Ukraine fires, Russia retaliates, but diplomacy remains on the table: Where is Europe's largest conflict of the century heading?
'Russia has been stepping up its barrages in recent months,' pushing to exhaust Ukraine's air defenses amid stalling peace talks, New York Times reported shortly after Ukrainian forces reported the attack.
This escalation followed Ukraine's 'Operation Spider Web' on June 1, when Ukrainian drones targeted four Russian air bases simultaneously.
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Kyiv claims up to 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed, including around 34% of its cruise missile carriers, according to Ukraine's SBU intelligence. NATO confirmed that 'over 40 aircraft were damaged, 10 to 13 ... completely destroyed' . Moscow disputes those numbers.
Despite these military blows, diplomatic channels have mildly advanced. Following Istanbul talks on June 2, Ukraine and Russia agreed on a phased exchange of POWs – at least 1,200 on each side – and the return of war dead .
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Kyiv says the broader ceasefire discussions have 'sputtered,' with little progress beyond this humanitarian deal .
Covert operations deep within Russia
While ceasefire talks stagger on, Ukraine has launched a shadow war inside Russia, targeting critical infrastructure and key officials, according to a report by DW.
In the latest, a series of explosions on Russian rail lines in Belgorod and Voronezh prompted terrorism investigations. Authorities say no one was injured, but the sabotage strikes mirror earlier actions including train derailments and attacks on bridges in Bryansk and Kursk on June 1 — incidents blamed on Ukrainian intelligence .
Elsewhere, Ukraine has hit the Crimean Bridge, a strategic and symbolic Russian supply route. DW notes that Kyiv's SBU in June 2025 'placed underwater mines on pillars of the Crimean bridge and detonated them from a distance.' Though Russia denies serious damage, the strike briefly halted bridge traffic.
Ukraine's drones have also extended their reach into military and civilian targets.
Meanwhile, DW highlighted the assassination of high‑ranking Russian officers: Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov was killed in December 2024, and deputy missile designer Mikhail Shatsky, who was shot earlier this year .
On the other hand, Russian aerial attacks increasingly reach beyond military objectives, hitting hospitals and other civilian infrastructure.
According to The New York Times, 'Russia has been setting deadly records with the swarms of drones and missiles … often hitting civilian targets in towns and cities across the country' .
Europe mobilizes: Could NATO face another war?
What began as Vladimir Putin's bid to block Ukraine from joining NATO in 2022 has grown into a conflict reverberating across Europe—and now threatens the continent itself. Analysts and leaders are asking: Is Europe ready if war returns to NATO's frontiers?
Europe has responded with sweeping defense measures. ABC News Australia reports that Poland plans military training for every adult male, aiming to expand its armed forces to 500,000. Norway has reinstated bomb shelter mandates for new buildings. Germany has unlocked billions to boost defense capacity. Additionally, along the eastern NATO border, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have withdrawn from the Ottawa landmine ban in order 'to give their troops flexibility and freedom of choice to defend NATO's eastern flank' .
These actions follow warnings from Danish and German intelligence that a Russian attack could materialize 'in as little as five years.' Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told ABC, 'It cannot be ruled out that within a three‑ to five‑year period, Russia will test Article 5 and NATO's solidarity' .
Jakub Janda, Centre for Security Policy, Prague, summed it up starkly: 'If there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, time will start running out as Russia will be preparing for its campaign against NATO on a full scale' .
Yet severe challenges lie ahead. Stephan Fruehling, from Australia's ANU, warns Europe still lacks sufficient manpower: 'Europe just doesn't have the forces that you need to hold front lines,' while Russian forces still number over 1.5 million active troops .
The prospect of nuclear deterrence is also in flux. While NATO continues to rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, some European nations are exploring greater strategic autonomy—looking toward France and Britain. However, their combined nuclear arsenals 'hardly compares to Russia and the U.S.,' making prospects for a European nuclear deterrent uncertain .
