that staff though, and I think some of the estimates are high. Any excess dollars that we wind up with there can be reallocated to the offense. Now to find some additional targets on offense. Lawrence Butler is a player that I have been actively targeting throughout the draft season. The problem, is that his price is on the rise. I can probably fit him in around is AAV ($24) but if he starts to approach his max ($29), I probably have to bow out. I'm going to give me a shot at him for $26 and see what we can do. My top shortstop target, especially in the mid-range, is Bo Bichette. I think in his walk year he's poised for a major bounce back season. Expect a return to his elite batting average and counting stats and I even believe that he's going to start running again to bolster that free agent contract. We're looking to get him around his AAV ($14). Back to the outfield, we're a big believer in everything that Victor Robles showed with the Mariners last season and will gladly take him anywhere near his AAV of $9. So what does that leave us with at the moment? We still need to fill our top catcher, third base, middle infield, three outfielders and utility. All for a grand total of $26. Yikes. Let's hammer out the catcher position because that's the important one here. We would love to be able to get up to Willson Contreras at $19, but if we're building with the huge pitching staff that has Skenes as an anchor, it's probably not in the cards. If we wind up pivoting and take Burnes as our ace, more spending on the catcher position would be in play. Instead, we're going to drop down the list a bit and look at Cal Raleigh. It's still expensive, but he's going to provide huge power production at the position and a handful of stolen bases. He'll be an average drain, sure, but with Freeman and Bichette in tow to help offset that, I think we can make it work. Raleigh for $15. There's a plethora of middle infield options that I like for $1, so I'm not terribly worried about that one. I also like a lot of cheap outfielders at the end of drafts, so I'm confident I can pick up three guys that I like there for $1-3 each if necessary. Same goes for utility. To me, that makes third base the next focus. This one could depend on what my team needs are at the point in the draft that I'd be looking at the position. If I'm short on power, Eugenio Suarez ($8) may be a good fit. If I need unconventional speed, Matt Shaw ($6) is awfully intriguing. If I'm forced to shop in the bargain bin, Ryan McMahon ($3) and Max Muncy ($2) look appealing. In fact, Muncy at $3 may be the play that goes into the plan, and if I have extra dollars to allocate, I can move up from there. For that middle infield spot, we're probably looking in the range of Gleyber Torres ($4), Trevor Story ($4), Thairo Estrada ($3), Colt Keith ($3), Hyeseong Kim ($2) depending on what we can afford and what we need. We'll put Story on the board as the placeholder. That would leave me with three $1 outfielders and a $1 player at utility. Not ideal, but we plan on having excess that we can move there once we lock in a couple of discounts. The bargain bin that I'm hoping to shop from in the outfield includes Michael Conforto ($4), Parker Meadows ($3), JJ Bleday ($3), Trevor Larnach ($2), Daulton Varsho ($2), Max Kepler ($1), Jake Fraley ($1), Tommy Pham ($1) and a host of others. If I can climb higher up the list, my interest would be on Kerry Carpenter ($6). SALARY CAP DRAFT RESULTS And we're back! Most times, even the best laid plans turn out very differently than the final product due to unforeseen events that happen over the course of a draft. While there was a bit of that here, the finished product actually looks strikingly similar to the plan that was outlined above. To make sure of the direction of the team, we called out Paul Skenes as our first bid (seventh overall in the draft). If we couldn't get him for $40, we knew we would have to make a play for Tarik Skubal instead. If we couldn't get Skubal, we'd pivot and shift some funds over to the offense, so just knowing whether or not we could get one of those aces was paramount. Fortunately, we were able to acquire Skenes for $38 and we were off and running. In the second round of nominations we picked up Lawrence Butler as our OF1 for the $26 that we had allocated. So far, so good. The next round of nominations brought us our first closer in Tanner Scott, though we were able to snag him for $14 instead of the $18 that we had dedicated to the spot. Between that and the $2 we saved on Skenes, we now had an extra $6 to move around. In the fourth round of nominations I became intrigued as the bidding started to stall out on Logan Gilbert. I had him down as a $30-$32 player, but we had just $27 budgeted for Corbin Burnes as our SP2. I took a chance and went to $28 and managed to land Gilbert at a pretty significant discount. We now had our SP2. Also in the fourth round of nominations we made a play for Willson Contreras, though he went out of our range at $19. Instead, we went $1 above our budgeted amount and pulled in Cal Raleigh to be our top catcher for $16. In the fifth round of nominations, our top hitting target finally came up for bid. We had budgeted $29 to acquire Freddie Freeman, but it only took $26 to get the job done. That's another $3 to reallocate. We took at shot at using those excess funds on Andres Muñoz as a second closer but came up $1 short when he went for $18. Two picks later, Corbin Burnes came up for bid. He had originally been in our plan as our SP2 for $27, but that changed when we picked up Logan Gilbert unexpectedly. The draft plan called for Robbie Ray to be our SP3 at $15, so it would take all of our surplus and then some if we were going to make a run at Burnes, and we would be sacrificing Ray in the process. We entered into the fray and were shocked to come away with Burnes for only $24. Skenes, Gilbert and Burnes is an absolutely amazing top three, though we would be limited now to the original low-cost