It's been four years since a US president met Putin - and Trump will have a lot of ice to break
But why Alaska and why now?
A US-Russia summit in Alaska is geography as metaphor and message.
Alaska physically bridges both countries across the polar expanse.
Choosing this location signals strategic parity - the US and Russian leaders face to face in a place where their interests literally meet.
Alaska has surged in geopolitical importance due to its untapped fossil fuels.
Trump has aggressively pushed for more control in the Arctic, plans for Greenland and oil access.
Holding talks there centres the conversation where global energy and territorial stakes are high, and the US president thrives on spectacle.
A dramatic summit in the rugged frontier of Alaska plays into his flair for the theatrical.
It is brand Trump - a stage that frames him as bold, unorthodox and in command.
It was 2021 when a US president last came face-to-face with a Russian president.
The leaders of the two countries haven't met since Russia invaded Ukraine.
But Trump is in touch with all sides - Russia, Ukraine and European leaders - and says they all, including Putin, want "to see peace".
He's even talking up the potential shape of any deal and how it might involve the "swapping of territory".
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly insisted he will not concede territory annexed by Russia.
Moscow has sent the White House a list of demands in return for a ceasefire.
0:23
Trump is attempting to secure buy-in from Zelenskyy and other European leaders.
He styles himself as "peacemaker-in-chief" and claims credit for ending six wars since he returned to office 200 days ago.
There's much ice to break if he's to secure a coveted seventh one in Alaska.
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Reuters
12 minutes ago
- Reuters
Gold slips as investors focus on US-Russia talks on Ukraine
Aug 11 (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Monday as market participants focussed on U.S.-Russia talks on the war in Ukraine, and July inflation data that could offer more insight into the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Spot gold was down 0.6% at $3,378.49 per ounce, as of 0521 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 23 on Friday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery dropped 1.4% to $3,441.20. "Cooling geopolitical tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine saw gold fall further, following Friday's announcement that President Donald Trump will meet with Vladimir Putin on the U.S. soil," City Index senior analyst Matt Simpson said. Trump said on Friday he will meet Russian President Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Focus is also on U.S. consumer price data due on Tuesday, with analysts expecting the impact of tariffs to help nudge the core up 0.3% to an annual pace of 3.0% and away from the Fed's target of 2%. "A hot print could further strengthen the dollar and cap gains in gold, though I suspect support will remain in place overall as investors seek to scoop up discounts," Simpson said. Recent softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report boosted bets for a Fed rate cut in September. Markets imply around a 90% probability of a September easing, and at least one more cut by this year-end. Non-yielding gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment. Also on the radar are Sino-U.S. trade discussions as Trump's August 12 deadline for a deal between Washington and Beijing loomed. Meanwhile, COMEX gold speculators increased net long position by 18,965 contracts to 161,811 in the week to August 5. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.5% to $38.13 per ounce, platinum slipped 1.1% to $1,317.90 and palladium gained 0.1% to $1,127.37.
Reuters
14 minutes ago
- Reuters
Trump hopes China will quickly quadruple its US soybean orders
Aug 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he hoped China would quadruple its soybean orders from the U.S, adding that it was also "a way of substantially reducing" Beijing's trade deficit with Washington. "China is worried about its shortage of soybeans. Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China's Trade Deficit with the USA. Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President XI," Trump said on Truth Social. A tariff truce between Beijing and Washington is set to expire on August 12, but the Trump administration has hinted that the deadline may be extended. China, which takes more than 60% of soybeans shipped worldwide, buys the oilseed mainly from Brazil and the United States. The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 2.13% at $10.08 a bushel at 0446 GMT, having been little changed before Trump's post. China imported roughly 105 million metric tons of soybeans last year, just under a quarter coming from the U.S. and the remainder from Brazil. Quadrupling shipments would require China to import the bulk of its soybeans from the U.S. "It's highly unlikely that China would ever buy four times its usual volume of soybeans from the U.S.," Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting, said. It is unclear if securing China's agreement to buy more U.S. soybeans is a condition for extending the trade truce. China's Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The country has steadily reduced its reliance on U.S. soybeans in recent years, shifting more purchases to South America. Under the Phase One trade deal signed during Trump's first term, China agreed to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans. However, Beijing ultimately fell far short of meeting those targets. This year, amid Washington–Beijing trade tensions, it has yet to buy any fourth quarter U.S. beans, fuelling concerns as the U.S. harvest export season approaches. "On Beijing's side, there have been quite a few signals that China is prepared to forego U.S. soybeans altogether this year, including booking those test cargoes of soymeal from Argentina," said Even Rogers Pay, an agricultural analyst at Trivium China. Reuters previously reported that Chinese feedmakers have purchased three Argentine soymeal cargoes as they aim to secure cheaper South American supplies amid concerns about a possible soybean supply disruption in the fourth quarter. U.S. soybean industry has been seeking alternative buyers, but no other country matches China's scale. Last year, China imported 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the U.S., and 74.65 million tons from Brazil.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
