The stock market will be 'severely tested' by Trump's tariffs

Yahoo

03-04-2025

President Trump far exceeded Wall Street's worst fears with his "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, prompting many strategists to reconsider their previously optimistic outlooks.
"Whether the Bull Market has ended and a Bear Market has begun will be contingent on all politicians' response, domestic and foreign, to 'Liberation Day," Julian Emanuel, who leads the equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday night. "Our base case is that the Bull Market is being severely tested but will remain intact."
Stocks sold-off swiftly as markets digested the tariff announcements. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the sell-off, plummeting over 5%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dove near 4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) tumbled roughly 3.5%, or almost 1,500 points.
Thursday's losses intensified a month-long sell-off in stocks that had already prompted several Wall Street strategist to temper their expectations for the S&P 500. Now with Trump's large tariffs further clouding the outlook, strategists are mapping out how much further the benchmark index could sink.
The concern among strategists isn't just about the totality of Trump's current tariffs which include up to 54% duties on China and 20% levies on the European Union. That alone could bring the US economy to the "precipice of recession," according to Bank of America economists.
The larger fear centers around how other countries will respond to the US tariffs, the potential knock on effects from any reciprocal tariffs and the further downside risks that would pose to the stock market.
Evercore's Emanuel added that retaliatory tariffs would "open further near-term downside for stocks," and could push the S&P 500 down toward its 200-week moving average of 4,677. This would represent about another 15% drop in the benchmark index.
RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients that if the sell-down in the S&P 500 holds below the recent market bottom of 5,521, she'd be increasingly concerned about a "growth scare in stocks." To Calvasina, this would represent a range of a 14%-20% drawdown from the S&P 500's most recent all-time high and send the benchmark index as low as 4,900.
"If that occurs, the 'bear case' that we mapped out several weeks ago of 5,550 at year-end 2025 may end up being a much more appropriate year-end price target for the S&P 500 than our current 'base case' target of 6,200," Calvasina wrote.
Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert points out that even as more clarity on tariffs emerges, exactly what that means for companies on an individual basis remains to be seen. Chronert wrote in a note to clients he expects cuts to 2025 earnings estimates over the next few weeks.
Chronert's team had been highlighting that 5,500 on the S&P 500, a level the index is currently below, would be a point where buying stocks looked more favorable. But that "is clearly reliant on negotiation dynamics in coming weeks." This, Chronert added, makes their bear case of 5,100 "incrementally in play."
"We need to respect the news flow for the fundamentally disruptive dynamic it may create," Chronert wrote. "Yet, at the same time, we are reluctant to chase prices materially lower as there are still many aspects to this policy saga yet to play out."
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.