targets that we had planned at the position. We continued to push the pace two picks later, grabbing Ryan Pressly as our RP2 for the $8, $1 less than we had budgeted for him. Obviously love the way the team is coming together at this point, though we have spent a large chunk of our budget and would need to pull back the reins at some point. We sat on our hands for a couple of rounds and then nominated Matt McLain during the seventh round. He was our top hitting target remaining and I wanted to find out if we were going to be able to acquire him or if I would need to pivot to other options. We had budgeted $22 for the spot and only needed to go to $20 to secure him. That's a huge win in my book. The next big play that we attempted to make was Bo Bichette. We had planned to acquire him for somewhere close to $14 to man the shortstop position for us – and went as high as $17 – but it wasn't enough to seal the deal. We would need to pivot elsewhere at the position. That pivot materialized in the next round, landing Willy Adames for $12. He's a comparable player to Bichette – if not better – and we got him for $2 less than our original budget for the position. We'll take it. We took a run at a couple of players over the next few rounds, but nothing fit into the budget. It was particularly hard to watch Bryan Reynolds go for just $13. The next bid ended up being another unexpected one. Rather than using our last big spend on offense at the CI position (where we had Paul Goldschmidt slotted for $11), I liked the way that Luis Garcia Jr. fit our current team construction better and grabbed him to be our middle infielder for $11. We then had to watch Robbie Ray go for just $12, with nothing that we could do about it. That one hurt. We took a run at Matt Chapman, but he went for $14. We went to $10 on Adolis Garcia but came up $1 short. We also went to the $9 on Jurickson Profar but couldn't pull the trigger to go to $11. We tried to land Gavin Williams, but he went over our range at $9. A couple of picks later we did add Bowden Francis for the $4 that we had allocated for him. I tried to muster the courage to go an extra dollar to land Eugenio Suarez, but couldn't do it with the limited funds remaining. I regret that one for sure, letting him go by for just $6. Tried to get Parker Meadows, but didn't want to go to $4. Goldschmidt did end up going for the $11 that we had originally budgeted for him, but we couldn't get there. Went to $6 on Randy Arozarena but someone else wound up with a nice discount at $7. Tried to get Scherzer for a few bucks but he went all the way to $7, which had my worried about my ability to acquire Justin Verlander and Matthew Boyd. In the 15th round of nominations we finally got our second outfielder, getting Victor Robles for $8, $1 under our budget. That was a really big get for us, as we needed that speed and outfield was starting to look like a problem area with us needing three more in addition to Robles. In the 16th round our second catcher target Joey Bart came up for bid. We thought budgeting $4 there made it extremely likely that we could get him, but he ultimately went for $6. Part of the problem here, is that there were two teams in the auction that had way too much money left to spend, and even if they landed all of the top options on the board, they were going to finish with a large surplus. That meant that I couldn't really nominate anyone that I actually wanted, as I risked losing them to the two big spenders. In the 17th round we pushed for Ryan Mountcastle and Kerry Carpenter but came up short on both. Carpenter wound up going for $8. Later that round our original target at middle infield, Trevor Story, went for $5. Since we pivoted to Garcia though, we had that spot already locked up. We made a strong bid to land Matt Shaw as our third baseman, but couldn't go to $8 to get him. At this stage, we still had 10 spots left to fill (C2, 3B, CI, OF3, OF4, OF5, UTIL and three pitchers) and only $25 to get it done. That would mean waiting and hoping to score some late discounts while the two managers with all the money grabbed anyone and everyone that they wanted. We bid on JJ Bleday for one of those outfield spots, but bowed out when he got to $4. Tried to get Josh Jung to play third base, but also stepped away when he got to $4. We did wind up getting Max Muncy to play the hot corner for just $2, which is $1 less than we had planned on in the budget. We followed that up with a $2 Matthew Boyd that fit exactly what we had wanted to do with that spot. The more of these spots that were getting filled with players and amounts that we had budgeted in the original plan, the better that I felt about the draft in general. Made several attempts to acquire a second catcher and missed on all of them. That was going to end up being a disaster spot. I'm usually a drafter that pays up for both catcher spots, so having to grab a $1 option at the position and figure it out will be a new challenge for me. In the 21st round of nominations we grabbed our third outfielder finally with Michael Conforto for $5. We then tabbed Kyle Higashioka as our second catcher for $1, though that position is going to rotate most weeks as I churn the waiver wire until something sticks. Somehow also in the 21st round, we were able to snag Jesus Sanchez as our OF4 for only $2. That's a nice discount in general, but even moreso because of how it happened. One of the managers that had all of the money remaining (like $64 or something with one OF spot to fill), nominated Sanchez for $1. I thought going to $2 would be a futile exercise as he would just go as high as he needed to, but it counted down and we scored a deal that we never thought we would get. In the 22nd round I picked up Colt Keith for $3 to be our UTIL to start the season. He's 2B eligible and will gain 1B within the first two weeks of the season though and I liked that extra flexibility in addition to loving the player in general. We nominated and scored Justin Verlander for $1 