March Madness: Predicting NCAA Tournament Finals results between Florida and Houston
Monday night features the 2025 NCAA Tournament Finals matchup between the Florida Gators and Houston Cougars — a pair of top-seeded schools that have fought tooth and nail to reach the men's basketball championship game.
Both teams are riding double-digit win streaks along with conference tournament crowns entering this epic March Madness matchup while approaching the game from seemingly opposite directions. Florida is a famously offensive-minded team, while Houston's laurels rest on its punishing defense; however, both programs are also top-10 teams in the opposite categories, making this an evenly-matched event.
With mere hours remaining before the opening tipoff, USA TODAY Sports' staff offered their predictions for the national championship game, with the majority leaning toward the Cougars. Here is a look at their respective takes.
READ MORE: Gators Wire's expert predictions for Florida vs Houston in NCAA Finals
Jordan Mendoza: Houston 72, Florida 69
"After each team pulled off second-half comebacks in the Final Four, which one has enough left to win the national title? Houston proved it could slow down a premier offense like Duke, but no one has had an answer for Walter Clayton Jr. this tournament," Mendozza notes.
"Given the 'never quit' mentality each team possesses, expect this one to go down to the final minutes. The Cougars hit their 3-pointers and are able to limit the Florida star, and they fend off a late rally by the Gators to win their first national championship."
Paul Myerberg: Houston 71, Florida 63
"Houston carries over the ferocious rally in the final minutes against Duke and slows down Florida's perimeter shooting to win the first national title in program history. In addition to its No. 1 defense, the Cougars have another edge in the turnover battle," Myerberg begins.
"They rank third in Division in turnover margin while Florida ranks 118th. Houston also leads the nation in 3-point shooting percentage, potentially negating the Gators' typical production from deep."
Erick Smith: Florida 66, Houston 65
"We use cliches in sports like the irresistible force facing the immovable object way too often. This matchup, however, does present a simple premise: Which team will be able to dictate how the game is played? Florida wants to go fast to take advantage of its open-court game and also diminish the half-court defense of Houston," Smith said.
"The Cougars, meanwhile, want to slow the game down and make it a grinder. It's hard to see either dominating, and that forecasts a close game down the wire. The Gators have the best clutch player on the court in Walter Clayton Jr. And he does it again for the SEC's first title since 2012."
Eddie Timanus: Florida 68, Houston 65
"Picking against Houston at this point seems like a bad idea given the way it has shown the ability to find ways to win in the most difficult of circumstances. Of course the same can be said of the Gators, who have also staged an improbable comeback or two this postseason," Timanus explains.
"So one more time, I'll stick with my choice from the beginning."
Blake Toppmeyer: Houston 75, Florida 71
"I picked Houston to beat Florida in the national championship before the tournament tipped, so I wouldn't dare fade that pick now. Houston's experienced lineup, elite defense and clutch shot-making ability uphold the Cougars as a strong pick. Florida's Walter Clayton Jr. has been the nation's best player for the past several weeks. Stellar though he is, Houston counters with a variety of proven weapons," Toppenmeyer points out.
"This game should be a great show. Get the popcorn ready."
Dan Wolken: Houston 61, Florida 57
"Both teams have pulled out improbable victories in the NCAA tournament to get to this point, so both may feel that a championship is their destiny. But the Cougars' relentlessness and ability to take away what an opponent does best is the intangible that just wears people out," Wolken offers.
"Houston may not have the most talent, but they've got plenty to hang in a close game, which is the area where they thrive. Betting against Kelvin Sampson with a 40-hour turnaround seems like a bad idea."
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