The crude oil market bets Trump's India threats are hollow
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The crude oil market's rather sanguine reaction to the U.S. threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen. President Donald Trump cited India's imports of Russian crude when imposing an additional 25% tariff on imports from India on August 6, which is due to take effect on August 28. If the new tariff rate does come into place, it will take the rate for some Indian goods to as much as 50%, a level high enough to effectively end U.S. imports from India, which totalled nearly $87 billion in 2024. As with everything related to Trump, it pays to be cautious given his track record of backflips and pivots. It's also not exactly clear what Trump is ultimately seeking, although it does seem that in the short term he wants to increase his leverage with Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of their planned meeting in Alaska this week, and he's using India to achieve this. Whether Trump follows through on his additional tariffs on India remains uncertain, although the chances of a peace deal in Ukraine seem remote, which means the best path for India to avoid the tariffs would be to acquiesce and stop buying Russian oil. But this is an outcome that simply isn't being reflected in current crude oil prices. Global benchmark Brent futures have weakened since Trump's announcement of higher tariffs on India, dropping as low as $65.81 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday, the lowest level in two months. This is a price that entirely discounts any threat to global supplies, and assumes that India will either continue buying Russian crude at current volumes, or be able to easily source suitable replacements without tightening the global market. Are these reasonable assumptions? The track record of the crude oil market is somewhat remarkable in that it quickly adapts to new geopolitical realities and any price spikes tend to be shortlived. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent crude prices hurtling toward $150 a barrel as European and other Western countries pulled back from buying Russian crude. But within four months the price was back below where it was before Moscow's attack on its neighbour as the market simply re-routed the now discounted Russian oil to China and India. In other words, the flow of oil around the globe was shifted, but the volumes available for importers remained much the same. But what Trump is proposing now is somewhat different. It appears he wants to cut Russian barrels out of the market in order to put financial pressure on Moscow to cut a deal over Ukraine. There are effectively only two major buyers for Russian crude, India and China. China, the world's biggest crude importer, has more leverage with Trump given U.S. and Western reliance on its refined critical and other minerals, and therefore is less able to be coerced into ending its imports of Russian oil. India is in a less strong position, especially private refiners like Reliance Industries ( opens new tab, which will want to keep business relationships and access to Western economies. India imported about 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude in the first half of the year, or about 37% of its total, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. About 90% of its Russian imports came from Russia's European ports and was mainly Urals grade. This is a medium sour crude and it would raise challenges for Indian refiners if they sought to replace all their Urals imports with similar grades from other suppliers. There are some Middle Eastern grades of similar quality, such as Saudi Arabia's Arab Light and Iraq's Basrah Light, but it would likely boost prices if India were to seek more of these crudes. If Chinese refiners were able to take the bulk of Russian crude given up by India, it may allow for a re-shuffling of flows, but that would not appear to be what Trump wants. Trump and his advisers may believe there is enough spare crude production capacity in the United States and elsewhere to handle the loss of up to 2 million bpd of Russian supplies. But testing that theory may well lead to higher prices, especially for certain types of medium crudes which would be in short supply. It's simplistic to say that higher U.S. output can supply India's refiners, as this would mean those refiners would have to be willing to accept a different mix of refined products, including producing less diesel, as U.S. light crudes tend to make more products such as gasoline. For now the crude oil market is assuming that the Trump/India/Russia situation will end as another TACO, the acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out. But the reality is likely to be slightly more messy, as some Indian refiners pull back from importing from Russia, some Chinese refiners may buy more and once again the oil market goes on a geopolitical merry-go-round. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X, opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
