Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' Advances: Here's Who Wins And Loses
President Donald Trump's sweeping legislative package is, as expected, divisive. Republicans are pitching it as 'One, Big Beautiful Bill.' Democrats are calling it 'one big beautiful betrayal.' Here's a look at some of the bill's key elements.
The Winners: The bill seeks to extend The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. That means the expiring provisions that benefit high-income and wealthy earners would be permanent.
It also seeks to eliminate federal taxes on tips and overtime pay, fulfilling some of Trump's campaign promises.
The tax breaks would reduce revenue by $4.9 trillion over the decade, but increase spending on military, defense and border security.
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So, if legislators sign the bill into law, major U.S. defense contractors like RTX Corp. (NYSE:RTX) and Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:LMT) could benefit from increased defense spending.
Other companies exposed to the defense sector including Palantir Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) and Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. (NYSE:BAH) could also benefit from increased military and defense spending.
The Losers: The cost of the tax bill will be partially balanced with new taxes on private university endowments and significant cuts to programs like Medicaid.
Stocks of major Medicaid managed care organizations could be vulnerable to enrollment volatility and premium pricing challenges if the changes are approved. Investors would be wise to monitor UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (NYSE:UNH), Centene Corp. (NYSE:CNC) and Elevance Health, Inc. (NYSE:ELV) as the bill moves through Congress.
Low-income Americans who rely on food assistance should also take note. House Republicans are proposing major changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. The program aids over 42 million Americans. The bill would shift 5% of benefit costs and 75% of administrative costs to states, up from the current 50% share for administration only. It also seeks to expand work requirements to recipients up to age 64.Democrats have criticized the move as harmful to families, while Republicans say it promotes work and cuts waste. The House Agriculture Committee has already approved $300 million in SNAP cuts to help fund tax breaks.
If the legislative package is passed, it would also be the end of many clean energy initiatives and key tax credits and would impose new fees on electric vehicles. These changes could slow the growth of the clean energy sector and make electric vehicles and renewables less competitive compared to traditional energy sources.
Clean energy stocks including Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH), First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) and Sunrun, Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) were all sharply lower on Monday as investors digested the potential effects on the industry.
The 1,116-page bill also wouldn't quell fears about America's public debt, which currently stands at $36 trillion. According to the nonpartisan watchdog group, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the bill adds approximately $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years.
What's Next: After advancing out of the House Budget Committee in a rare Sunday meeting by a narrow 17-16 vote, Trump's 'One Big, Beautiful Bill' faces several key steps before it can become law.
The next stop is the House Rules Committee, which will meet midweek to set the terms for floor debate, consider possible amendments, and make any necessary last-minute adjustments to the bill before it heads to a full vote on the House floor.
If the bill passes the House, it will move to the Senate where it may face additional challenges, as Republican senators are also seeking changes that could complicate final passage.
Further changes to the bill are possible as leaders work to secure enough support from both conservative and moderate factions.
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