Irish economy expands by almost 10% as exporters rush to beat tariff deadlines
tariffs
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Central Statistics Office (CSO)
data show the economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), expanded by 9.7 per cent in January, February and March, one of the largest quarterly expansions on record.
The agency said the increase was 'driven by significant growth in exports of goods'.
Total exports expanded by 9.4 per cent in the first three months or by €18.2 billion with goods exports increasing by 14.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter, or €13.5 billion. The value of goods exports for the period was 44.1 per cent higher than a year earlier.
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Since April 5th, goods imported from all countries into the US have been subject to a 10 per cent tariff while US President Donald Trump has put a stay on a possible 50 per cent tariff on all EU imports until next month.
Pharma accounts for the lion's share of Irish goods exports to the US and companies in the sector here have been fast-tracking product into the US to avoid incoming tariffs.
The CSO's figures show the pharma-dominated
i
ndustry sector expanded by 17.1 per cent in the first quarter compared with the previous three-month period.
By contrast, the domestic economy, as measured by modified domestic demand (MDD), grew by a more modest 0.8 per cent in the first quarter as personal spending on goods and services, a key driver of domestic activity, increased by 0.6 per cent.
The information and communication sector, which contains the State's tech industry, posted an increase of 3.8 per cent over the same period.
'Today's GDP estimates for the first quarter of the year show that the Irish economy kicked off 2025 to a racing start,' said Robert Purdue, head of dealing at Ebury (Ireland).
'Irish exports took the lion's share of this growth as many businesses rushed to export goods to the United States before President Trump's tariff sanctions came into effect,' he said.
'While the GDP rebound is an encouraging sign of the resilience of the Irish economy, it also demonstrates its heavy exposure to trade challenges, with exports playing a vital role in the health of the economy,' he said.
Separate figures from the CSO put the State's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May at 4 per cent, down from a rate of 4.1 per cent.
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Irish Independent
an hour ago
- Irish Independent
US confirms 15pc tariff to include pharma, but more ‘horse trading' yet to come
A fact sheet published on the White House website yesterday showed the tariff rate would apply to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The clarification should bring an end to the confusion that has surrounded this aspect of the EU-US trade deal, which was finalised by US president Donald Trump and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday. The multinationals based here, such as Pfizer and Eli Lilly, export about €40bn of pharma to the US each year. There is still uncertainly over many key issues, with discussions continuing on whether products such as wine and spirits will be exempt from the 15pc rate. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick cast many of the issues surrounding the US-EU trade pact as still up for discussion, saying there was 'plenty of horse trading left to do'. EU Commission trade spokesperson Olof Gill described the framework trade agreement yesterday as a 'political commitment', rather than a legally binding document. He said that Brussels and Washington were now working on a joint statement, which will be treated as 'an agreement in principle', that will give the bloc a 'political road map to where we take it from here'. 'Both sides are working very hard now to get the details of that signed up,' he told RTÉ Radio 1. 'We're hoping to do that before the deadline of August 1 set by the US. 'What we're talking about here are political commitments. This joint statement I mentioned isn't a legally binding document. These are commitments.' In relation to agriculture and the fact that Northern Ireland and the Republic have two different tariffs applied to their goods, he said details 'can be worked out'. ADVERTISEMENT 'We're not at the end of the process here, we're at the start of the process,' he said. There is still scepticism that the EU will be able to fulfil its promise to buy $750bn (€650bn) of American energy over three years. The bloc's energy imports from the US were less than $80bn last year. The fact sheet published yesterday by the US stated: 'As part of President Trump's strategy to establish balanced trade, the European Union will pay the United States a tariff rate of 15pc, including on autos and auto parts, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.' The sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminium and copper will remain unchanged, with the EU continuing to pay 50pc. Deal creates enormous opportunities for American-made and American-grown goods The fact sheet claimed that the 'colossal' trade deal will enable American farmers, the fishing industry and manufacturers to increase their sales to the EU, thereby reducing the trade deficit. It also said the EU will remove all tariffs on US industrial goods that it imports, which creates 'enormous opportunities for American-made and American-grown goods to compete and win in Europe'. In terms of US food imports to Europe, the fact sheet said the two sides will work together to address non-tariff barriers that affect trade. These barriers are likely to include certain food standards that are applied to beef and chicken, and 'streamlining requirements for sanitary certificates for US pork and dairy products'. Mr Trump's administration is conducting a separate investigation of pharma imports to America to assess if over-reliance on them is a threat to national security. The expectation is that the results of this investigation, expected next month, will lead to a hefty tariff on pharma. Mr Trump has threatened a levy of up to 200pc as he attempts to strong-arm US pharma companies to re-shore their manufacturing operations in America. Niall Cunneen, associate partner for Ireland and the UK at global consultancy group Sia, described the White House confirmation of the 15pc tariff rate as a 'blow to Ireland'. 'This is a sector that underpins roughly 20pc of our GDP and employs tens of thousands of people in high-value roles across the country,' he told the Irish Independent. 'The idea that this could be swept up in a political deal, without legal guarantees or clear carve-outs, is concerning.' 'If the US follows through with additional pressure under the Section 232 investigation, we could face a slow erosion of future investment and a lasting effect on long-term planning from multinationals based here. 'We're now looking at a future where one of our most important industries is directly exposed to US political cycles and trade tactics.' Public Expenditure Minister Jack Chambers said yesterday that the risk of a 30pc tariff would have been 'severely damaging for the Irish economy' and said the 'stability and the predictability of what's being set out here gives ... certainty to the business community, and gives certainty to investments'.
