
Pakistan secures $1.3b in climate financing from IMF
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director of Communications Julie Kozack said on Friday that Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion in climate financing.
Speaking at a press conference, Kozack highlighted that discussions with Pakistan covered both the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and climate financing, Express News reported.
Kozack further mentioned that Pakistan's 37-month EFF program, approved in September of the previous year, remains in place.
Earlier on Wednesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed the new $1.3 billion deal with the IMF during a Cabinet meeting in Islamabad.
Subject to approval by the IMF board, Pakistan will receive $1.3 billion under a new climate resilience loan program, which will span 28 months.
Additionally, a staff-level agreement will release $1 billion for Pakistan under the $7 billion bailout program that was agreed upon last year.
Nathan Porter, IMF mission chief to Pakistan, stated in a press release that the staff-level agreement covers both the first review of the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the new 28-month arrangement under the IMF's Resilience and Sustainability Trust. The total access to funds under the new arrangement amounts to around $1.3 billion over the next 28 months.
Porter also noted that Pakistan has made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence despite challenging global conditions over the past 18 months.
Once approved by the IMF board, Pakistan will have access to about $1 billion under the EFF, bringing the total disbursements under the program to approximately $2 billion.
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Business Recorder
15 hours ago
- Business Recorder
Local, forex issuer and senior unsecured: Moody's upgrades debt ratings to ‘Caa1'
ISLAMABAD: Moody's Ratings (Moody's) on Wednesday upgraded the government of Pakistan's local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to Caa1 from Caa2. The rating agency also upgraded the rating for the senior unsecured MTN programme to (P)Caa1 from (P)Caa2 and concurrently, changed the outlook for the government of Pakistan to stable from positive. The upgrade to Caa1 reflects Pakistan's improving external position, supported by its progress in reform implementation under the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. Foreign exchange reserves are likely to continue to improve, although Pakistan will remain dependent on timely financing from official partners, it added. Govt presents 'compelling evidence' of Pakistan's economic recovery to Moody's Moody's said the upgrade to Caa1 reflects Pakistan's improving external position, supported by its progress in reform implementation under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme. It said foreign exchange reserves are likely to continue to improve, although Pakistan will remain dependent on timely financing from official partners. The rating agency said that the sovereign's fiscal position is also strengthening from very weak levels, supported by an expanding tax base. Its debt affordability has improved, but remains one of the weakest among rated sovereigns. The Caa1 rating also incorporates the country's weak governance and high political uncertainty. In the report it is further stated that the stable outlook reflects balanced risks to Pakistan's credit profile. 'On the upside, improvements in the debt service burden and external profile could be more rapid than we currently expect. On the downside, there remains risks of delays in reform implementation required to secure timely official financing, which would in turn weaken Pakistan's external position again,' Moody's remarked. Moody's said the upgrade to Caa1 from Caa2 rating also applies to the backed foreign currency senior unsecured ratings for 'The Pakistan Global Sukuk Programme Co Ltd'. 'The associated payment obligations are, in our view, direct obligations of the Government of Pakistan. Concurrently, we changed the outlook for The Pakistan Global Sukuk Programme Co Ltd to stable from positive, mirroring the stable outlook on the Government of Pakistan', it added. Concurrent to this action, Moody's also raised Pakistan's local and foreign currency country ceilings to B2 and Caa1 from B3 and Caa2, respectively. The two-notch gap between the local currency ceiling and sovereign rating is driven by the government's relatively large footprint in the economy, weak institutions, and high political and external vulnerability risk. The two-notch gap between the foreign currency ceiling and the local currency ceiling reflects incomplete capital account convertibility and relatively weak policy effectiveness. It also takes into account risks of transfer and convertibility restrictions being imposed. Moody's further stated Pakistan's external position has continued to strengthen over the past year. 'We expect further gradual improvements as progress in reform implementation under the IMF program supports financing from bilateral and multilateral partners. In turn, this contributes to continued increases in the sovereign's foreign exchange reserves, albeit from still fragile levels,' Moody's added. Moody's said Pakistan fully met its external debt obligations and added to its foreign exchange reserves in fiscal year 2025 (ending June 2025). Reserves rose to $14.3 billion as of 25 July 2025, equivalent to about ten weeks of imports. This compares with $9.4 billion at the time of its last rating action in August 2024, and is about triple the level compared to end-June 2023. The agency stated that Pakistan successfully completed the first review of the IMF programme on schedule, unlocking a $1 billion disbursement from the IMF in May 2025. It also secured a $1 billion commercial loan in June 2025, with a $500 million policy-based guarantee by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Moody's expect Pakistan to fully meet its external debt obligations for the next few years, contingent on steady progress on reform implementation and timely completion of IMF reviews. It stated the sovereign has unlocked new sources of financing with a 28-month arrangement under the IMF Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) worth about $1.4 billion and a ten-year country partnership framework with the World Bank for fiscal year 2026-2035, with an indicative financing envelope of $20 billion. Moody's pointed out that Pakistan's external position remains fragile. Its foreign exchange reserves remain well below what is required to meet is