2025-26 NFL MVP odds: Three value bets in a competitive field
Since Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson ran away with the trophy in 2012, 12 straight quarterbacks have claimed MVP honors, including the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen last season in a close vote over Lamar Jackson. In fact, since its inception in 1957, 48 have gone to QBs. It's a quarterback's world — everyone else is just trying to get votes.
While the MVP still belongs to signal-callers, non-QBs have crept into the conversation more and more in recent years. In fact, 10 non-quarterbacks have finished in the top 10 of MVP voting over the last few seasons:
A.J. Brown
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry
Ja'Marr Chase
Justin Jefferson
Micah Parsons
Myles Garrett
Nick Bosa
Saquon Barkley
Tyreek Hill (twice)
That's a wide range of elite playmakers, and it proves voters are willing to consider positional value outside of the quarterback spot — at least for a seat at the table. But can one of them actually win it? Probably not, unless something truly historic happens. Remember that Barkley had an unbelievable season rushing for 2,005 yards and still didn't win MVP.
If you're scanning MVP odds, one thing is impossible to ignore: MVPs don't come from bad teams. Period. The last 37 MVPs all played on teams that entered the season with 30-1 or shorter odds to win the Super Bowl. That's not just a fluke — it's a clear indicator that to win MVP, your team must be thought to be in contention before the season even starts.
Using current futures, that gives us a field of just 17 teams. We know the three big names close to the top of the odds board: Lamar Jackson (+550), Josh Allen (+600) and Patrick Mahomes (+650) are the consensus front-runners — and for good reason.
But let's look beyond that big three and spotlight some players who not only have MVP-caliber talent, but also fit the all-important team profile.
Here are three QBs I believe provide some betting value in the 2025-26 NFL MVP market:
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+600)
Burrow's MVP case is built on performance and polish. He returned to form last year, playing all 17 games, leading the NFL in passing yards, tying for the league lead in total TDs and earning Comeback Player of the Year. The only issue? The Bengals missed the playoffs with a 9-8 record. With the defense often struggling, Burrow found himself forcing shootouts in an effort to give his team a chance to win, an effort that produced a fourth-place vote in the MVP race but was No. 1 in Win Shares.
The Bengals revamped their defense by hiring Al Golden and added help across the board in free agency. This is an 'all in' roster — and if the Bengals contend, Burrow's numbers will speak for themselves. A season win total of 9.5 juiced to the over shows oddsmakers believe double-digit wins are possible for Cincinnati.
There is one twist: WR Ja'Marr Chase may become Burrow's competition if he posts a historic season.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (20-1)
In 2024, Herbert threw just three interceptions, had the highest deep-ball TD rate and finished with a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio, second only to Jackson. The problem? His receivers dropped a league-high 6.6% of his passes.
Drafting a WR like Ole Miss standout Tre Harris feels like a quality step toward to fixing the wideout woes of last season. With the issues Herbert's supporting crew ran into last season, it still was not enough to stop him from posting the third-highest WAR of all starting QBs, as well as posting many of the highest single-game passer ratings of his career.
Enter Jim Harbaugh. The head coach is rebuilding the Chargers' identity with a power run game, headlined by Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton. The expectation? Open up the field for Herbert to thrive. If the Chargers put together a double-digit win season, Herbert's clean play and explosive ceiling could make him a live MVP threat — especially at this number.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (25-1)
After two years as a starter, it's time for Love to prove he's worth the $220 million contract the Packers handed him. Luckily, he's got some help. The Packers used premium picks on WRs Matthew Golden and Savion Williams in the 2025 NFL Draft, and added veteran guard Aaron Banks to shore up the offensive line. Love already finished 2024 ranked top 10 in nearly every advanced QB metric, but inconsistency and injuries held him back.
If the young receivers make a leap and Love leads the Packers to double-digit wins, he'll have a real case — especially if he continues to stretch the field like he did in the second half of last season.
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