Irish Times
an hour ago
- Irish Times
Is it sensible to buy a house together in Ireland if you're not married?
Ireland is in love with cohabiting. Indeed, couples here have been shacking up together without marrying at a rapidly increasing rate. If you're saving for a house , or someone is struggling with rent, living together can make financial sense too – just don't forget to protect yourself. Upward trend Since the financial crash, couples here have become a whole lot more enamoured, it might seem. The number of those living together without children rose by 6 per cent between 2011 and 2016, CSO figures show. This increase then almost tripled, with a further 17 per cent rise recorded in Census 2022. There were almost 80,000 cohabiting couples without children recorded in that census; there were more than 85,000 cohabiting with children. A living arrangement seen as anything from bohemian to deviant a few decades ago is now unremarkable. In a housing and cost-of-living crisis, the home economics can work too. There are few more significant ways to commit to someone than by sharing a home – just know that mixing property and finances when you're not married can get tricky. Saving for a deposit One in three first-time-buyer homes now exceed €400,000 in value, according to the latest Banking and Payments Federation figures. These buyers, whose average age is now 36, are having to come up with a €40,000 deposit at least. With national average rents surpassing €2,000 a month, according to amassing a house deposit as an individual can seem unattainable. Living and saving together as a couple can speed things up. Committing to the future financial goal of home ownership bodes well for a relationship. An account where savings are combined can give a better return on lump sum deposit accounts or saving accounts. Just make sure the savings account is in joint names, that you both know the account password and have visibility of what's going in and out, says solicitor Niamh Moran of Carmody Moran solicitors. There is a move away from marriage. It's almost thought of as an old-fashioned concept. But marriage does bring certainty. You are potentially in a greyer area with cohabiting — Niamh Moran 'You would be minded to keep a record of what you are putting in, and make sure the money is in joint names. Know the amount, particularly if it has amassed to being a large sum,' says Moran. If either of you receives a large lump sum, such as redundancy or inheritance money, you could decide to ringfence it in a separate account. When buying a house together, your solicitor can itemise in a 'completion statement' who contributed what. If you split up, or if something happens to your partner, accessing funds in a bank account in their name only could be very difficult. As a cohabitant, you are not automatically their next of kin. 'There is a move away from marriage. It's almost thought of as an old-fashioned concept. But marriage does bring certainty. You are potentially in a greyer area with cohabiting; you are not in as solid ground,' says Moran. If you are living with someone and they die without a will, you have no automatic right to any share of 'their' money, no matter how long you have been together. 'Be aware. You are not a married couple, you don't have automatic entitlement, so in the event of a break-up or a death, the situation isn't entirely clear. So it's no harm to keep records,' says Moran. Moving in to 'your' place With rents through the roof, it's no wonder boyfriends or girlfriends are moving in. If you or your parents own the property, however, know that your love can acquire rights. Two types of law can apply in this situation, says solicitor Keith Walsh. The first has to do with gaining equity in the property – so if someone moves in and contributes to, or puts money into a property owned by someone else, they can be entitled to get it out, says Walsh. 'If your partner starts to pay the mortgage or contributes substantially to any structural-type repairs or direct costs in the home, they could be establishing some sort of equity interest in it,' he says. If, for example, a parent owns a property, and their daughter takes on the mortgage, she is gaining an interest in the property. If her partner puts money into the couple's joint account and that account is paying the mortgage, that potentially gives the partner an equitable interest in the property, says Walsh. If money is being paid towards the home, it's important to say that the purpose of the money is rent, he says. 'They can pay as much rent as they like and they are never going to acquire an interest in the property,' says Walsh. However, the rent is taxable, he says. Indirect contributions of labour or money towards renovation of the property can also count in a claim for equity in the property, says Moran. Financial dependence Where one cohabiting partner is financially dependent on the other, they can also make a claim for redress. This redress scheme is to protect financially dependent cohabitants should the relationship end due to a break-up or death. To qualify, you must have been living together with a partner in an intimate and committed relationship for at least five years, or two years if you have a child, and be financially dependent on them. Most cohabitants working without children are not going to be financially dependent on each other, says Walsh. 'You could argue, however, if you are staying in a property owned by your partner's parents, not paying rent, and you have forgone chances to buy a house, that you are financially dependent because you are getting free accommodation as part of the relationship,' he says. 