external debt obligations, underscoring the importance of steady progress with the IMF programme to continually unlock financing. It estimates Pakistan's external financing needs are about $24-25 billion in fiscal year 2026, and similar amounts again in fiscal year 2027. Moody's said Pakistan's fiscal position has improved from very weak levels, reflecting progress in implementing revenue-raising measures. The budget deficits are narrowing and primary surpluses are widening. The government debt affordability is also improving, although it remains one of the weakest among our rated sovereigns. The government has strengthened its revenue collection through a combination of better enforcement and new tax measures. Government revenues rose to about 16 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2025 from 12.6 percent in fiscal year 2024, led by a large increase in tax revenues, amounting to about 2 percentage points of GDP. The government's non-tax revenues also rose sharply due to a one-off extraordinary dividend from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the central bank. 'We expect the government to continue enhancing revenue administration and compliance, alongside the introduction of new tax measures. We estimate tax revenues to pick up by another 0.5 percentage points of GDP in fiscal year 2026. However, a decline in SBP dividends will lead to an overall narrowing of government revenue to about 15-15.5 percent of GDP,' it added. The rating agency stated that it expects the government expenditure to remain contained, even as budgeted defence spending has increased. The government has gradually cut subsidies to the power sector alongside progress with energy sector reforms. Debt servicing costs are also reduced due to declining domestic interest rates in tandem with lower policy rates. Overall, the fiscal deficit is expected to narrow further to 4.5-5percent of GDP in fiscal year 2026 (FY2025: 5.4 percent). At the same time, we expect government interest payments to absorb about 40-45percent of revenue in 2026-2027, which is a marked decline from about 60 percent in fiscal year 2024, but remains very high internationally and a key credit constraint, it added. On the upside, improvements in the debt service burden and external profile could be more significant than it currently expect. A building track-record of reforms, including revenue-raising measures, that effectively safeguard macroeconomic stability could unlock more financing. In turn, this would further strengthen foreign exchange reserves and the sovereign's external position. Pakistan's debt affordability may also improve more significantly than it currently forecast. This could come from the government implementing additional revenue measures that broaden the tax base more than it currently assume. On the downside, there remains risks of slippage in reform implementation or results, leading to delays in or withdrawing of financing support from official partners. This could in turn lead to renewed material deterioration in the sovereign's external position. A number of previous IMF programmes were not completed, in part reflecting weak governance and institutional strength, compounded by a challenging domestic political environment. Moody's said the ratings would likely be upgraded if Pakistan's debt affordability and external position improved significantly, beyond its current expectations. This would likely be linked to marked progress in reform implementation which would accelerate external financing from official and commercial sources. Continued fiscal consolidation, including through implementing revenue-raising measures, pointing to a meaningful improvement in debt affordability beyond our current expectations would also be credit positive. The rating agency said the ratings would likely be downgraded if there were evidence of a renewed material increase in government liquidity or external vulnerability risks. This could come from financing strains due to delays in or withdrawal of support from multilateral and bilateral partners, leading to a rapid and significant decline in the foreign exchange reserves. An increase in social and political risks that disrupted policymaking and undermined Pakistan's ability to secure financing would also be credit negative. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025


Business Recorder
15 hours ago
- Business Recorder
Team coming by Sept-end: $1bn 3rd IMF tranche anticipated: Aurangzeb
ISLAMABAD: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Wednesday that an International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation will visit Pakistan at the end of September, with the country expecting to receive the third tranche of $1 billion upon completion of the next review. This he stated during an informal talk with media on the occasion of 'Independence Day Celebrations,' organised by Rawalpindi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (RCCI) here on Wednesday. Preparations for the upcoming economic review were complete, he added. IMF projects Pakistan's GDP growth at 3.6% for FY26, below govt target of 4.2% Addressing the business community, Aurangzeb said that there was scope for further cut to policy rate during the ongoing calendar year, pointing to a decline in average and core inflation. 'At present, the policy rate is at 11 percent. I am always very careful that the policy rate and the market-based exchange rate are very much the purview of the central bank, the State Bank of Pakistan, and the Monetary Policy Committee,' Aurangzeb added. 'Having said that, my own view, and I am giving my personal view here, is that given the current inflation, whether it is the average inflation or the core inflation, I do think there is room to do more in terms of the policy rate, and I am very hopeful that during the course of this calendar year we will see movement in the policy rate,' he added. The finance minister said that national security and economic stability are interdependent. 'Over the past 18 months, significant steps have been taken to boost revenue, stabilise the rupee, and reduce the policy rate,' he said, adding agricultural loans have surpassed Rs2.5 trillion, debt servicing reached Rs1.0 trillion last year. The minister said the government had finalised economic growth-focused agreements with the IMF, reached a favourable tariff deal with the United States, and was working on key accords with China. Panda bonds would be issued by year-end, and a benchmark for Sukuk bonds had been set, the finance minister added. 