How Texas Could Help Donald Trump Thwart Democratic Gains in 2026 Midterm

Newsweek

4 days ago

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Texas Republicans are mulling a plan that could help thwart potential Democratic gains in the 2026 midterms.
Why It Matters
Democrats are hoping for a 2018-esque "blue wave" that will carry them to victory in key races across the country and help them retake a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. However, Texas Republicans are now considering a mid-decade redistricting of their congressional districts, in hopes of giving Republicans a chance to flip Democratic-held seats in the Lone Star State. If successful, this plan could offset potential losses in other states.
One Democratic strategist told Newsweek the plan could be a "catastrophe" for state Democrats.
Newsweek reached out to the White House and Texas Governor Greg Abbott for comment via email.
What To Know
Texas Republicans met Monday to discuss a proposal to redraw Texas's congressional boundary lines, Representative Pete Sessions, whose expansive district includes areas near Round Rock, Waco and Lufkin, told The Texas Tribune.
Few details about the meeting were made public, and Sessions told the publication there would be another meeting to discuss data. The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Trump's political team has discussed whether to redraw the state's districts in a way to bolster Republicans ahead of the midterms.
Typically, the president's party loses seats during the midterms. In 2018, Trump's first midterm, Democrats gained 41 House seats. Democrats are hoping that if Trump's approval rating does not improve by next November, they could see similar returns in next year's election.
Abbott has the authority to call a special legislative session required for such a redistricting effort, and it's unclear whether he is willing to do so. Mid-decade redistricting is rare, although it does occur from time to time, typically after a court declares a map unconstitutional.
President Donald Trump speaks in Austin, Texas, on October 25, 2024.
President Donald Trump speaks in Austin, Texas, on October 25, 2024.Texas Democratic strategist Joel Montfort told Newsweek that any attempts to "gerrymander" Texas's congressional districts would be a "real catastrophe for Democratic representation in Texas," and likely violate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
"The Texas GOP has consistently redrawn Texas congressional districts to their advantage, denying Democrats their fair representation in our state. While we typically represent 45 percent of the total votes in any given election in our state, we only have 13 representatives (40 percent) of the 38 in the Texas delegation," he said.
Montfort specifically pointed to two Trump-won seats, currently represented by Democrats in South Texas, as vulnerable to being redrawn. Those seats are the 28th District, held by Representative Henry Cuellar, and the 34th District, held by Representative Vicente Gonzalez.
Those are both former Democratic strongholds that shifted toward Republicans last year amid a nationwide rightward shift among Hispanic voters. South Texas experienced some of the most pronounced Republican swings in the country, with Trump delivering the strongest GOP performance in years.
"Both of these seats were won by the Democrat by 5 points or less in 2024 and would be targets if the GOP attempted to redistrict now," Montfort said. "I expect Democrats to have a very strong showing next year, similar to 2018, where we picked up [two] congressional seats, one of which was Pete Sessions' old district 32."
However, Mark Jones, a fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and a political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek that Republicans may not actually benefit from a redraw, describing the idea that Republicans could make sizable gains as a "fantasy."
"Back in 2021, they maximized to the best of their ability the number of U.S. House seats in their possession," Jones said. "They're now at a point where there's simply nothing left for them to pick off."
Redrawing the lines could be risky for Republicans, he said.
If Republicans run the risk of redrawing districts held by Cuellar and Gonzalez, they could run the risk of stretching Republican voters out through so many districts that GOP Representatives Tony Gonzalez or Monica De La Cruz—who also represent once-competitive but now more solidly Republican districts—could find themselves in closer races.
Texas, a reliably Republican state, shifted toward Democrats in the 2010s. Democrats flipped two seats in Texas, one near Houston and one near Dallas, in 2018, and came close to flipping a third in 2020. Republicans' margins in several other once-safe seats dwindled to the single digits by the end of the decade.
In redistricting, those districts were redrawn to give Republican incumbents more cushioning. Those seats, which flipped in 2018 by Democratic Representatives Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred, were redrawn to be more solidly Democratic, taking in Democratic voters from those increasingly competitive GOP-held districts.
Any efforts to redraw the map would likely be fought "aggressively by the court" and could potentially "drag the process beyond the 2026 midterm elections," Joshua Blank, who runs the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Newsweek.
"Texas is an attractive place for the president to focus his efforts on maintain a congressional majority. Its size, and in turn, the number of seats available to consider, but also Texas' demonstrated willingness to partner with the president on his goals, make it the obvious target for this effort to avoid the electorate as its currently constructed," he said.
Still, he said it is a "huge ask," as it would require Republicans to make their own seats less safe "for a return that might only be guaranteed for one election, if that."
Neither Trump nor Abbott, a Republican, has publicly weighed in on the plan. Other Texas Republicans have also not commented, so it's unclear whether they support the redistricting effort.
What People Are Saying
Joshua Blank told Newsweek: "While the initial focus has been on how many seats the Republicans might be able to pick up, which is likely very few, it's also possible that this effort might in the service of protecting Republicans who might find defending their seats challenging with Trump in the White House in 2026."
Democratic activist Olivia Julianna wrote on X (formerly Twitter): "In case you're wondering how confident Republicans are about the midterms— Trump's team is trying to force Texas to redraw our House map so they can tilt the house majority in 2026."
Texas Representative Pete Sessions told The Texas Tribune: "We want to make sure all of our members, even those that are brand new, have an opportunity to see this for what it is."
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report classifies three House races as competitive for 2026—the seat held by Cuellar is "Lean Democrat," the seat held by Gonzalez is a "toss-up," and the seat held by De La Cruz is "Likely Republican."