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The difficulty can be that people fall into living together without anticipating the long-term consequences. Inheritance implications Cohabitants should know that if one of you dies without a will, you have no automatic right to any share of the other's property, money or possessions – no matter how long you have been together. Even if your partner has made a will, you will pay Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT) at 33 per cent on gifts or inheritance over €16,250. Had you married, you would be automatically entitled to your spouse's whole estate, tax-free if there was no will, or two thirds of it if there was no will and they had children. Cohabitants should know that being in a long-term, committed relationship where you are not married means that the surviving partner can pay significantly more inheritance tax if the other dies. Thinking of breaking up? If you've been living together, you want to break up and you are worried about your blended finances, take legal advice before pulling the plug, says Moran. 'Sit down and look at it with someone impartially and plan for what might happen,' she says. If you have difficulty agreeing who is owed what, mediation will be less costly than legal proceedings. Couples can mitigate disputes by being clear-headed before they move in. 'I see these things when they get contentious. It causes stress and upset and takes time to resolve,' says Moran. 'The best thing is to deal with it at the outset and not let yourself drift into a situation because problems do arise.'
RTÉ News
3 hours ago
- RTÉ News
IMF lifts 2025 global growth forecast on tariff distortion
The IMF has today raised its global growth forecast as efforts to circumvent Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs sparked a bigger-than-expected surge in trade, while the US president stepped back from some of his harshest threats. But the International Monetary Fund still sees growth slowing this year, even as it lifted its 2025 projection to 3% - up from 2.8% in April - in its World Economic Outlook update. In 2024, global growth came in at 3.3%. Looking ahead, the IMF expects the world economy to expand 3.1% next year, an improvement from the 3% it earlier predicted. Despite the upward revisions, "there are reasons to be very cautious," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told AFP. "Businesses were trying to frontload, move stuff around, before the tariffs were imposed, and so that's supporting economic activity," he said. "There is going to be payback for that. If you stock the shelves now, you don't need to stock them later in the year or into the next year," he added. This means a likelihood of reduced trade activity in the second half of the year, and into 2026. "The global economy has continued to hold steady, but the composition of activity points to distortions from tariffs, rather than underlying robustness," the IMF's report said. Since returning to the White House, Trump has imposed a 10% levy on almost all trading partners and steeper duties on cars, steel and aluminum. But he paused higher tariffs on dozens of economies until August 1, a significant delay from April when they were first unveiled. Washington and Beijing also agreed to lower for 90 days triple-digit duties on each other's goods, in a pause set to expire August 12, although talks that could lead to a further extension of the truce are ongoing. Trump's actions so far have brought the US effective tariff rate to 17.3%, significantly above the 3.5% level for the rest of the world, the IMF said. US inflation hit Among major economies, US growth for 2025 was revised 0.1 percentage points up, to 1.9%, with tariff rates anticipated to settle at lower levels than initially announced in April. The US economy is also set to see a near-term boost from Trump's flagship tax and spending bill. Growth for the euro area was adjusted 0.2 percentage points higher to 1%, but this partially reflected a jump in Irish pharmaceutical exports to the US to avoid fresh duties. Among European economies, Germany is still expected to avoid contraction while forecasts for France and Spain remained unchanged at 0.6% and 2.5% respectively. While the IMF anticipates global inflation to keep declining, with headline inflation cooling to 4.2% this year, it warned that price increases will remain above above target in the US. "The tariffs, acting as a supply shock, are expected to pass through to US consumer prices gradually and hit inflation in the second half of 2025," the IMF report said. Elsewhere, Trump's duties "constitute a negative demand shock, lowering inflationary pressures," the report added. China challenges Growth in the world's second biggest economy China, however, was revised sharply upwards by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%. This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025, alongside "the significant reduction in US-China tariffs," the IMF said. But Gourinchas warned that China is still experiencing headwinds, with "fairly weak" domestic demand. "There is relatively little consumer confidence, the property sector is still a black spot in the Chinese economy, it's not been completely addressed," he added. "And that is resulting in a drag on economic activity going forward." Meanwhile, growth in Russia was revised 0.6 percentage points down, to 0.9%. This was in part due to Russian policies, but also oil prices which are set to remain relatively subdued compared to 2024 levels, Gourinchas said.
