Early-Stage Technology Disruptions and Trends Set to Define the Future of Business Systems

Los Angeles Times

4 hours ago

Researchers point to technologies addressing GenAI-enabled code architecture, disinformation security and surface asset management as the most likely to be widely adopted by businesses by 2030, while leaders find themselves reassessing cloud usage and not overlooking the ever-growing need for effective cybersecurity solutions
Through its research and surveys of C-suiters, Gartner, Inc. has identified the most likely emerging technology disruptions that will impact businesses and define the future of business systems. Technology leaders are clearly prioritizing these over the next five years, as they present competitive opportunities in the near term and will eventually grow to become standard throughout businesses.
'Technology leaders must take action now to gain a first-mover advantage with these technologies,' said Bill Ray, distinguished VP analyst at Gartner. 'Innovative advancements like generative AI-enabled code architecture, disinformation security and Earth intelligence will provide the differentiation needed to help enterprises pull ahead of the pack in terms of data and product offerings.'
Each disruptor is significant in its own right, but in combination, they start to define broader emerging solutions to new business practices. For example, advancing GenAI technologies will spawn new solutions around Earth intelligence and business simulation, spur the expansive growth of domainspecific language models and lead to higher functioning tools.
GenAI solutions systems using free-form text and multimedia inputs/outputs will displace the conventional form-oriented sequential UI in established enterprise applications and enable new user scenarios.
'To remain competitive, traditional enterprise application software vendors will need to refactor applications to serve composable GenAI solutions that are invoked on demand via textual and multimodal prompts,' said Ray Valdes, VP analyst at Gartner.
Because of this, Gartner predicts that by 2029, more than 50% of user interactions linked to enterprise business processes will leverage large language models to bypass the UI layer in traditional enterprise applications, up from less than 5% today.
Disinformation security is an emerging discipline focused on threats from outside the corporate-controlled network. It includes a suite of technologies, such as deepfake detection, impersonation prevention and reputation protection, which can address disinformation to help enterprises discern trust, protect their brand and secure their online presence.
Gartner predicts that by 2030, at least half of enterprises will have adopted products or services to address disinformation security, up from less than 5% in 2024.
'Disinformation attacks use external infrastructure, like social media, and originate from areas with limited legal oversight,' said Alfredo Ramirez IV, senior director analyst at Gartner. 'Tech leaders must add 'disinformation-proofing' to products by using AI/machine learning for content verification and data provenance tracking to help users discern the truth.'
Gartner predicts that by 2028, 80% of major Earth surface assets globally will be monitored by active satellites. Earth intelligence tech uses AI to analyze satellite, aerial and ground data to monitor Earth's assets and activities, providing insights for decision-making.
'That doesn't mean maps and charts. Earth intelligence is delivering numbers on global nickel production, theme park revenue and the health of wheat crops, to name just a few,' said Ray.
Given the breadth of applications, Earth intelligence is applicable to all industries and enterprises. Defense has been the first adopter, but improvements in the quality of data and analysis techniques have rapidly expanded the use cases. The Earth intelligence market is now divided between those who capture the data, those who interpret and analyze it and those who generate industry-specific insights.
'Earth intelligence applies to every business,' said Ray. 'Enterprises can gain an early advantage by creatively and strategically applying Earth intelligence to significantly enhance specific functionalities of existing systems or to compete via new net capabilities.'
In a separate research report, Gartner has also announced the top trends shaping the future of cloud adoption over the next four years. These include cloud dissatisfaction, AI/machine learning (ML), multicloud, sustainability, digital sovereignty and industry solutions.
Joe Rogus, director, advisory at Gartner, said, 'These trends are accelerating the shift in how cloud is transforming from a technology enabler to a business disruptor and necessity for most organizations. Over the next few years, cloud will continue to unlock new business models, competitive advantages and ways of achieving business missions.'
Cloud adoption continues to grow, but not all implementations succeed. Gartner predicts 25% of organizations will have experienced significant dissatisfaction with their cloud adoption by 2028, due to unrealistic expectations, suboptimal implementation and/or uncontrolled costs.