later in that round. We added Kris Bubic to round out the rotation for $2 and added Trevor Larnach for $2 to the outfield mix. We settled for Josh Bell as our CI for $1, though it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't last long on this team. Overall, we had 18 specific names penciled into the original draft plan. Of those 18, we acquired 13 of them. That's pretty good. We also added a few of the late OF names that we had mentioned, but didn't put particular names into the draft plan. Unfortunately, we committed the cardinal sin of leaving money on the table in this draft. It's something that I absolutely hate doing, though the way this particular draft played out with those two whales left at the end, it was almost unavoidable. I left with $4 in my pocket and would certainly like to go back and dedicate that to a $4 second catcher instead of what I wound up with. DAVID SHOVEIN'S NFBC ROSTER Our biggest weaknesses are obviously the second catcher position, corner infield and the back half of the outfield. This pitching staff should be able to compete with anyone though. I started to attack some of those spots in the reserve rounds, adding Mitch Garver as another early season catcher option. We also added Jake Fraley and Max Kepler to the outfield mix. Every team in a 15-team draft is going to have weaknesses somewhere though, and I'm most comfortable having to find a couple of guys in the outfield. I truly believe that this team should finish in the top third of this league and could put itself into the mix for overall prizes if things break the right way. Here's a look at how the rest of the league fared. Team 1 One of the managers in the league who left a substantial amount of money on the table ($43), it's difficult to envision this squad doing enough to compete. Spending just $14 on starting pitching is certainly a choice. The offense looks alright as a whole, I just can't see this team competing for the podium at the end of the season. Team 2 At a glance, this feels like a middle of the pack team. He overspent at the catcher position compared to AAV, but as we saw when I targeted Bart, there simply wasn't much left and he didn't want to get left out in the cold. His front three starting pitchers feel incredibly light. I also don't think this squad has the requisite speed needed to take down the league. Team 3 Now this team is interesting to me. They dedicated a huge portion of their budget toward their offense, going with a 70/30 build, and they did so with a stars and scrubs approach up there anchored by Elly De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson and William Contreras. Just judging by ADP, he assembled $20 of surplus value on offense, which is a gigantic figure. What intrigues me about this team though is the pitching. Despite the limited budget there, he assembled a high ceiling staff full of high strikeout arms. If they all hit and avoid the injured list, this team should be very competitive not just for the league prizes, but could make some noise in the overall. Team 4 At a glance, this team feels like it should finish in the upper half of the league, but I'm not sure that it has enough juice to win the whole thing. The offense is very solid as a whole, though it does feel light on power – which can be a very difficult category to make up. I like the top two starters, but the rest of the rotation scares me quite a bit. I think he's going to wind up battling his pitching ratios for most of the season which may hold him back from really competing. Team 5 Just looking at the difference between AAV and the prices that they got, it would appear that Team 5 did well for himself – especially on the pitching front where he got a surplus of $14 by hammering the arms in the middle of the draft. I'd be a bit leery of trusting Roki Sasaki to be my ace, but that's just a personal preference. He chose to spread the wealth on offense with a steady, balanced approach. Wyatt Langford is his most expensive hitter at $26, and I'm actually bummed that I didn't go the extra dollar there. At the time I was still waiting on Lawrence Butler and didn't want to give him up to make a play for Langford. This should be a competitive team. Team 6 This is another team that's fascinating to me. He devoted over 75% of his budget to the hitting side, and even paid a premium for most of his hitters – and it definitely shows. That outfield has the potential to be legendary if all three of the perennially injured players (Trout, Robert Jr. and Buxton) remain healthy. The pitching side has me concerned though. Obviously it's going to be a bit weaker if you're only devoting 24.24% of your budget there, but purposely taking Max Scherzer as your SP3 is a choice. There's a ton of injury risk in all five of his starting pitchers, and I'm not sure that going with four closers was the best strategy if underspending on pitching. I see major concerns in wins and strikeouts and the ratios are no guarantee either. Team 8 Now this is a scary team to compete against. Team 8 utilized a similar split to me, with 51.15% dedicated to offense and 48.85% on the pitching side. He went full stars and scrubs on offense, with Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. carrying the team and no other player over $7. I have to hope that the rest of his offense struggles and that he's unable to find viable replacements for those that don't perform enough. The pitching is terrific, as you'd expect with that much dedicated to it. Four strong horses atop the rotation and if deGrom says healthy that group is going to be awesome. Best closer duo in the league so far with Hader and Williams. This is a very good team and should compete for the league prizes at a minimum. Team 9 At first glance, Team 9 has plenty of power to spare on what looks like it could be a very strong offense. My only concern is speed. Even with Jacob Young, it feels light overall in the category, and if Young ends up losing his job with the Nationals it could wind up