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Ukraine fires, Russia retaliates, but diplomacy remains on the table: Where is Europe's largest conflict of the century heading?
Russia launched nearly 500 drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight this week in "a string of record‑breaking aerial assaults".
'Russia has been stepping up its barrages in recent months,' pushing to exhaust Ukraine's air defenses amid stalling peace talks, New York Times reported shortly after Ukrainian forces reported the attack.
This escalation followed Ukraine's 'Operation Spider Web' on June 1, when Ukrainian drones targeted four Russian air bases simultaneously.
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Kyiv claims up to 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed, including around 34% of its cruise missile carriers, according to Ukraine's SBU intelligence. NATO confirmed that 'over 40 aircraft were damaged, 10 to 13 ... completely destroyed' . Moscow disputes those numbers.
Despite these military blows, diplomatic channels have mildly advanced. Following Istanbul talks on June 2, Ukraine and Russia agreed on a phased exchange of POWs – at least 1,200 on each side – and the return of war dead .
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Kyiv says the broader ceasefire discussions have 'sputtered,' with little progress beyond this humanitarian deal .
Covert operations deep within Russia
While ceasefire talks stagger on, Ukraine has launched a shadow war inside Russia, targeting critical infrastructure and key officials, according to a report by DW.
In the latest, a series of explosions on Russian rail lines in Belgorod and Voronezh prompted terrorism investigations. Authorities say no one was injured, but the sabotage strikes mirror earlier actions including train derailments and attacks on bridges in Bryansk and Kursk on June 1 — incidents blamed on Ukrainian intelligence .
Elsewhere, Ukraine has hit the Crimean Bridge, a strategic and symbolic Russian supply route. DW notes that Kyiv's SBU in June 2025 'placed underwater mines on pillars of the Crimean bridge and detonated them from a distance.' Though Russia denies serious damage, the strike briefly halted bridge traffic.
Ukraine's drones have also extended their reach into military and civilian targets.
Meanwhile, DW highlighted the assassination of high‑ranking Russian officers: Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov was killed in December 2024, and deputy missile designer Mikhail Shatsky, who was shot earlier this year .
On the other hand, Russian aerial attacks increasingly reach beyond military objectives, hitting hospitals and other civilian infrastructure.
According to The New York Times, 'Russia has been setting deadly records with the swarms of drones and missiles … often hitting civilian targets in towns and cities across the country' .
Europe mobilizes: Could NATO face another war?
What began as Vladimir Putin's bid to block Ukraine from joining NATO in 2022 has grown into a conflict reverberating across Europe—and now threatens the continent itself. Analysts and leaders are asking: Is Europe ready if war returns to NATO's frontiers?
Europe has responded with sweeping defense measures. ABC News Australia reports that Poland plans military training for every adult male, aiming to expand its armed forces to 500,000. Norway has reinstated bomb shelter mandates for new buildings. Germany has unlocked billions to boost defense capacity. Additionally, along the eastern NATO border, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have withdrawn from the Ottawa landmine ban in order 'to give their troops flexibility and freedom of choice to defend NATO's eastern flank' .
These actions follow warnings from Danish and German intelligence that a Russian attack could materialize 'in as little as five years.' Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told ABC, 'It cannot be ruled out that within a three‑ to five‑year period, Russia will test Article 5 and NATO's solidarity' .
Jakub Janda, Centre for Security Policy, Prague, summed it up starkly: 'If there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, time will start running out as Russia will be preparing for its campaign against NATO on a full scale' .
Yet severe challenges lie ahead. Stephan Fruehling, from Australia's ANU, warns Europe still lacks sufficient manpower: 'Europe just doesn't have the forces that you need to hold front lines,' while Russian forces still number over 1.5 million active troops .
The prospect of nuclear deterrence is also in flux. While NATO continues to rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, some European nations are exploring greater strategic autonomy—looking toward France and Britain. However, their combined nuclear arsenals 'hardly compares to Russia and the U.S.,' making prospects for a European nuclear deterrent uncertain .
Russia-Ukraine war: What world leaders say
With battlefield momentum swinging between escalation and sabotage operations, world leaders are voicing increasing concern.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy says the POW exchange marks a rare diplomatic success: 'We count on the full implementation of the humanitarian agreements ... We are doing everything possible to bring back every single person' .
The Trump administration maintains pressure for a ceasefire, though The New York Times observes Moscow is ignoring it: 'Efforts by the Trump administration to cajole both sides toward a ceasefire … sputtered' .
European defense officials are unanimous: Italy, Baltic states, and Germany are investing heavily in military readiness. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed summit talks on raising defense spending 'north of 3% of GDP' .
Analysts suggest the next 12 months may prove decisive. Europe is arming and training; Ukraine is striking back; Russia is targeting civilian infrastructure with impunity.
Stephan Fruehling puts it plainly: 'The good times were over in Western Europe' after Ukraine's full-scale invasion .
Now, with European nations awakening to a grim new reality, the question remains: Will deterrence hold—or is Europe already in its next war?
