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Tariff inflation worry, debt deluge to prop up longer-term US Treasury yields
By Sarupya Ganguly BENGALURU (Reuters) -Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields will rise modestly in coming months on tariff inflation worries and a deluge of new debt issuance even as short-term yields fall on renewed Federal Reserve rate cut bets, a Reuters survey of bond strategists showed. Both two-year and 10-year yields have fallen about 25 basis points since mid-July despite nearly half a trillion dollars of new Treasury securities expected to hit the market this quarter alone. The bulk of that yield decline followed big downward revisions to previous months' hiring data that led President Donald Trump to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. A September Fed rate reduction is now all but certain after a long pause, with nearly two more priced into interest rate futures by year-end following concerns about the strength of the job market as well as mounting worries over future political interference in Fed policy. "The market, as we've seen, has a tendency to take on board a downside surprise on growth and the labor market and run with additional expected cuts. We've been reluctant to take that on board. In fact, we've been pushing back on this," said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute. "This is a world where the Fed will have an easing bias, will want and have the intent to cut, but will be constrained in its ability to deliver that because the inflation piece of the puzzle will not be cooperating as much," Boivin added. Although many market participants view the surge in U.S. tariffs to their highest since the Great Depression as a temporary boost to inflation, many others are concerned this will prove more persistent at a time when it is already well above the Fed's 2% target. Consumer price index (CPI) data due on Tuesday are expected to show a further rise in July. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, currently 4.27%, will edge up to 4.30% in three months and trade around there at end-January and in a year, medians from nearly 50 bond strategists in an August 6-11 Reuters poll showed. Policy-rate sensitive 2-year Treasury yields were expected to drop about 15 bps to 3.60% in six months and then to 3.50% in a year, the poll showed. STEEPER CURVE That will further steepen the yield curve, widening the gap between those two yields from around 50 bps on Monday to 80 bps in a year. "General uncertainty around trade policy and fiscal concerns and its impact on Treasury issuance might keep longer-term yields, like the 10-year yield, a little bit more elevated," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Add all that together, we'll probably see a steeper yield curve." Large Treasury debt sales in coming quarters are expected to prevent long-term yields from falling much, even if inflation rises less than expected. That in part, is a reflection of the higher "term premium" - compensation for holding long-term debt. "Fiscal concerns could be more of an issue based on expectations for more and more Treasury issuance coming through the pipeline," said Martin. "And the more debt we issue, the more buyers we need to find. You might need to see yields stay a little bit elevated to attract that marginal buyer." Those concerns have been compounded by growing doubts over the central bank's independence, stoked by Trump's barrage of attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the credibility of official U.S. statistics. "We have been of the view long-term rates in the U.S. will be drifting are forces at play that will require greater compensation to take duration risk in U.S. Treasuries over time, and that's going to continue to become apparent to investors," added BlackRock's Boivin. Vishal Khanduja, head of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, agreed. "Mathematically, we don't have a deficit reduction plan in place, and that's why the market and us as investors are forcing the issue by expecting more yield...A steepening yield curve is the high-conviction structural bet in our portfolio at the moment," he said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
14 minutes ago
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The Trade Desk Crashes 39% in a Day as Amazon Looms Large
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) just got slammed with its worst trading day on recordtumbling over 39% at 11.29am todayafter a string of analyst downgrades reignited concerns that Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) ad tech machine is catching up fast. The shift followed disappointing results and guidance, which only sharpened focus on Amazon's growing role in the demand-side platform (DSP) market. MoffettNathanson's Michael Nathanson lowered his rating to sell and set a Street-low $45 price target, saying the Amazon shadow over this stock is now front and center... and harder to deny. The Trade Desk has now lost more than half its value year-to-date. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with TTD. At the heart of this re-rating is Amazon's strengthening DSP, which helps advertisers target users more preciselyparticularly across streaming platforms like Roku, where Amazon recently struck a notable advertising deal. Bank of America cut the stock two notches to underperform, citing growing structural pressure as rivals like Amazon and Alphabet continue to deliver strong ad revenue across their walled gardens. Wedbush and Citi also moved to the sidelines, noting that The Trade Desk's growth visibility has become increasingly difficult to defend, especially as the competitive backdrop shifts. CEO Jeff Green attempted to brush off Amazon during the earnings call, saying platforms like Amazon and Google are best suited to buy their own inventory with their own data, and that their bias makes them less effective across the open internet. But not everyone's buying it. Lightshed Partners' Rich Greenfield said those comments should scare any investor who owns The Trade Desk stock, arguing that Green may be downplaying the competitive reality. With analyst sentiment at its weakest in over two years, investors now face a tougher call: is this a temporary stumble, or the start of a more structural reset in The Trade Desk's positioning? This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Yahoo
14 minutes ago
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Cardio Partners acquires AED programme management company RescueStat
Cardio Partners, a Sarnova company, has acquired RescueStat, a company specialising in automated external defibrillator (AED) programme management and remote monitoring. This move is set to support Cardio Partners' objective to improve sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) survival rates and expand its life-saving solutions across more communities in the US. Cardio Partners president Lawrence Franchetti said: "Bringing RescueStat into the Cardio Partners family is a strategic move that deepens our capabilities and advances our shared mission. "Together, we are better equipped to empower customers with more choices, seamless solutions, and exceptional support in the fight against sudden cardiac arrest." RescueStat was founded by emergency room physicians and has 20 years of experience in AED programme oversight and smart monitoring solutions. The company's focus on providing responders with essential tools and training aligns closely with Cardio Partners' objectives. RescueStat CEO Carl Dixon said: "RescueStat was built on a mission to save lives through transformative technology and service that revolutionise SCA response. This milestone reflects the trust, grit, and growth mindset of our team, and I'm excited to accelerate our shared mission by joining forces with Cardio Partners." The purchase is expected to strengthen Cardio Partners' and Sarnova's long-term support for their partners and vendors while also creating new opportunities for collaborations. Customers are anticipated to benefit from an improved support infrastructure, expanded product portfolio, and increased reach. Simpson Thacher & Bartlett provided legal counsel for Cardio Partners while Perkins Coie and Hawley Troxell Ennis & Hawley advised RescueStat in the transaction. Cardio Partners delivers emergency preparedness solutions such as AEDs, repair services, and CPR training. "Cardio Partners acquires AED programme management company RescueStat" was originally created and published by Hospital Management, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