being a real problem. The starting rotation is alright, though the particular players that he chose aren't exactly my cup of tea. Saves feel like they're in a questionable place as well. He grabbed both arms from the Diamondbacks in the hopes of getting the closer there, so for his sake I hope that there's clarity to the role early in the season, because you don't really want to be starting both of them at the same time. Team 10 The first thing that you notice with Team 10 is that he left $11 on the table, but made up for it a bit by gaining $11 in surplus value. Would've been fun to see what he could have done with another $11 in play though. The offense is outstanding, as there is plenty of power and speed up and down the order with no one or two players being counted on to carry the load. The pitching on the other hand is a work in progress. I like Logan Webb and Robbie Ray each quite a bit, but relying on them to be my SP1 and SP2 would make me panic. He also chose to ignore the closer position almost completely, grabbing a $1 Jason Foley as an endgame option. He's going to have to dedicate quite a bit of FAAB towards finding saves while also attempting to add arms to a rotation that still needs strikeouts. Either that or he punts saves completely and rolls eight or nine starters all year. Team 11 For starters, I love the balance on offense from this team. Every single player on the roster could hit 15 or more home runs and there are five or six guys that should contribute 20 or more stolen bases. That's the type of balance that I strive for in every draft. I'm not in love with the pitching staff though. Garrett Crochet is fine as an ace, but I'm not trusting Luis Castillo and Justin Steele as my SP2 and SP3 – and it gets even worse behind there. Love Raisel Iglesias as an RP1 but not taking a second closer is a bold strategy, especially after locking in Iglesias. Team 12 The power is very strong on this offense, which is impressive considering it contains Luis Arraez and Maikel Garcia bringing the total down. That's what happens when you build a killer base with Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Salvador Perez. The pitching staff is much more of a work in progress, despite having Tarik Skubal as an anchor at the top. He only drafted five starters and is counting on a full season from Shane McClanahan who is coming back from Tommy John surgery. He took several shots at a second closer to pair with Jhoan Duran, so he'll need at least one of those three to land a job to compete in the saves category. Team 13 I'll be honest, this team scares me. Team 13 was assembled by a drafter who I have competed against for many years and whose game I truly respect, and it shows in the squad that he was able to assemble here. He was able to grab $36 of surplus value when compared to the AAV which is completely absurd. The pitching staff is a work of art, with five pseudo aces to lead the staff plus George Kirby waiting in the wings. The only thing he's missing is a second closer, and I hope for my sake that Yates doesn't steal the role in Los Angeles. The offense is very strong as well from top to bottom, with speed for days and plenty of power to go with it. This team should be in the mix at season's end for sure. Team 14 To put it gently, this team struggled badly with this draft. It's unclear if he was dealing with some sort of personal emergency or just wasn't prepared, but he left a whopping $64 on the table – 24.61% of his total budget. It's just impossible to compete when you're doing that. To make matters worse, he also overspent by $22 according to AAV, but some of that was having money to burn and no one good enough to spend it on. The pitching staff has some upside and if Strider can give him five healthy months, there's a chance that he can make it work. I'm not sure how the offense survives though. The outlook there is very bleak. There's nowhere close to enough speed, the power is light and there's a ton of batting average risk as well. I'd be shocked if this team didn't finish in the bottom third of the league. Team 15 Team 15 is another squad that assembled a very strong unit on the offensive side of the ball. The power, batting average and counting stats are definitely there. I do have some concerns over them getting to the necessary total in stolen bases. On the pitching side, Zack Wheeler and Framber Valdez make for a very strong 1-2 punch at the top. There's not a whole lot behind them though. I think the rotation will end up being a major concern. He also has just one solid closer with the hope that maybe Chad Green sees the save chances with the Blue Jays. This team feels like it should be somewhere in the middle of the pack. Here's an overall breakdown of the spend and the hitting/pitching split for each team in the draft. I've also included the surplus value or deficit that each had against ADP and showed the ridiculous amount of money that was ultimately left on the table in this draft. CONCLUSION: While I felt awful about contributing my $4 excess dollars to that total, it's hard to justify what Team 1 and Team 14 kept in their pockets. Both teams will have a very hard time digging out of the hole that they put themselves in after the draft. I feel like the team that I assembled here is good enough to compete. My strategy is to plan out my draft beforehand and attempt to execute that plan. That's very different than a drafter like Team 13 who attacks the draft with patience and takes the values that the draft gives them. That's why he ended up with such a large surplus value against ADP and I had a small deficit. My guys are huge bargains based on my valuations, just not by AAV – which is why I targeted those particular players. In the end, we'll find out which strategy was the best when we see the standings at the end of the season. Thanks for following along. Hopefully you can take some insight from here into your own salary cap drafts over the next few weeks as we creep closer to Opening Day.
