Why Lee Jae-myung is betting big on Arctic route

Korea Herald

27-05-2025

Lee's Arctic route vision aims to spur growth beyond capital and stake Korea's place in race for Arctic maritime dominance
With melting ice opening new Arctic shipping routes, Democratic Party frontrunner Lee Jae-myung urges South Korea to swiftly transform Busan into a strategic gateway for emerging Arctic maritime trade.
Lee has placed preparations for the year-round navigability of the Arctic route — made increasingly viable by global warming — at the heart of his campaign, a move seldom seen in South Korean presidential races.
Since launching his presidential campaign, Lee has spotlighted Arctic shipping in stump speeches in Ulsan, Busan and South Gyeongsang Province, and other key port locations — including Incheon and Dangjin — pitching it as a crucial path to reposition South Korea on the global maritime map.
Lee notably described the Arctic route issue as "of the utmost urgency and significance" during his meeting with Busan Mayor Park Hyung-joon this March.
Lee's Arctic route pledge is turning heads — but what's driving it?
Rather than treating the thawing Arctic as a remote or abstract issue, Lee presents it as a dual-purpose springboard on the campaign trail.
Lee sets out his vision for the Arctic route to secure a shorter, more reliable maritime shipping route than existing sea lanes in a bid to safeguard South Korea's national interests as a highly trade-oriented country amid intensifying competition in the Arctic region — primarily among the US, China and Russia.
Lee concurrently presents his goal to promote balanced regional growth beyond capital-centric development by making Busan the linchpin of the Arctic passage and fostering an industrial cluster in its vicinity.
A source with knowledge of the matter, speaking on condition of anonymity, said of Lee's manifesto on the Arctic route, "This is fundamentally about presenting a vision — a direction we aim to prepare for," with an awareness of the growing rivalry over Arctic routes.
"The Arctic presents both a range of possibilities and practical difficulties — it's a complex mix. Some countries are already moving proactively based on their national interests. China is one of them, and South Korea can be seen as moving in that direction as well," the source said.
Despite concerns over its economic feasibility and ecological consequences, Arctic shipping, in fact, offers a significantly shorter path between South Korea and Europe compared to traditional routes through the Indian or Pacific Oceans.
"This policy pledge is based on such a vision. If the Arctic route becomes a reality, the southern region of Korea, including Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province could play a central role — and that's what this pledge seeks to reflect," the source added.
Engine for southeast revival
On the home front, Lee has underscored the importance of the Arctic route as a cornerstone of his vision to transform the southeastern region, which includes the metropolitan cities of Busan and Ulsan, into Korea's maritime capital.
The region has traditionally been considered a stronghold for conservatives, but Lee and his rival conservative candidate Kim Moon-soo have been neck-and-neck in recent polls.
'Everyone, Busan is struggling — the economy is facing headwinds, the population is shrinking, and young people are leaving. Shouldn't we find an alternative? Today, I've brought one. The Arctic route is opening up,' Lee said during a stump speech in Busan on May 14.
The Northern Sea Route is gaining strategic attention as thinning ice sheets and longer navigation windows have enabled shipping vessels — particularly icebreakers — to begin using the route during the summer months.
Lee also cites projections that by the 2030s, the Arctic passage could become navigable year-round. Lee has repeatedly underscored that, compared to the traditional route via the Suez Canal, the Arctic shortcut to Europe can reduce travel distance by up to one-third and cut shipping time by around 10 days, offering major cost savings for maritime trade.
"By the 2030s, the Arctic route will become highly active. Can we start preparing only when that time comes? We need to prepare in advance. That includes related industries, infrastructure, education, and workforce development. These things cannot be done in just three or four years," Lee said during his outdoor campaign in Geoje on May 14.
"Japan and China are already making preparations. We should be doing the same — but we're falling behind," Lee added.
The Arctic route has been floated as the cornerstone of regional development, with the potential to create new demand for shipbuilding and other related industries.
'If shipyards in Geoje — equipped with global competitiveness in shipbuilding and plant construction — have business zones near them, the revival of the shipbuilding industry and the economic resurgence of the southeastern region can become a reality," Lee wrote in a Facebook post on March 21.
In his April 18 manifesto outlining plans for South Korea's maritime capital, Lee pledged to support the construction of specialized vessels for Arctic shipping lanes — including icebreakers essential for navigating frozen waters.
Lee also vowed to swiftly train experts such as polar maritime officers and to build tailored infrastructure — from optimizing navigation routes and securing logistics corridors to developing Arctic-specific business models — in order to fully harness the region's potential.
Lee has frequently underlined that South Korea should act now, repeatedly citing US President Donald Trump's ambition to take over Greenland to anchor American influence in the region.
"The US is saying things like, 'We'll buy Greenland — and if that doesn't work, we'll take it by force.' Why is that? Did they suddenly fall in love with Greenland? I believe it's because of the Arctic route," Lee said during his May 14 stump speech in Busan. "Control and influence over the Arctic passage is incredibly important."
Lee further explained that South Korea could boost its shipbuilding industry as maritime power competition intensifies in the Arctic, which requires a bigger naval fleet.
"But the problem is, America can't build ships anymore. Its shipbuilding industry is no longer functional,' Lee said in an interview released on the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation's YouTube channel in mid-April.
'South Korea is the global leader in shipbuilding. That makes this another important factor tied to the Arctic route issue. That's why (Trump) raised the issue of naval shipbuilding — and it's something we need to handle carefully. If we do, there are a lot of opportunities ahead for us."
On Lee's campaign trail, the Arctic route has been framed as a strategic alternative to increasingly volatile maritime flashpoints, including the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the Strait of Hormuz — as well as the Suez Canal, a vital chokepoint that has recently come under Houthi rebel attacks.
'More importantly, there's the risk in the Taiwan Strait and in the Strait of Hormuz. And if something goes wrong with navigation through the Suez Canal, that would be a serious problem. It could pose a national security risk,' Lee said during an interview dedicated to the Arctic route, uploaded to the official YouTube channel of the Democratic Party on May 14.
'That's why the Arctic route serves as both an alternative and a shorter, more efficient shipping lane."
Lee highlighted the emergence of a fully operational Arctic trade route as a reason to mend fences with Russia, which have frayed since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
"That's why we really need to manage our relationship with Russia well. If our ties with Russia remain antagonistic and Russia says, 'We won't do it with you (in Arctic route–related projects), we'll do it with Japan,' then we'll be the ones to suffer," Lee said.
Lee emphasized that careful management of diplomatic relations with both Washington and Moscow is essential if Seoul does not seek to risk settling for leftovers — merely watching from the sidelines instead of taking initiative in the era of the Arctic route.
"The Arctic route holds significant strategic value for both Russia and the US. Amid this intensifying great-power rivalry, it is imperative that we safeguard our national interests," Lee said. "This is precisely why diplomacy is of paramount importance."