Russia-Ukraine war: What world leaders say
With battlefield momentum swinging between escalation and sabotage operations, world leaders are voicing increasing concern.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy says the POW exchange marks a rare diplomatic success: 'We count on the full implementation of the humanitarian agreements ... We are doing everything possible to bring back every single person' .
The Trump administration maintains pressure for a ceasefire, though The New York Times observes Moscow is ignoring it: 'Efforts by the Trump administration to cajole both sides toward a ceasefire … sputtered' .
European defense officials are unanimous: Italy, Baltic states, and Germany are investing heavily in military readiness. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed summit talks on raising defense spending 'north of 3% of GDP' .
Analysts suggest the next 12 months may prove decisive. Europe is arming and training; Ukraine is striking back; Russia is targeting civilian infrastructure with impunity.
Stephan Fruehling puts it plainly: 'The good times were over in Western Europe' after Ukraine's full-scale invasion .
Now, with European nations awakening to a grim new reality, the question remains: Will deterrence hold—or is Europe already in its next war?
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Business Standard
15 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Putin doubts potency of Trump's ultimatum to end the war: Report
Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to bow to a sanctions ultimatum expiring this Friday from U.S. President Donald Trump, and retains the goal of capturing four regions of Ukraine in their entirety, sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters. Trump has threatened to hit Russia with new sanctions and impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy its oil - of which the biggest are China and India - unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire in Russia's war in Ukraine. Putin's determination to keep going is prompted by his belief that Russia is winning and by scepticism that yet more U.S. sanctions will have much of an impact after successive waves of economic penalties during 3-1/2 years of war, according to three sources familiar with discussions in the Kremlin. The Russian leader does not want to anger Trump, and he realises that he may be spurning a chance to improve relations with Washington and the West, but his war goals take precedence, two of the sources said. Putin's goal is to fully capture the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Russia has claimed as its own, and then to talk about a peace agreement, one of the sources said. "If Putin were able to fully occupy those four regions which he has claimed for Russia he could claim that his war in Ukraine had reached his objectives," said James Rodgers, author of the forthcoming book "The Return of Russia". The current talks process, in which Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have met three times since May, was an attempt by Moscow to convince Trump that Putin was not rejecting peace, the first source said, adding that the talks were devoid of real substance apart from discussions on humanitarian exchanges. Russia says it is serious about agreeing a long-term peace in the negotiations but that the process is complicated because the two sides' stances are so far apart. Putin last week described the talks as positive. Moscow's stated demands include a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions and acceptance by Kyiv of neutral status and limits on the size of its military' demands rejected by Ukraine. In a sign that there may yet be an opportunity to strike a deal before the deadline, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Russia this week, following an escalation in rhetoric between Trump and Moscow over risks of nuclear war. On Monday, Russia said it was no longer bound by a moratorium on short- and medium-range nuclear missiles. The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment for this story. All the sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. Trump, who in the past has praised Putin and held out the prospect of lucrative business deals between their two countries, has lately expressed growing impatience with the Russian president. He has complained about what he called Putin's "bullshit" and described Russia's relentless bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities as "disgusting". The Kremlin has said it noted Trump's statements but it has declined to respond to them. Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko last week called on the world to respond with "maximum pressure" after the worst Russian air strike of the year killed 31 people in Kyiv, including five children, in what she called Russia's response to Trump's deadline. "President Trump wants to stop the killing, which is why he is selling American-made weapons to NATO members and threatening Putin with biting tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in response to a request for comment. FORCES ADVANCE The first source said Putin was privately concerned about the recent deterioration of U.S. ties. Putin still retains the hope that Russia can again befriend America and trade with the West, and "he is worried" about Trump's irritation, this person said. But with Moscow's forces advancing on the battlefield and Ukraine under heavy military pressure, Putin does not believe now is the time to end the war, the source said, adding that neither the Russian people nor the army would understand if he stops now. Rodgers, the author, said Putin has invested his political reputation and legacy in the war in Ukraine. "We know from his previous writings and statements that he sees himself as part of a strong tradition of standing up to the West and the rest of world to defend Russia's interests," he said. The Kremlin leader values the relationship with Trump and does not want to anger him, however, "he simply has a top priority - Putin cannot afford to end the war just because Trump wants it," the second Russian source said. A third person familiar with Kremlin thinking also said Russia wanted to take all four regions and did not see the logic in stopping at a time of battlefield gains during Russia's summer offensive. Ukraine has suffered some of its biggest territorial losses of 2025 in the past three months, including 502 square kilometres in July, according to Black Bird Group, a Finland-based military analysis centre. In total, Russia has occupied around a fifth of Ukraine. Russia's military General Staff has told Putin that the Ukrainian front will crumble in two or three months, the first person said. However, Russia’s recent gains remain relatively minor in purely territorial terms, with only 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 square miles) of Ukraine taken since the start of last year, less than 1% of the country's overall territory, according to a June report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. Ukrainian and Western military sources, acknowledge that Russia is making gains, but only gradually and with heavy casualties. Russian war bloggers say Moscow's forces have been bogged down during its current summer offensive in areas where the terrain and dense urban landscape favoured Ukraine, but assess that other areas should be faster to take. 'HE'S MADE THREATS BEFORE' Trump's sanctions threat was "painful and unpleasant," but not a catastrophe, the second source said. The third source said there was a feeling in Moscow that "there's not much more that they can do to us". It was also not clear if Trump would follow through on his ultimatum, this person said, adding that "he's made threats before" and then not acted, or changed his mind. The source also said it was hard to imagine that China would stop buying Russian oil on instructions from Trump, and that his actions risked backfiring by driving oil prices higher. As a consequence of previous rounds of sanctions, Russian oil and gas exporters have taken big hits to their revenues, and foreign direct investment in the country fell by 63% last year, according to U.N. trade data. Around $300 billion of central bank assets have been frozen in foreign jurisdictions. But Russia's ability to wage war has been unimpeded, thanks in part to ammunition supplies from North Korea and imports from China of dual-use components that have sustained a massive rise in weapons production. The Kremlin has repeatedly said that Russia has some "immunity" to sanctions. Trump has acknowledged Russia's skill in skirting the measures. "They're wily characters and they're pretty good at avoiding sanctions, so we'll see what happens," he told reporters at the weekend, when asked what his response would be if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire. The first Russian source noted that Putin, in pursuing the conflict, was turning his back on a U.S. offer made in March that Washington, in return for his agreement to a full ceasefire, would remove U.S. sanctions, recognise Russian possession of Crimea - annexed from Ukraine in 2014 - and acknowledge de facto Russian control of the territory captured by its forces since 2022. The source called the offer a "fantastic chance," but said stopping a war was much more difficult than starting it.