New York Times
13-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball closer tiers for the Top 50 relievers, plus seven sleepers to know
Context can be as crucial as the rote number when placing closers into tiered rankings. Relying on a rank creates potential disappointment and criticism. However, it's part of the valuation process leading up to fantasy baseball drafts. After much thought and consternation, I've put together my Top 50 closer rankings for 2025, with some caveats. Here are some baseline numbers using 12-team league trends for setting saves targets. In the NFBC overall championship, these are the 80th- and 90th-percentile save totals since 2021: Beginning your draft preparations with a target of 70 or more saves should ensure success in the category. There will be changes throughout the season, which makes some wary of paying for saves, but from NFBC leagues, here are the trends in saves among the top-25 finishers in this same timeframe: Last year represented a shift toward accruing more saves. There is more than one way to win a league, but punting saves was not among them in this format. Now for my tiers, with context: 1. Josh Hader (HOU) 2. Mason Miller (ATH) 3. Emmanuel Clase (CLE) Two of the five qualified relievers with over 100 strikeouts lead the way in my updated rankings. Clase has been such a stabilizing force among closers, but can he record more than 70 innings and 40 saves in a fourth straight season? If yes, he will make history. Advertisement 4. Edwin Díaz (NYM) 5. Ryan Helsley (STL) 6. Devin Williams (NYY) 7. Raisel Iglesias (ATL) There is a chance Díaz could be pitching for a new contract since he can opt out at the end of the season. Unless he receives an extension, Helsley will be moved before this year's trade deadline but was last year's breakout among his peers. Williams will bring his vaunted 'Airbender' to the Bronx and gets to keep his beard. But will his back hold up? Iglesias also features a plus changeup and will be a free agent at the end of 2025. 8. Jhoan Duran (MIN) 9. Andrés Muñoz (SEA) 10. Ryan Walker (SF) 11. Jeff Hoffman (TOR) This tier features less stability but teems with upside. Duran's velocity remains a hot topic, but if he's throwing above 101 miles per hour, his stuff remains elite. With Muñoz, it's always about health. He's tinkering with a 'kick-change,' which may provide more whiffs this year. Walker took over as the closer for the Giants during the second half of last year, and he enters 2025 in the role. The only worry is that his manager misses using him as the highest-leveraged reliever (HLR). Hoffman signed a three-year contract with the Blue Jays to take over the ninth inning. Do not overthink this. 12. Tanner Scott (LAD) 13. Félix Bautista (BAL) Here are two more elite strikeout relievers who are a bit further down but could finish higher if their save totals net out at or above 30. However, this is not assured. Scott will receive the 'brunt' of save chances with the Dodgers. His projected total could increase if he takes on a larger save share. Bautista's returning from Tommy John surgery, and the team has said his workload will be monitored closely early this season. Once the training wheels come off and his split-finger fastball finds its form, 'The Mountain' will be a tremendous fantasy asset, though fantasy managers must remain patient. Advertisement 14. David Bednar (PIT) 15. Jordan Romano (PHI) 16. Ryan Pressly (CHC) 17. Kenley Jansen (LAA) Welcome to the unsexy veteran tier of closers. Not only does this tier feature 'Dad' bods, but it comes with some inherent risk. Bednar lost the closer role in the second half and has not been named his team's closer as of this writing. However, he's one year removed from tying for the NL lead in saves. Soft tissue injuries (oblique) have not been his friend, but with health, he could be a steak at his current price point. Romano likely fills the vacated preferred save share role filled by Craig Kimbrel in 2023 for the Phillies. Fantasy managers cannot forget about Rob Thomson's 'floating closer' philosophy, which keeps Romano's save ceiling from possibly reaching its full potential. Pressly waived his no-trade clause for a chance at closing again with the Cubs. Many prefer Porter Hodge, but the all-time postseason saves leader for the Astros should do well pitching for a contract. Jansen has his eyes set on moving up the all-time saves list, and he will get his chance with the Angels. Just note his innings totals and save totals from the previous two seasons — you should not be disappointed. Sometimes, slow and steady wins the race. 18. Carlos Estévez (KC) 19. Trevor Megill (MIL) 20. Robert Suarez (SD) 21. Pete Fairbanks (TB) We've entered the tiers of uncertainty. Estévez signed a contract that pays him like the team's closer, but his team said roles would be fluid during leverage innings. I'm still taking him for 22-25 saves, but he must perform well in those opportunities. Megill led the Brewers in saves last year but has also never thrown more than 50 MLB innings in a season. His second-half dip in K-BB and whiff rate were associated with a back issue, but if this lingers, he may not be closing by July. The same goes for Suarez, who recorded 36 saves last season but had half-season split issues, pointing toward either fatigue or the league adjusting: 22. Justin Martinez (ARI) 23. A.J. Puk (ARI) 24. Kyle Finnegan (WSH) 