'We are heading in the right direction,' said the minister, adding that the government was committed to providing a better environment for the business community and encouraging the private sector to lead the economy. 'Our economic and financial achievements are being recognised globally. There is hope for further improvement in the coming days.' The minister said company registrations had risen by 250,000, loans to the private sector were up 38 percent, and the government had paid one trillion rupees in debt servicing over the past year. He also pointed to reduced electricity tariffs, expected improvements in energy costs, and ongoing reforms in tax administration. He assured that taxation reforms would not burden the salaried class and that the prime minister was personally overseeing FBR's transformation. Monthly meetings with chambers would be held to address business concerns. The finance minister said that once fiscal discipline is achieved, the government's borrowing requirement will decrease, and bank and other economic institutions will reach out to the private sector. He added that the government had reduced its debt servicing by Rs1tr in the past year. 'God-willing, our debt servicing will go down by more than 1tr this year as well.' Aurangzeb said; 'We are getting our house in order, which is the federal government. And therefore, it is important that you also take whatever efforts you are making towards the private sector.' 'On the financing costs, we have moved in the right direction. On the energy side, we are beginning to move in the right direction. 'On the taxation side, the fiscal space we had and whatever we could do in this budget, I am very clear in terms of the direction of travel. We need to bring taxation to a regional competitive level,' he added, stressing that expanding the tax nets and closing the loopholes were necessary for that. Aurangzeb affirmed that the government, under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's leadership, is prioritising a business-friendly environment. He said that consumer confidence is at its peak, economic growth is at record levels, and privatisation of state-owned enterprises will accelerate this year. Aurangzeb highlighted there had been a 'record increase' of 65,000 new investors who have come into the PSX over the last year. Company registrations' annual levels had also gone above 250,000, the minister said, terming both developments as a 'big structural change.' Talking about the structural reforms, the minister pointed out the ongoing tariff reforms, which he said were taking place for the first time in Pakistan's history. Aurangzeb also pledged further reduction in energy costs due to the savings from the revised agreements with 27 independent power producers earlier this year. He highlighted that the reforms aim to explore how to reduce the costs of raw materials and intermediate products so that Pakistan could become an export-led economy. Aurangzeb said the federal government had begun a right-sizing process for 45 ministries and departments, and the privatisation of state-owned enterprises would accelerate. Pointing out that international financial institutions had hailed Pakistan's economic reforms, and that Fitch and S&P Global Ratings had upgraded the country's credit ratings this year, he added. RCCI marked Pakistan's 78th Independence Day with a flag hoisting ceremony and 'Marka e Haq' celebrations. Federal Minister for Finance, Muhammad Aurangzeb, attended as the chief guest. The event also featured the cutting of an Independence Day cake. RCCI President Usman Shaukat lauded Pakistan's journey of resilience, sacrifice, and hope over the past 78 years. Highlighting recent improvements in economic indicators, he urged the government to further lower interest rates to single digits, reduce electricity and gas tariffs, and cut tax rates to stimulate business activity and job creation. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025


Express Tribune
a day ago
- Express Tribune
Moody's lifts Pakistan's rating to ‘Caa1' on stronger external finances
Moody's said on Wednesday it had raised Pakistan's credit rating by one notch to 'Caa1' from 'Caa2' due to an improving external financial position and it assigned the country a "stable" outlook. The announcement came within hours of Pakistan's Finance Minister Mohammed Aurangzeb saying there was more room for the central bank to cut the country's key policy rate from 11% on the back of positive economic indicators. "The credit rating's improvement is a sign that economic policies are heading toward the right direction," Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a statement. Also Read: Aurangzeb vows to close tax loopholes, boost investor confidence Pakistan's international bonds rose as much as 1 cent to between 90 and 100 cents on the dollar following the ratings upgrade. It lifted most of them to their highest since early 2022 when fears of a full-blown debt crisis sent them plunging to as little as 30 cents. Moody's decision to raise the rating by one notch after Fitch and S&P did the same will help Pakistan's capability to raise external debt. Pakistan says its economy is on a recovery path after a $7 billion IMF bailout helped to stabilise it. "We changed the outlook for the Government of Pakistan to stable from positive," Moody's said in a statement. "The upgrade to Caa1 reflects Pakistan's improving external position, supported by its progress in reform implementation under the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program," it said. Pakistan's debt affordability has improved, but remains one of the weakest among rated sovereigns, Moody's said, adding that the Caa1 rating also reflected the country's weak governance and high degree of political uncertainty. Read: New Pak-US front against terror trains sights on BLA, TTP Aurangzeb told a gathering of businessmen in Islamabad ahead of the Moody's announcement that he was expecting an improvement in Pakistan's credit rating by other agencies after Fitch and S&P. "We are hopeful of progress in terms of the policy rate going south," he added. Aurangzeb said it was his personal view that there was more room for a rate cut towards the end of the year, adding that it was for the central bank to make the final call on the issue. The next policy rate announcement is due on September 15. The central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 11% on July 30, going against analyst expectations. In a Reuters poll they had forecast a reduction of 50 to 100 basis points. The bank said the inflation outlook had deteriorated due to rising energy prices. Inflation accelerated to 4.1% year-on-year in July.