The Wire
an hour ago
- The Wire
Trump Considering Hiking 25% Tariff on India ‘Very Substantially' in Next 24 Hours
He also said that New Delhi's ostensible offer to lower its tariffs to zero is 'not good enough' if it keeps buying Russian oil. New Delhi: US President Donald Trump has reiterated his intention to levy a tariff on Indian goods 'very substantially' higher than the 25% he announced last week, repeating his stance that he is unhappy with India's purchases of Russian oil even as Moscow continues its war with Ukraine. In an interview to CNBC Television on Tuesday (August 5), Trump also claimed that while New Delhi has agreed to charge 'zero tariffs' on American goods, its offer is 'not good enough' as long as it continues to buy oil from Russia. A day prior, Trump had said he would 'substantially raise' his 25% tariff on India – scheduled to go into effect on Thursday – because it was 'not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil' but selling much of this 'on the Open Market for big profits', drawing a rejoinder from the Ministry of External Affairs , which pointed to Washington as well as the EU's continuing economic links with Moscow. Speaking to CNBC, Trump said on Tuesday that he was considering raising his 25% tariff on India 'very substantially over the next 24 hours' because of its purchases of Russian oil. 'So we settled on 25%, but I think I'm gonna raise that very substantially over the next 24 hours, because they're buying Russian oil, they're fuelling the war machine. And if they're going to do that, then I'm not going to be very happy,' he told the channel. Adding that India's tariffs on the US were too high, the president continued: 'Now I will say this. India went from the highest tariffs ever–they will give us zero tariffs … But that's not good enough, because of what they're doing with oil.' Trump on July 30 announced that India would pay a 25% tariff as well as a yet-undisclosed 'penalty' for buying energy and military equipment from Russia. This levy was to kick off two days later, but the executive order Trump signed deferred the date of its implementation to August 7. In a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, Trump blamed India for not caring 'how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine', adding that because of its dealings with Moscow he would be 'substantially raising the tariff paid by India to the USA'. New Delhi, which had stuck to its cautious approach to the issue when Trump announced the tariff and also went on to call India's economy 'dead', responded by accusing Washington and Brussels of 'targeting' India in an 'unjustified and unreasonable' manner. Charging the US with 'actively encouraging' its imports of Russian oil shortly after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the Ministry of External Affairs pointed to the US as well as the EU's continuing trade with Russia in various sectors after the latter's invasion began. 'In this background, the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security,' it said in a statement. Citing the US's trade deficit with India as well as the latter's high tariffs, Trump had unveiled a 26% 'reciprocal' tariff on India earlier this year but deferred it pending the completion of negotiations over a trade deal. Talks pursuant to that deal are ongoing but New Delhi's resistance to opening up its dairy and agricultural sector to America is reportedly a sticking point. There is no sign of a deal yet even as Trump has claimed on more than one occasion that India has agreed to lower its tariffs. Bilateral ties have also taken a hit amid Trump's repeated claims – consistently denied by India – that he mediated a ceasefire to the Indo-Pakistani military conflict in May by using trade with the two countries as leverage. The perception of a tilt towards Pakistan was reinforced when Trump hosted a luncheon for Pakistan's army chief , Field Marshal Asim Munir, and more recently taunted India after finalising a trade deal with Islamabad that includes the development of its 'massive' oil reserves. Meanwhile, India since 2022 has emerged as a top buyer of Russian crude oil – which has come under heavy sanctions from the US and its allies. Russia now accounts for nearly 40% of India's oil imports, while Delhi is currently Moscow's second-largest buyer after China. The tariffs have also cast a cloud over the two sides' burgeoning defence partnership. This article went live on August fifth, two thousand twenty five, at fifty-nine minutes past nine at night. The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.
Indian Express
an hour ago
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Zelenskyy speaks with Trump ahead of Putin ceasefire deadline
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that he had had a 'productive' conversation with his US counterpart Donald Trump on ending the war, sanctions on Russia and the finalisation of a US-Ukraine drone deal. Trump, who has signalled frustration with Vladimir Putin in recent weeks, has given the Russian president until August 8 to make peace in Ukraine or face tougher sanctions. 'President Trump is fully informed about Russian strikes on Kyiv and other cities and communities,' Zelenskyy wrote on X, referring to intensifying drone and missile attacks. Trump has threatened to hit Russia with new sanctions and impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy its oil, but sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters that Putin was unlikely to bow to the ultimatum. Zelenskyy said Ukraine was also ready to conclude a deal with the US on the purchase of Ukrainian drones that would amount to 'one of the strongest agreements'. He had earlier said the deal was worth around $30 billion. Ukraine is increasingly seeking financing and investment from its foreign partners to bolster its burgeoning domestic arms industry. Zelenskyy said Kyiv's European partners had so far pledged to buy more than $1 billion in US weapons for Ukraine as part of a new scheme.