25. Alexis Díaz (CIN) 26. Chris Martin (TEX) Advertisement Currently in a camp battle for the closer role in Arizona, Martinez or Puk could be a sneaky pick at their current cost in draft capital, but they could also be busts if they are not securing saves. Worse, Kevin Ginkel could be a dark horse in this contest. Finnegan may not record 95 percent of his team's saves this year, but with some migration toward the mean and better command of his four-seam fastball, he may be a stable option in a build — just be sure to monitor your ratios. Alexis Díaz may not mesh well with Terry Francona, given his propensity for issuing free passes. Martin has always been 'the guy behind the guy,' with 14 career saves in 369 appearances, but he opens the year as the Rangers' penciled-in closer. Age and workload may necessitate changes in this role as the year progresses. 27. Mike Clevinger (CHW) 28. Liam Hendriks (BOS) 29. Aroldis Chapman (BOS) 30. Seth Halvorsen/Victor Vodnik/Tyler Kinley (COL) 31. Beau Brieske (DET) 32. Calvin Faucher/Jesús Tinoco/Anthony Bender (MIA) Because most try to accrue saves rather than use relievers for ratio protection, this tier features the remaining four unresolved closer situations. Hendriks has been working with reduced velocity this spring (though he has touched 96 miles per hour), and his contact rate allowed represents some risk. He has pedigree, but can he be the Red Sox closer with less velocity and more guts and guile? Chapman has struggled with walks this spring, and despite his strong second half last year, he has not posted a walk percentage below 15 since 2021. While the Rockies try to determine their closer, it has been reported the team prefers one of its younger flamethrowers. That said, Kinley has had the best spring results. Stay tuned. Predicting who gets the next save for Detroit can be challenging enough daily, but Brieske broke out in September and was the preferred leverage option with Will Vest in the postseason. It may not matter who wins the closer role for the Marlins, but Bender remains a sleeper among the listed triumvirate. This may seem bizarre, but Clevinger, the preferred save option for the White Sox, may work out. 33. Griffin Jax (MIN) 34. Cade Smith (CLE) 35. Edwin Uceta (TB) 36. Jason Adam (SD) 37. Bryan Abreu (HOU) 38. Lucas Erceg (KC) 39. José Alvarado (PHI) 40. Luke Weaver (NYY) Relievers within this group could zoom up the rankings if they become the closer at some point in 2025. Jax, Uctea, Erceg, Alvarado and Weaver will get ancillary saves, which enhances their fantasy appeal. If anything happens in their leverage ladders, Abreu, Smith and Adam are potential closer replacements. 41. Justin Slaten (BOS) 42. Tyler Holton (DET) 43. Orion Kerkering (PHI) 44. Kevin Ginkel (ARI) 45. Ben Joyce (LAA) 46. Jeremiah Estrada (SD) 47. Camilo Doval (SF) 48. Robert Garcia (TEX) 49. Kirby Yates/Blake Treinen (LAD) 50. Yennier Cano (BAL) Advertisement Here are more potential replacement relievers for saves if the opportunity presents itself, along with a couple still in the mix for the closer role with opening day on the horizon. If either Hendriks or Chapman does not emerge as the closer in Boston, keep tabs on Slaten. I have included projections for saves, holds, and SOLDS for The Athletic readers only. They do not have rankings attached — SGP does this based on the numbers, though they do not align with our tiers above. Use this link: Jewett's projected Saves, Holds, and SOLDS Greg Jewett: Closer expert for The Athletic; Owner of Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey Statistical Credits: Steamer projections of on Fangraphs; ZiPS DC courtesy of Dan Szymborski; OOPSY Projections courtesy of Jordan Rosenblum (Top photo of Devin Williams: Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images)
New York Times
10-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Players like Mookie Betts add roster flexibility and impact draft strategy in fantasy baseball
In every fantasy baseball draft, there are points where managers have tough decisions to make. In snake drafts, two similarly ranked players may be calling to you. In a salary cap auction, managers need to know when to bid an extra dollar or two and when to stop. Upside, consistency, durability, positional need and statistical versatility are important player profile components to consider when faced with a hard choice. Flexible positional eligibility can be a surefire tiebreaker during a snake draft or when deciding whether to bid higher on a player in auction formats. Advertisement Multi-position eligibility elevates the fantasy appeal of a draft target. It gives you maneuverability throughout the draft when looking to fill various positions. During the season, you will have more roster pliability when dealing with injuries, and players who can slide in and out of different lineup slots become additionally valuable in daily lineup formats. I'm looking comprehensively at position eligibility factors for the 2025 season, including positional depth and prime draft targets. My analysis is mainly based on standard 5×5 Roto leagues. This will be the first installment in a two-part series where I focus on positional depth, site requirements and guidelines and share top players to highlight on fantasy spreadsheets. Below, I've ranked offensive positions for fantasy baseball depth as a first step to determining where multi-position