To remain competitive, enterprises need a clear cloud strategy and effective execution. Gartner research indicates that those who have successfully addressed upfront strategic focus by 2029 will find their cloud dissatisfaction will decrease.
Gartner also predicts 50% of cloud computing resources will be devoted to AI workloads by 2029, up from less than 10% today.
'This all points to a fivefold increase in AI-related cloud workloads by 2029,' said Rogus. 'Now is the time for organizations to assess whether their data centers and cloud strategies are ready to handle this surge in AI and ML demand. In many cases, they might need to bring AI to where the data is to support this growth.'
Many organizations that have adopted multicloud architecture find connecting to and between providers a challenge. This lack of interoperability between environments can slow cloud adoption, with Gartner predicting more than 50% of organizations will not get the expected results from their multicloud implementations by 2029.
Gartner recommends identifying specific use cases and planning for distributed apps and data in the organization that could benefit from a cross-cloud deployment model. This enables workloads to operate collaboratively across different cloud platforms, as well as different onpremises and colocation facilities.
AI adoption, tightening privacy regulations and geopolitical tensions are also driving demand for sovereign cloud services. Organizations will be increasingly required to protect data, infrastructure and critical workloads from control by external jurisdictions and foreign government access. Gartner predicts over 50% of multinational organizations will have digital sovereign strategies by 2029, up from less than 10% today.
'As organizations proactively align their cloud strategies to address digital sovereignty requirements, there are already a wide range of offerings that will support them,' said Rogus. 'However, it's important they understand exactly what their requirements are, so they can select the right mix of solutions to safeguard their data and operational integrity.'
With all the talk of businesses onboarding GenAI and other emerging technology solutions, it's easy to overlook cybersecurity tools. CEOs, however, are not forgetting to lock the proverbial door. Gartner's research has shown that a whopping 85% of CEOs surveyed say that cybersecurity is critical for business growth moving forward.
In a survey of 456 CEOs and other senior business executives, 61% of CEOs are concerned about cybersecurity threats, driven in large part by AI's growing role in commercial activity and the political debates about the sourcing and use of advanced technologies. As risk thresholds shift, they view cybersecurity as a key driver.
'Cybersecurity is no longer just about protection; it's a critical driver for business growth,' said David Furlonger, distinguished vice president analyst and Gartner fellow. 'With 85% of CEOs recognizing its importance, security leaders have a unique opportunity to demonstrate the value of cybersecurity investments not only in safeguarding assets but also in enabling strategic business objectives.'
'Effective communication is key,' said Furlonger. 'CEOs should highlight the role of security leaders in both protecting the business and enhancing cybersecurity to drive growth. This involves, for example, assessing risks in foreign markets and intellectual property protection. Security leaders are positioned to significantly influence value generation, and they should communicate how cybersecurity aids enterprise growth.'
With regulatory changes and cybersecurity threats challenging competitiveness, CEOs said they see a direct linkage between cybersecurity capabilities and enterprise growth.
Meanwhile, C-suiters' comfort level with AI is far from established at this point. Only 44% of CIOs are deemed by their CEOs to be 'AI-savvy' according to the Gartner data. The survey revealed that 77% of CEOs believe that AI is indeed ushering in a new business era, yet they feel their organization's leading technology experts lack the knowledge and capabilities to support, drive or accelerate business outcomes in this evolving landscape.
'We have never seen such a disproportionate gap in CEOs' impressions about technological disruption,' said Furlonger. 'AI is not just an incremental change from digital business. AI is a step change in how business and society work. A significant implication is that if savviness across the C-suite is not rapidly improved, competitiveness will suffer and corporate survival will be at stake.'
CEOs perceive even the CIO, chief information security officer (CISO) and chief data officer (CDO) as lacking AI savviness.
CEOs highlighted that the top two limiting factors impacting AI's deployment and use are the inability to hire adequate numbers of skilled people and an inability to calculate value or outcomes.
'CEOs have shifted their view of AI from just a tool to a transformative way of working,' said Jennifer Carter, principal analyst at Gartner. 'This change has highlighted the importance of upskilling. As leaders recognize AI's potential and its impact on their organizations, they understand that success isn't just about hiring new talent. Instead, it's about equipping their current employees with the skills needed to seamlessly incorporate AI into everyday tasks.'