players can be most valuable. Before diving into specific site platform qualifiers, positions are ranked from weakest to strongest overall. This is always the thinnest position in fantasy baseball, especially in tougher leagues where two players must be started at catcher. There aren't too many guys who will give you ample production at more than one position, including catcher, yet I am interested in stashing David Fry until he returns to full health. Following catcher, second base must be considered regarding position scarcity. In NFBC leagues, only six second basemen are being drafted in the top 100. Jordan Westburg, who can also play third base, and Matt McLain, with additional shortstop eligibility, are being drafted around pick 90. Somewhat comparable to first base, there is a fall-off after the top 5 at third, which ends with Manny Machado. Still, you can get an adequate option through the top 12. Jazz Chisholm Jr. gives you usefulness at third base and the outfield — more on him below. As you get deeper into the position, many players also qualify at second base, providing additional flexibility at the middle and corner infielder spots. Advertisement According to the most recent NFBC ADPs, almost 10 first basemen are being drafted in the top 100. Good power is available in the position's top 12 or so spots. Depending on the platform, some viable dual-position finds are available, such as Cody Bellinger, who can also play the outfield, and Jake Burger, a qualifier at third base. Shortstop is loaded with good depth at the top, as six of the best shortstops are being drafted in the top 25 in NFBC leagues. A total of 11 shortstops are being taken in the top 100. Mookie Betts, the ultimate dual-position acquisition, has an ADP of 11.2 overall. Oneil Cruz offers SS/OF versatility at 39.6. This is naturally the deepest offensive position in fantasy baseball because of pure volume, but it must be viewed uniquely because while three outfielders start for every MLB team, many fantasy baseball teams require five OF spots. Outfielders fly off the board fast, as the top 24 are gone in the top 100 in current NFBC drafts. Only approximately five of them have any sort of multi-positional eligibility. How deep this position is on the surface is sort of an optical illusion. Where players qualify depends on the platform or custom settings put in place by a league manager. Here are some of the basic hitter guidelines by site, with default rules spotlighted. On Yahoo Sports, information from previous seasons and MLB rosters are used for preseason determinations, and a player must make five starts or 10 total appearances to qualify at a position. On ESPN, players must have logged 20 games or 25 percent of their games played at a position in a previous season. Once a player has 10 games at a position in-season, he can qualify at a new position. In leagues, hitters must have played 20 games at a position last year or will play five there during the upcoming season. On Fantrax, hitters require 20 games played at a position from the previous year or 10 during the current season. The NFBC has similar requirements as Fantrax. Advertisement Considering the aforementioned depth by position, these are some of my favorite multi-position players to target in 2025 drafts. The ones not featured here will appear in the following article of this two-part series: Mookie Betts (NFBC ADP of 11.22) SS/OF/2B (Yahoo): Betts is the top multi-positional superstar available and is even more valuable in Yahoo leagues. Betts qualifies in all other formats at SS and OF, yet his 18 games played at 2B in 2024 boost his appeal on that site even more. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (23.5) OF/3B/2B (pending): He can be drafted as a top-three third baseman, but the major added appeal of Chisholm is that he is going to return to second base in 2025, which will give him unique eligibility at three positions on all platforms. If he can play close to a full season, Chisholm will be an ideal multi-eligibility and multi-statistical standout. Oneil Cruz (39.6) SS/OF: With 23 games played in the OF last year, Cruz barely cracked eligibility there, yet now he is set to play outfield full-time. There is a definite 30/30 promise for 2025 here, and while Cruz is being drafted as a top 15 OF, he goes off the board as a No. 7 SS. Jordan Westburg (85.0) 3B/2B: After his breakthrough campaign with Baltimore last year, Westburg is being drafted as a top 4 fantasy second baseman and has the extra 3B qualification. You can get 20 homers and 10 steals if you're concerned about the thinner nature of 2B availability. Matt McLain (91.6) SS/2B: He missed last season and has yet to play a full schedule in the majors. McLain, however, carries a lot of potential for power and speed in a favorable home park, and we could see a 20/20 season from him as a projected top-5 to top-10 second baseman. Cody Bellinger (102.88) OF/1B): If I don't land one of the top 5 players at 1B, I will be satisfied with Bellinger as a top-10 option. He is being drafted as the 25th OF in NFBC leagues. He should be a solid pick for 25-plus home runs in Yankee Stadium, with the opportunity to be a featured performer in a retooled lineup. Advertisement Jake Burger (112.4) 1B/3B: I will take dual eligibility with 30-plus HR power here as long as batting average can be recouped elsewhere. Moving away from Miami into a better hitting environment in Texas can only help Burger's outlook. If you miss out on Pete Alonso and his possible 35-plus HRs earlier, getting Burger and a few less HRs is a decent alternative. Luis Rengifo (151.6) 2B/3B: Keep an eye on Rengifo's preseason hamstring injury, but if he logs close to a full season's worth of games, you can get a respectable batting average along with 15 homers and 15 stolen bases. Rengifo is an adequate complementary infield pickup. Luis Arraez (175.8) 1B/2B: Arraez is just a one-category hitter. Get him later and slide him into the middle or corner infield. He may be more valuable at 2B due to the scarcity there. Next: Site-specific standouts, sleepers and players who will gain or lose eligibility in 2025. (Photo of Mookie Betts: Brandon Sloter / Getty Images)
New York Times
04-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
The most overvalued fantasy baseball players, including Freddie Freeman, James Wood and more
I gave you the good news first in my column on undervalued players. Now it's time for the bad news — the players who do not deserve their ADP, according to NFBC drafts the past two weeks. I am showing my work here, and you can agree or disagree. I'm not just mindlessly saying, 'The vibes on this player are good.' Advertisement How is Rutschman a clean player at this point? If he was punished in ADP, I might be in (It's never the player; it's always the price). Rutschman, off a disastrous second half with enormous trouble hitting when catching (vs. DH) and horrible platoon splits, somehow has the same overall ADP as in 2024. He was exactly league-average in overall Statcast expected hitting. The walks collapsed. His K% increased (yes, it's still good). Could he be worth a pick at the Round 2/3 turn? Absolutely. But even Hall of Fame first basemen often struggle at age 35. Dick Allen, Carl Yastrzemski (played first base at that age), Todd Helton, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Tony Pérez, Eddie Murray … all were significantly worse by then. At age 34, Freeman struggled in bat speed, exit velocity, and expected ISO (slugging minus average). There is virtually no chance he outperforms ADP. I generally pass on those players in this area of the draft unless there is a super high floor. And no one has a high floor at age 35. How? Why? Where is Albies guaranteed to help you? Maybe he hits sixth. Maybe he hits eighth. Look at all this blue ink on his Statcast page. I need to believe I'm moving the needle in multiple places with my top seven hitters, and Albies is going as a fifth-round pick. Yes, he hit 33 homers in 2023. But I project him as a 20-homer hitter. He has a little bit of speed. And I get that second base is weak this year, but you can just wait. Take Jeff McNeil with the last pick in your reserve round, and you have a similar hitter. I typically do not care about off-the-field stuff, but Abrams being suspended for conduct detrimental to the team so late in 2024 was super weird. I don't draft 'super weird' when it has this kind of sticker price. If Abrams had been great last year, maybe I'd forgive or forget. But from July 1 on, he had a .610 OPS in 63 games (.199 average). He did steal 17 bases in this span, with seven homers, but he's likely to have an OPS in the high .600s to low .700s like he's had his entire career beyond the first few months of 2024. What are we buying here? The speed isn't worth this much. Advertisement Oddly, I wouldn't push back on the ADP of a single third baseman in the top 100. So, jump into the queue fearlessly. I admit to having a bias against super tall hitters (they have long swings, generally). When they prove that's not an issue, I look at the positive traits with height, which is leverage/power. But Wood is an extreme ground-ball hitter. His average launch angle was two degrees (about one-sixth the average). He really struggled hitting breaking stuff. He's a very fast but very inefficient base-stealer. Again, Wood is a top prospect. There's a lot to like here. But I'll be surprised if he's a first-round pick next year, and I have to believe there's a good chance of that happening to draft him this high, even at age 22. Sale is 35, and it's hard for me to pay so much more for him now than last year (83rd overall). He finished 2024 with a back injury, and his fastball topped out at 95 mph in his first spring start (vs. 97.1 in 2024). He's a year older now. He's pitched 634 innings the past seven years — he sat out the pandemic season. There's less upside, given he's a year older, and more injury risk in light of all the wear-and-tear he added in 2024. Bottom line: Sale can't get me off my strategy of avoiding starting pitchers for the first five rounds. I don't care about his postseason struggles (again). He's a great pitcher in real life, but I need a ton of surplus Ks from my closer. You want 25-27% Ks from your staff, and here's Clase occupying a roster spot and falling short of that. I need my closers to be at 30% or above. In 70 innings, Clase is striking out 65, and you want 80+ out of that spot. So, you're down roughly 20 Ks, and you have to compensate with starters, which is expensive. Ks for closers are way cheaper and often even free. Edwin Diaz could get 40 more Ks than Clase, and no one would find it remarkable; however, it's of massive category value. (Top photo of Freddie Freeman: Joe Camporeale / Imagn Images)
